Time of year to bet baseball

[Raji]

I went through my usual routine Monday morning when I arrived at the office. I turned on my computer, grabbed a coffee and nestled in my chair to catch baseball highlights from the night before.

Ten minutes passed, then 15. Not one tricky double play or round-tripper to be found. What gives?

That’s right, it’s football season. The return of pigskin, both the college variety and the NFL, marks a shift in gears for the sports world. And that includes the betting public.

“Anytime you have a new toy like football, bettors can’t wait to escape the daily grind of baseball,” says Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner.

Football is the crown jewel of the gambling industry and it shows in the fall. But while the masses flock to the gridiron like it's a bikini carwash, the wiseguys stick behind to pillage MLB boards that reflect the industry’s change in focus.

The truth is sportsbooks don’t have the staff dedicated to September baseball like they did in midsummer when MLB was the only show in town. The work force is taken up by adjusting weekday college lines, tightening Saturday’s NCAA spreads and bracing for Sunday and Monday's NFL action.

In the midst of this football frenzy, a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Devil Rays can fall far down the list of priorities for busy oddsmakers. This lack of attention can lead to weak MLB lines.

Oddsmakers still put in the time on games involving high-profile postseason races, like this weekend’s Red Sox-Yankees series. But clubs with no hopes for October can get the cold shoulder from bookmakers.

So, how to capitalize? Picking out weak MLB lines isn’t an easy process. Sharp bettors, committed to finding value in the stingiest of MLB numbers, say it is just a matter of doing your homework and recognizing teams’ situations.

Professional handicapper and lines consultant David Malinsky notes the St. Louis Cardinals’ recent personnel issues as one of these situations. The defending world champs are without many key players and have others who are playing injured. But the Cards were only +129 road underdogs in Chicago on Monday afternoon.

“This line does not deal with the current St. Louis state of affairs properly at all, and we will take advantage,” says Malinsky, who later cashed in his play on the Cubs after Chicago's 12-3 win.

Another example of a weak MLB line was Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants number. The Giants, last in the NL West, were listed as -154 home faves with rookie sensation Tim Lincecum on the bump. The D-Backs, who lead the division, were set at +146.

“Flat-out mistakes in the marketplace – for not only did the oddsmakers open this too high, but the first folks to the windows have taken it even higher,” says Malinsky, who also made profits from his Arizona play.

Oddsmakers are putting too much weight on Lincecum’s early season efforts and failed to factor in his recent struggles, and the fact he will be on a very limited pitch count after injuring his arm last week.

Miscues like these would barely see the light of day in July, but since football has taken over the betting marketplace these types of boo-boos hold their value longer. The public doesn’t jump on a weak line as fast in September, a scenario that allows sharps to cash in on it before oddsmakers get wise and adjust.

“I don't necessarily think the oddsmakers are asleep at the wheel but the lines simply aren't moving as quickly because everyone's eyes are on the football numbers,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts, who looks forward to weak MLB lines every Saturday and Sunday.

It’s not just single game lines that get overlooked this time of year. Many teams, whether contenders or not, don’t get the same adjustment to their numbers during hot and cold streaks.

Professional handicapper David Jones points to the Texas Rangers and their recent run. The Rangers, who have no chance at the postseason, have won eight of their last 10 games heading into Tuesday. Yet they were priced like a slumping team despite being at home this past week against the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics.

“Bookmakers may take some stuff for granted,” says Jones. “There are some subtle things this time of year you need to look closely for to find.”

Raji