Friday MLB Best Bets

[Raji]

Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Kansas City Royals (+106, 9)

The Royals aren’t about to make a run at the AL Central title, but they just took two of three off the streaking Seattle Mariners to follow up an impressive June. Contrast with the Devil Rays, who’ve lost 11 in a row including a 15-4 shellacking at Fenway Park yesterday.

Tampa Bay gives the impression that they could start Bob Gibson in his prime and still find a way to lose. Fortunately for bettors, the Rays will start James Shields on Friday night to render that hypothetical a moot point.

On the whole, Shields has nice 2007 numbers. He’s suffered four losses in a row, however, and has himself to blame more than bad luck. Shields struck out 27 and walked only one batter in his 24 1/3 innings during his losing streak, but those numbers are tempered by the 19 runs on seven homers he allowed over that same span.

Compounding matters for Shields is that six Tampa relievers pitched at least a full inning yesterday in Boston, four of whom threw more than 30 pitches.

Pick: Royals +109

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-114, 9)

The Cards don’t hit left-handers well, something Giants starter Noah Lowry already knows. He allowed only four hits over seven innings back on April 19 to lead San Francisco to a 6-2 win as +103 home underdogs.

St. Louis hasn’t improved against southpaws since that loss. The Cardinals’ .680 OPS against left-handers is the second-lowest mark in the NL and they’ve managed only 13 home runs against lefties, tied with the Washington Nationals for the fewest in the majors. Any time your offense is mentioned in the same breath as the Nats, you know you’re struggling.

It won’t help that David Eckstein and Scott Spiezio, who have a combined .350 batting average against left-handed pitching this year, will miss Friday’s game.

San Francisco will face Mike Maroth, who will make his third start for the Cards. Maroth threw a gem in his first NL start but was hit hard in his second against the Cincinnati Reds, owners of MLB’s worst record.

Pick: Giants +106

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-101, 10)

Both the Orioles and the Rangers have drifted well out of the postseason picture in recent seasons despite owners willing to spend money. The problem with both clubs has often involved spending too much on bats and not enough on arms, making Friday’s pitching duel all the more unlikely.

Jeremy Guthrie has been a mini-sensation for the O’s, coming in from the bullpen in May only to find himself second in the AL in ERA as the break approaches. He’s made 11 starts since the end of April and has an ERA of 2.01 and a 0.76 WHIP in those starts.

Those numbers are far better than Texas starter Kameron Loe’s for 2007, but the towering Texas right-hander has been on fire lately. Loe’s 1.95 ERA over his last four starts has led to a four-game winning streak with the last two wins being road upsets over the Detroit Tigers (an 8-3 win as +196 underdogs on June 25) and the Boston Red Sox (a 2-1 win as +162 underdogs on July 1).

Texas gets the nod here for two reasons. Firstly, the Rangers went 6-3 over the O’s last season, 4-1 in Arlington. Secondly, Texas just took two of three from the AL West-leading Los Angeles Angels, meaning the Rangers haven’t lost any of their last six series. Hosting Baltimore should boost that streak to seven.

Pick: Rangers -101


Raji