Milwaukee's moneymaking baffles bettors

[Raji]

Strange Brew:


Baseball bettors taking a peak at this season’s early cash cows might do a double take when they see the Milwaukee Brewers on top of the list of MLB’s most profitable teams.

Milwaukee, which finished sixth worst in winnings last season (-13.61 units), has raked in 5.53 units for loyal Brew Crew backers so far this season. It is 13-8 to start the year, winning six of those games as an underdog.

A good chunk of the Brewers money has come on the road where they are currently 6-4, tallying 3.34 units. They were dogged in eight of 10 road contests and have gone 1-1 as rare road favorites.

At Miller Park, Milwaukee is 7-4 and was a favorite in nine of those home games, going 6-3 as a home favorite while splitting the two games it was set as a home underdog.

“[The Brewers] are seen as an up-and-coming team but they have had these quick starts in the past and fell apart,” says professional handicapper David Jones. “Last year they had a tough time on the road, now they’re playing winning baseball on the road.”

Many are crediting Milwaukee’s success to the weakness of the National League Central in which it is the only team with a record above .500. Teams like the Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds all have losing records in their home ballparks.

The only team the Brewers have faced with a winning record is the Los Angeles Dodgers, which visited Miller Park to start the season. Milwaukee won two out of three games in front of a raucous home crowd that has continued to grow in attendance since the Brewers started their hot play. Miller Park is ninth in total attendance so far this year, bringing in 364,010 for an average of 32,462 fans per game, up from last season’s average of 28,835.

“The fans provide a live crowd at Miller Park and now they get to come out and support a winner and the team is starting to develop confidence on their home field,” says Jones.

The Brewers newfound confidence could also be streaming from their revamped approach to hitting. New hitting coach Jim Skaalen has Milwaukee focusing more on on-base-percentage (fifth in majors at .341) and cutting back on strikeouts. Through 21 games the Brewers have struck out 130 times compared to last season’s total of 160 during the same period.

“I think the real key for the Brewers has been their power on offense,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “They are third in slugging percentage. A lot of this is attributable to them being second in homers in MLB. They really haven't been getting a lot of clutch hitting so their success truly is a little mind-boggling.”

Milwaukee has improved in almost every hitting category this season. As a team it is batting .272 (fifth in the majors) and is now tied for most home runs in the NL with 26. The Brewers are in the top 5 in eight key statistical hitting categories in the National League. The one area of concern is batting with runners in scoring position (.233).

On the other side of the ball, Milwaukee’s pitching has been average. It has a team ERA of 4.03 behind the solid arms of Jeff Suppan (3-2, 2.97 ERA), Chris Capuano (3-0, 3.68 ERA), Dave Bush (2-1, 5.04 ERA) and staff ace Ben Sheets (1-2, 4.50 ERA). Sheets is now battling injury after suffering a strained groin against the Cubs on Wednesday.

“Milwaukee's starters have performed well but the rest have all had issues. I really don't expect the Brewers' success to continue at this rate,” says Rickenbach. “They will do OK because the NL Central is weak but I see some bumps in the road coming up, especially if Sheets can't get healthy quick.”

The Brewers travel to Houston to play the Astros on Friday night. They are 2-1 against Houston this season. Oddsmakers have the Brewers as +144 underdogs with the total set at 8.

Raji