Yanks / Sox

[Raji]

After a near two-month hiatus, the greatest rivalry in sports returns to the diamond this week when the Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees.

With the American League playoff race at full speed heading into September, the media circus surrounding Yankee Stadium will be intense. Baseball fans won’t be able to turn the channel, flip the page, or surf the web without getting drawn into this classic grudge match.

But for most gaming industry types, Red Sox-Yankees is just another series on the schedule. Oddsmakers are aware of the attention these teams get but do a great job separating the hype from the numbers, especially when setting the total.

Both Boston and New York have talented, deep lineups that rank amongst the best offenses in the majors. When these two collide, average bettors can be tempted into playing the over, which has cashed in four straight meetings.

According to Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner, the media blitz may fool the public but wise guys won’t be swayed by the barrage of coverage. Korner, who sent out a total of 9 ½ for Tuesday’s Game 1, takes the same approach to every game despite how hyped the lineups are. He puts more weight in the starters (Daisuke Matsuzaka and Andy Pettitte on Tuesday) than anything.

The Yankees are listed as -114 favorites.

“Once the first game goes, we can line compare for the other two and look at how the games go and results,” says Korner. “We make the entire series’ prices in advance, so we will make adjustments before the next game depending how the (Game 1) results play out.”

The Red Sox and Yankees have played over in 13 of their past 20 meetings with an average combined score of 11.65, toppling an average total slightly more than 10 runs. The highest number set for these games was 11, while the lowest total was nine runs when Pettitte and Curt Schilling started back on May 23 this year.

“Because the hitters are so familiar with the pitchers I do believe this favors the overs in their matchups,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “However, I also believe this is definitely factored into the line on the totals. When these two offenses square off there tends to be some crazy results.”

Boston’s offense had a day off before traveling to New York. It scored and astonishing 46 runs over a four-game series with the Chicago White Sox this past weekend, batting .333 with seven home runs.

The Red Sox are averaging 9.6 runs per game in their last eight victories. In August, they are hitting .296 and driving in over six runs per contest. Boston has gone over the total in 15 of its 25 games this month.

“You have to go team-by-team and Boston is hot, but this series (with the Yankees) is totally different from Chicago,” says Korner. “You can’t take too much to heart what happens in a series with a team that is out of it like the White Sox.”

The Yankees, who trail the Red Sox by 7 ½ games in the AL East as of Monday, are only two games out of the AL wild card spot. New York’s power at the plate this month is the reason for its drastic second-half turnaround.

The Bronx Bombers are batting .310 in the month of August and driving in 6.79 runs per contests. In the 24 games this month, New York has an over/under record of 14-9-1 and leans toward the over at home with a season tally of 32-28-5 at Yankee Stadium.

If both offenses continue their August forms this week, books could bump up the Game 2 and Game 3 totals into the double-figure range. Some handicappers don’t have a problem making plays on the over when the total skyrockets but others are more hesitant.

“From a personal standpoint any time it gets into double figures there are some headaches,” says lines consultant and handicapper David Malinsky. “Once a total goes past 10 runs it means that not only must the starters be hit hard, but the bullpens also have to give up runs as well.”

The pitching staffs for both teams have remained fairly constant with their season numbers this month. Boston has a collective team ERA of 3.62 in August and will give the ball the Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett (12-11 over/under) on Wednesday and veteran hurler Curt Schilling (9-10 over/under) in Thursday’s series finale.

The Yankees 5.04 team ERA in August is above their season number but they have received improved efforts from their bullpen this month. New York counters with aging arm Roger Clemens (7-7 over/under) in Game 2 and right-hander Chien-Ming Wang (12-9 over/under) for Game 3.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 9 1/2 for Tuesday's series opener.

Raji