Saturday Baseball Info

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Saturday’s MLB betting notes

Fri, Jun 15, 2007By Tim Roberts

Wrigley reversal?



The wind is often the biggest factor when playing the totals at Wrigley Field, but Saturday’s pitching matchup of Chris Young and Carlos Zambrano steals center stage in the afternoon game between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs.



The Padres have played over the total in six of Young’s seven starts away from home, while the Cubs have played over just as often in Zambrano’s seven home starts. There are reasons, however, to look at the under on Saturday afternoon.



Young has been unhittable and has an ERA of 1.34 over his last eight starts. And Zambrano’s flaunted his Cy Young potential in his two starts since a dust-up with catcher Michael Barrett.



Young and Zambrano have each faced their respective Saturday opponents three times since 2004. Five of those six combined games played under the total and the average total in those half-dozen games was 5.5 runs.



The Yankee Clippard



Tyler Clippard makes his sixth career start for the New York Yankees on Saturday against Tom Glavine, making his 650th start for the visiting New York Mets.



Clippard made his MLB debut against the Mets on May 20 and halted a Yankees losing streak behind six solid innings. His first start remains his best one to date, however, and the rookie was particularly shaky in last Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Yanks won 13-6 as -240 favorites, no thanks to Clippard and his 6 earned runs allowed over just 3 2/3 innings.



With Phil Hughes close to full health and Kei Igawa improving his command in Triple A, Clippard is running out of chances to hold on to the fifth starting slot in the New York rotation.



No repeat at Rogers



Levale Speigner gave loyal Washington Nationals backers a reason to celebrate last Saturday when he led the Nats to a road win over the Minnesota Twins as +375 underdogs. He’d been hit hard (and often) in his previous four starts.



“Me and the pitching coach worked on stuff to get me back, focused on just throwing strikes,” Speigner told the Thomasville (Ga.) Times-Enterprise, his hometown newspaper. “We changed a couple of grips that really helped a lot. The main thing I changed was my slider grip. It took some miles per hour off the ball and it kind of got hitters more out front.”



Speigner finally pitches again on Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays, but bettors won’t get similar value no matter how well Speigner pitches. His opponent last Saturday was Johan Santana. This Saturday it’s Shaun Marcum, who won’t command the oddsmakers’ respect like Santana did.



And you’d think “Beantown” would have lots of runs …



The San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox meet this weekend for the first time since 2004 and they’ll likely celebrate their getting-to-know-you phase by playing quick, low-scoring games.



The Giants’ offense is underperforming by its own anemic standards, topping four runs only once in their last nine games through Thursday, playing under the total six times over that span. The Red Sox, surprisingly, are even worse than the Giants at the plate, being held to two or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games before Friday’s series opener.



The fact that Saturday afternoon’s pitching matchup features two of the games best young arms won’t keep bettors away from the under either, as Matt Cain takes on Daisuke Matsuzaka.



Old man take a look at my life, I’m (not) a lot like you


Saturday’s pitching matchup features another pup / greybeard matchup as Andrew Miller and the Detroit Tigers face off against Jamie Moyer and the Philadelphia Phillies.



Miller and Moyer are both left-handed pitchers, but the comparison stops there. Miller is a 6-foot-6 giant with big-time heat, while Moyer barely reaches 6-foot and has made hay with his junkballing ways. Miller just turned 22 and is seen as a can’t-miss kid, while Moyer is going on 45 and didn’t hit his stride as a starter until he moved to the Seattle Mariners in his mid-30s.



Miller is 2-0 so far as a major-leaguer and will be given every opportunity to prove himself on the postseason-contending Tigers.



"Andrew Miller will either be in this rotation or in the minor leagues," manager Jim Leyland told the Detroit Free-Press. "That, you can take to the bank."



Going Bush-whacking in the Twin Cities



David Bush hasn’t faced the Minnesota Twins very often in his career, but the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander is winless in his three starts against the Twins. The Brew Crew has been favored in Bush’s last two starts against Minnesota, but dropped them both including a 5-2 loss at Miller Park on May 19.



