Eastern Conference Previews and Picks

[Raji]

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Series price: Boston -5610
Season series: Boston 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS

How could this series end up as anything other than a sweep? The potential flaws pundits predicted we would see the restructured Celtics didn’t amount to anything but hot air. Rajon Rondo was supposed to be a liability at point guard, but instead he became a solid contributor on offense with more than 10 points per game. More importantly, he managed to take care of the ball and averaged only 1.9 turnovers per game – that’s fewer than a lot of highly touted point guards such as Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Andre Miller and Chauncey Billups.

The bench was the other potential problem with the C’s, but with the acquisition of Sam Cassell and solid play from youngsters like Leon Powe and Glen Davis, the bench is much stronger than most people thought it would be. Just look at Kendrick Perkins; he emerged to become Boston’s leading shot blocker and No. 2 rebounder.

Atlanta made solid strides to become a playoff team this year and they finished the regular season strong after Mike Bibby arrived in February. But this is a mismatch of epic proportions and it’s hard to imagine a pointspread big enough to keep bettors away from Boston.

Pick: Boston in four

Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Series price: Detroit -1100
Season series: 2-2 SU, Philadelphia 3-1 ATS

The Sixers made a shocking push that began midway through the season and hauled a heap of cash along with them to this playoff berth. The pleasant surprises in Philly included Andre Miller’s brilliant play at the point and Samuel Dalembert’s shot-blocking and all-around presence in the paint.

It’s been a renaissance of sorts in Philadelphia, but in spite of that, this series will come down to experience (which Detroit has in spades) versus a lack thereof (Philly missed the playoffs the last two years).

And it would be a mistake to make too much of the Sixers’ 3-1 ATS record against the Pistons this season. Philly had a good run, but they hit the wall near the end of the season, going 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS in the final 10 games, including four-straight losses to finish the season. They won a meaningless 101-96 victory as 4 ½-point favorites when they played Detroit on April 9 after Detroit had already clinched the No. 2 spot and most of the Pistons’ starters played limited minutes.

In the other Sixers win, in which Philly won by a single point as 8-point underdogs, the major reasons for the outcome were a slow start by Detroit which allowed Philadelphia to jump out to an early lead and an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers from the league’s best ball-handling team.

The Pistons starters have been resting up and looking to this series for the last week and a half. Nobody in the Eastern Conference has more playoff experience than the Pistons and they will be a different team than Philly faced in the last two games.

Pick: Detroit in five

Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Series price: Orlando -280
Season series: Orlando 2-1 SU & ATS

The Raptors know first-hand how treacherous life is for a three-seed. Now the Orlando Magic may find out for themselves.

Last year, Toronto won the Atlantic division after a breakout season, but ran into the New Jersey Nets in the first round and had their high hopes shattered in the early going. Although it was an upset, the Raptors weren’t the first No. 3 to lose in the first round. In fact, over the last five seasons, four three-seeds have lost an opening-round series.

Will it happen to the Magic here? Most experts like the Magic and their all-world center to lay a quick beating on the Raps and move on easily. However, Toronto is a deep and talented team. They may not be able to match up with Dwight Howard in the paint, but Toronto has the Magic seriously outclassed in the backcourt.

If the oddsmakers keep the pointspreads tight in this series, the Magic are probably the best bet, but if you start seeing numbers like the -9 ½ points Orlando was laying in their last meeting, bettors might want to take a long, hard look at Toronto. But keep in mind, the Raptors were one of the best ATS teams in the NBA for the last two years, until they finished below .500 at the pay window this year.

The Raptors are also among the top 10 teams in average attendance and have developed a dedicated following, which could make it a tougher place to play than you might think. Toronto was also horrible on the road this year and the Magic’s home-court advantage could make the difference in the end.

Pick: Orlando in seven

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards
Series price: Cavaliers -118
Season series: 2-2 SU & ATS

This is the series everyone thinks could be the “upset special,” which is fine, but when everybody’s talking about the upset it usually means the underdog will lose value on the pointspread.

All signs seem to point to a fairly balanced series – maybe even another classic like the one these teams played in ’06. They split the season series this year and the familiarity will grow as this will be the third consecutive postseason in which these teams have played in the first round.

The Wizards are hungry for a win and they haven’t been shy about saying so. DeShawn Stevenson called LeBron James “overrated” and Gilbert Arenas added, “They’ve been a .500 team ever since they made that trade and everybody wants a chance at that matchup.”

Areans also offered a little inside information on his blog regarding the Wizards potential strategy for dealing with James. He wrote: “DeShawn told Caron (Butler) that he’ll guard LeBron (sounds like a children’s nursery school rhyme) so that Caron can rest his legs. DeShawn was like, 'I’ll run him around and play D on him and get the fouls so you can just go off on the other end'.”

Agent Zero may have a point about the Cavaliers’ team chemistry since the trade, but the last thing you want to do with LeBron is poke the bear. Did he not see James single-handedly win a game in Toronto after he was taunted by some fans at courtside? He must have also missed the occasion on which James torched the Trailblazers in the fourth quarter after a similar heckling episode. How about when he answered Spike Lee’s courtside jibes by dropping 50 points on the Knicks?

Arenas wrote in his blog, “With…a player like LeBron, all you need is distractions. We got to be Bush-league.” I think Gil might be beating around the wrong bush here because an angry LeBron could make the Cavs a much better bet in this series.

Pick: Cleveland in seven

Raji