 Western Conference Picks and Previews
Denver Nuggets (8) vs. L.A. Lakers (1)
Series price: Lakers -600
Season series: Lakers won and covered all three meetings
Anyone who even remotely follows the NBA knows the Lakers made one of the best steal-trades in recent memory when they picked up Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies for a bag of shoelaces at the end of January.
The Lakers’ new center helped them vault to the top of the NBA standings and we’ve seen more smiles from Kobe Bryant in this half-season than we’ve seen in his entire previous NBA career. The Lakers rank third in the NBA in scoring and they are the fifth-most profitable team in the league at 47-33-1 ATS (against the spread).
Denver grabbed some cash at 44-38 ATS. This is no ordinary eight-seed, which you can tell by the fact that ninth-place Golden State had the best record ever for a team that didn’t make the postseason.
The Nuggets might be able to score with the Lakers, where they rank second in the league with 110 points per game. However, they have the second worst defense in the league with 107 points against per night and that’s what will ultimately decide the series.
Denver needs a huge series from Carmelo Anthony, who is shaking off the distraction of a DUI arrest this week. Allen Iverson’s playoff experience also needs to shine through for the Nugs to have a chance at the upset.
The No. 8 seed has only knocked off a No. 1 seed three times, most recently last season when the Warriors did it to the Mavs.
Pick: Lakers in five games
Dallas Mavericks (7) vs. New Orleans (2)
Series price: Hornets -160
Season series: 2-2 SU (straight up) and ATS
The Hornets were the surprise of this year’s NBA season, both for fans and bettors. They competed for top spot in the west right up to the end and they made savvy bettors a mountain of cash at 50-30-2 ATS.
Point guard Chris Paul emerged as an MVP candidate as the NBA assist and steals leader to go along with his 20.9 points per game. He gives the Hornets a chance to win every game and we never thought we’d be saying he was the best player on the court if the Mavs’ Dirk Nowitzki or Jason Kidd were out there.
Stopping Nowitzki will be a huge key for the Hornets, as will hitting the 3-ball. These teams match up spookily similarly in numbers on offense and defense, except the Hornets shoot slightly better from downtown at 39 percent.
All four games in this season series were won and covered by the home team. Both games in Dallas played under the total and both games in New Orleans played over. All four games had totals in the low 190s, so that might be a consistent trend to keep an eye out for.
Pick: Mavs in seven games
Pheonix Suns (6) vs. San Antonio Spurs (3)
Series price: Spurs -150
Season series: Phoenix 3-1 SU and ATS
The Suns’ No. 3 offense meets the Spurs’ No. 3 defense in what could be one the best 3-6 playoff matchup of all time. This marks the third time in the past four seasons these two squads will meet and there will be no love lost between them.
It’s tough to forget last year’s clash in the western semis when Boris Diaw and Amare Stoudemire were suspended in Game 4 in an incident that changed the whole series. This time around, though, the defending NBA champs will face a new threat on the Spurs.
Shaquille O’Neal has given the Suns a brutally tough front court to contend with since being acquired from the Miami Heat earlier this season. He and Stoudemire both rank in the top five in the league in field goal percentage and the Spurs lost both meetings against Phoenix this year with Shaq in the lineup.
Tim Duncan vs. Shaq is going to be a great battle in the paint. Outside, we couldn’t ask for much better than Steve Nash vs. Tony Parker. It could end up being the contributions from other players that ultimately decide this series with the stars so evenly matched.
Both teams are missing a contributing forward to injuries coming into the series – Grant Hill for the Suns and Robert Horry for the Spurs.
A few trends worth noting coming into this series: All four meetings this season played under. The underdog won all four meetings ATS this season. The Suns are 0-3-1 ATS this season when playing on three or more days of rest, so keep in mind heading into Game 1.
Pick: Suns six games
Utah Jazz (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)
Series price: Jazz -200
Season series: Utah 2-1 SU and ATS
When the Rockets lost Yao Ming for the season, everyone thought their year was finished. Only problem is, someone forgot to tell Houston that.
The Rockets ended up earning a 22-game winning streak – nine of those wins coming without Yao – and they swiped home court from under Utah’s nose in the last game of the season. Now we have a rematch of last year’s playoff series when the Jazz came back from a 3-2 series lead to win in seven games.
This year’s series will be a matchup of offense against defense with the Rockets ranking fourth in scoring defense in the league and the Jazz ranking fifth in scoring offense. Only Portand, Seattle, San Antonio and the Clippers played under the total more often than Houston this season while the Jazz were five games above .500 to the over.
Utah likes to run the floor with a balanced attack that features eight players who score at least eight points per game. Carlos Boozer leads the team with nearly 22 points per game and that's going to be a lot for Houston to handle.
The Rockets have only three players left who average double digits and six who average at least eight points per game. They’ll try to slow the game down to a half-court pace and keep Utah’s scoring in control.
Two concerns for Houston coming in: starting point guard Rafer Alston will miss at least the first few games of the series with a hamstring injury and Tracy McGrady is cold. McGrady has gone just 14-of-50 on field goals over his last three games and needs to find his shooting touch in a hurry.
Pick: Jazz in six games | 
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