Milwaukee has slowed down considerably after a lightning-fast start to the season and it shows in Bush’s recent starts. The Brewers have lost seven of his last nine starts, costing regular backers 6.10 units in the process.



Minnesota’s Saturday starter, Boof Bonser, showed that he can handle the Brewers the day before Bush’s loss. Bonser struck out 11 in seven innings while allowing only three hits and one walk in an 8-1 Twins win.



Youngsters with no self-control



The Florida Marlins have lots of talented young batsmen, but the impatience they’ve displayed so far in June should concern backers. Through Thursday’s game, the Marlins’ lineup had struck out 115 times in June while walking only 39 times, a ratio that’ll leave the Fish floundering if something doesn’t change.



Florida fell to the Cleveland Indians on Thursday despite sending ace Dontrelle Willis to the hill against Jason Stanford, who hadn’t started an MLB game since 2004. Willis was fine but the Marlins didn’t make Stanford work at all. He threw only 89 pitches over six innings and struck out seven Florida batters while walking none.



That bodes well for Jorge De La Rosa, who starts for the Kansas City Royals on Saturday night. De La Rosa started the season strong, but has allowed more walks then he’s picked up strikeouts over his last four starts. The free-swinging Floridians might be just what he needs.


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Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Indians (-104, 9 ½)



The visiting Braves bring the better starter to the hill today, but bettors should ask how long John Smoltz will go in his first start in 10 days. He skipped a start due to a sore right shoulder and has pitched only 9 1/3 innings over the last three weeks. Smoltz also hasn’t topped seven innings pitched since early April.



That virtually guarantees that the Braves bullpen will come into play this afternoon at Jacobs Field. Relief pitching had been a welcome Atlanta strength in the early parts of the season, but the Braves' recent sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins brought back memories of 2006



Cleveland, on the other hand, has gained confidence in its pen as the season has worn on. Indians relievers have a combined 1.54 ERA over the past week.



There’s also the fact that Cleveland is 21-9 at home, thanks to an average offensive output of 6.1 runs per game at Jacobs. No other MLB team can claim as potent a home-field punch.



Pick: Indians -104



Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-104, 10 ½)



Tigers starter Andrew Miller is a fan of his opponent today, but when it comes to the "Wow!" factor from the mound, Miller’s got it in spades while Philadelphia’s Jamie Moyer is more reliant on savvy over stuff.



"Like I used to say about Doc Gooden, it's pretty easy to be poised when you've got that kind of talent," an impressed Detroit manager Jim Leyland told local reporters about Miller.



Moyer has strong career numbers against the Tigers (10-7 W-L, 3.08 ERA), but considering how long as he’s been around, it’s dangerous from a betting perspective to read too much into career stats. Of more importance is Moyer’s recent form, which has been poor.



"I didn't throw the ball well at all. I stunk," he told the Phillies' team website after allowing six runs in less than four innings of work in a 17-5 loss to the Kansas City Royals in his last start. "I made a lot of mistakes in the middle of the plate, got behind hitters, walked too many people. I didn't help the cause at all."



If Moyer’s giving that up to the Royals then he might be in trouble against the Tigers, MLB’s hottest offense.



Pick: Tigers -104



Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates (+125, 8 ½)



It’s hard to believe that the White Sox won the World Series as recently as 2005. The relatively recent memories of ChiSox players dousing each other with champagne, however, obscures how lost at the plate Ozzie Guillen’s boys are.



How bad is Chicago’s offense? So bad that we’re fading them against the Pirates’ John Van Benschoten, making his first MLB pitching appearance since 2004. Van Benschoten missed the last two seasons with a serious shoulder injury and couldn’t be happier to be back in the bigs.



"I've never been happier for any player I've had than I am today," his agent Joe Bick told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "People can't fathom what it's like for an athlete to be out for that period of time, to wonder if you're going to recover, to think, 'Can I ever be what I'm supposed to be?'"



Maybe there’s some sentimentality creeping into the pick. Hold the phone: the White Sox have an MLB-worst .647 OPS away from home? And they’re hitting only .226 over their last 10 games? Scratch that, there’s no sentimentality with this pick, we're just seeing potential value due to an overrated team on the road.



Pick: Pirates +125


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