 Top over pitchers
Top 5: MLB 'over' pitchers
Thu, May 24, 2007By Alan McNamara
Knowing what to expect from starting pitchers is one of the keys to successful baseball betting and with a significant portion of the season now in the bag, this is a good time to take stock.
Betting totals can be a tough way to make money from baseball, but certain pitchers have shown a tendancy to send games over the total. Here are a few starting pitchers whose should make bettors think twice when they take the mound.
1. Carlos Zambrano Chicago Cubs
This imposing 6-foot-5 right-hander made his name with the Cubs during their 2003 season when he finished with a record of 13-11 and an ERA of 3.11.
In his 10 starts this season Zambrano has an over/under (O/U) record of 9-1, the most lopsided mark in the majors. Zambrano has an unimpressive ERA of 5.61, winning four and losing four of his starts with two no-decisions.
In his last outing - against the White Sox - he gave up seven runs and walked four batters over 6 2/3 innings.
Cubs catcher Henry Blanco has his theory on whats wrong with Zambrano, ""I think it is lack of concentration. You see a guy have a good game and you think he's going to take it from there. Obviously, he has not. He has a good game, then a bad game. There's no consistency."
Actually, there is some consistency, but Blanco probably hasn't looked at the O/U numbers.
2. Vicente Padilla Texas Rangers
Voted onto the 2002 All-Star Team as a member of the Phillies, Padilla was traded to Texas in 2005 after several disappointing seasons. The right-hander is infamous for his lack of control on the mound, but still managed a 15-10 win-loss record in 2006.
This season has seen major struggles for Padilla, who has only managed two wins in 10 starts, leading to an O/U record of 7-2. His ERA is 5.52, but Padilla did show some signs of improvement in this last outing, a 14-1 win over the Twins in which he gave up two runs and five hits in six innings.
Padillas next start is against the big hitting Boston Red Sox on Saturday; he is 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA in five career games, including four starts, against them.
3. Horacio Ramirez Seattle Mariners
In his first season with the Seattle Mariners, this left-hander has struggled for consistency. So far this year Ramirez has won all of his four starts at home, but has struggled on the road. Away from Safeco Field he has posted a 0-2 record with a 13.17 ERA.
The O/U has gone 6-1 over his seven starts and his ERA of 6.10 has helped the over. On the road, all of his starts have played over, but the lefty is not dwelling on bad games.
"I honestly try not to think about it. Whether I'm at Fenway or wherever it is, I try to take the same approach," says Ramirez. "It just happens that I'm pitching a little better at home than on the road. Now I just want to be consistent."
4. Matthew Albers Houston Astros
After an impressive 2006 with Minor League Corpus Christi where he went 10-2, the Houston Astros called up Albers to the majors as a fifth starter this season.
The 24-year-old right-hander has struggled in the big leagues and in his seven starts has a win-loss record of 1-4, with two no-decisions. The game played over the total in six of those seven starts and Albers an ERA 6.35.
His most recent start, a 9-1 loss to the Giants, saw him yield four earned runs in 6.1 innings - his sixth game in a row to go over the total. Albers could be sent to Double-A Round Rock in the next few weeks to make room for Jason Jennings, who's slated to return to the rotation shortly.
5. Clay Hensley San Diego Padres
Made a starter with the Padres in 2006, right-hander Clay Hensley managed a respectable 11-12 record with a 3.71 ERA, but has not been at his best this season.
Likely to return from the 15-day DL to start against the Brewers on Saturday, Hensley has pitched in four games already this year that have gone over the total.
Before going on the DL in early May, Hensley was 1-3 in his six starts this season with two no-decisions and has an ERA of 7.62. His biggest loss of the season came against the Chicago Cubs when he gave up 10 earned runs in just five innings.
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