Friday Baseball

[Raji]

Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (+110, 9)

The Tigers almost always packs a potent offense, but they’re crossing the plate even more frequently than usual when Jeremy Bonderman takes the hill.

The average Detroit score in Bonderman’s 11 starts in 2007 is 7.1 to 4, which explains Bonderman’s 1.000 winning percentage. All of his wins have come over his last six starts when the Tigers’ average score has been 10 to 3.7. Detroit won as a favorite in each of those half-dozen starts and only once failed to deliver on the moneyline.

Philadelphia starter Jon Lieber pitched a complete-game shutout in his last start, but that was against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals’ lineup isn’t hitting .337 and slugging .529 for the month of June. Detroit’s lineup.

Carlos Guillen's status is still iffy due to a hamstring injury, but he said after yesterday’s loss that he’d like to suit up in Philadelphia tonight. With six other Tigers regulars hitting over .350 for the month, Guillen’s return would just be icing on the cake.

Pick: Tigers -118

Florida Marlins at Kansas City Royals (-112, 8 ½)

Gil Meche is the anti-Bonderman as far as offensive support goes. The Royals’ $55-million man has pitched well this season, but Kansas City has given him only 3.4 runs of support per start and only 1.6 over his last five. Not surprisingly, all five recent starts resulted in losses for Meche.

The Royals are consistent underdogs but they’ve still managed to be a money-losing team in 2007 due to their rotten 13-23 home record. They’re in tough tonight against the Marlins, whose 18-16 record away from Miami has netted consistent road backers 6.00 units of profit.

The Fish send Sergio Mitre to the mound at Kaufmann Stadium tonight. Mitre maintains the lowest profile of the young Florida starters, but that won’t be the case for long if he keeps up his current form. He has an insane 0.99 ERA in his seven post-April starts and while his durability can be questioned, the fact that Mitre hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those seven starts cannot.

Pick: Marlins +104

Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Colorado Rockies (-105, 9)

Tampa Bay’s trophy case has stayed fairly empty since the club commenced operations in the 1990s, but that wouldn’t be the case if MLB had an award for worst bullpen. Tampa Bay would annually be in contention for the hypothetical prize and might be favored to take the 2007 title.

Luckily for the D-Rays, the relievers get a break every fifth day when James Shields starts. The youngster with the unblemished record has pitched at least seven full innings in each of his last 10 starts. He’s not wearing out his arm in the process, either. Shields has peaked at 111 pitches over that span, a number that even the most cautious pitching coach would approve.

Oddsmakers are on to Shields, setting Tampa Bay as a favorite in five of his last six starts. The D-Rays are 4-2 in those games, 4-1 when favored.

The Rockies have been playing well in June, but are bound for a letdown after back-to-back wins over Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett of the high-profile Boston Red Sox.

Pick: Devil Rays -103

Raji