Beware of bad bullpens

[Raji]

April 2, 2007

With the boys of summer returning to the diamond this week, we will focus our attention on one of the most important and overlooked parts of Major League Baseball: relief pitching.
Baseball odds are based around listed starting pitchers. Yet, long gone are the days when pitchers started games and regularly finished them. These days, even if a pitcher is having success, he may get pulled after just five or six innings because of high pitch counts or favorable lefty-righty matchups.

With the average starter pitcher lasting just six innings, that leaves three innings, or one third of the game, in the hands of the bullpen. Thus, it's critical to factor teams' bullpens into the handicapping of games.

The Atlanta Braves are a perfect example of the importance of bullpens. Atlanta's bullpen blew 29 of 67 save opportunities last season. That's 29 games that the Braves were winning late but were unable to close.

That number does not include all of the games the bullpen blew before the ninth inning or games that were tied late but were lost by the 'pen.

The Braves finished with a 79-83 record last season. If they had successfully saved just 10 more of those 69 save opportunities, they would have made the playoffs.

The Braves addressed this problem by signing Rafael Soriano and Tanyon Sturtze and trading Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for closer Mike Gonzalez.

The Cleveland Indians are another example of a team hurt by a bad bullpen. After winning 93 games in 2005, some experts picked them to win the World Series in 2006. But their bullpen had the fewest saves in the majors and was a big reason why the Indians finished fourth in the AL Central, 18 games out of first.

The Indians understood the importance of reviving their bullpen and signed Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Fultz and Rafael Betancourt in the offseason.

Below is a quick glance at some bullpens that appear undervalued and overvalued heading into the new campaign.

Undervalued

Boston Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon returned to the closer role after speculation that he may join the rotation this season. Papelbon had 35 saves and a 0.92 ERA last season while striking out 75 and walking only 13 batters.

There is also plenty of experience in the middle relief role where veterans Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro and Japanese left-hander Hideki Okajima will try to get Papelbon the ball with the lead.

Anaheim Angels: No pitcher in the majors has more saves the last two seasons than Angel closer Frankie Rodriguez, who has recorded 92 saves during that span. Rodriguez stuck out 98 batters in 73 innings while only walking 28 last season, and he is still only 25 years old.

Middle relief features a solid lefty-righty mix with veterans Darren Oliver and Scott Shields.

San Diego Padres: Closer Trevor Hoffman has recorded 89 saves the last two seasons, second only to Rodriguez. His 46 saves last season marked the third straight year and the eighth time in his Hall of Fame career he has recorded more than 40 saves.

Highly-sought after RHP Scott Linebrink and young righty Cla Meredith add reliability to the middle of the bullpen.

Linebrink was the talk of several proposed trades including one that had the Phillies sending centerfielder Aaron Rowand to the Padres in exchange for Linebrink. As tempting as that offer must have been, the Padres decided to keep their prize middle reliever.

Meredith went 5-1 with a 1.07 ERA out of the 'pen last season for the Padres.

Overvalued

Texas Rangers: Akinori Otsuka had a solid first season as a closer, yet he is 35 years old. It will be interesting to see if he can duplicate last season's success.

Eric Gagne saved 152 games from 2002-2004 but has only pitched 15.1 innings the last two seasons because of elbow, back and knee problems. Even if he is healthy enough to pitch, he remains a huge question mark.

The rest of the bullpen is littered with former failed starters like Bruce Chen, Kameron Loe and Joaquin Benoit. The transition from starter to reliever is not always an easy one and the Rangers have three making the transition at the same time.

St. Louis Cardinals: Closer Jason Isringhausen shut his season down last September and had surgery on his injured hip. With last season's playoff closer Adam Wainwright moving to the bullpen, the Cardinals are hoping that Isringhausen can regain his form.

The setup men are average at best. Russ Springer and Ryan Franklin have bounced around the league with little success. With a depleted starting rotation, the Cardinals will have too many innings pitched by average arms.

Chicago Cubs: While the Cubs did a lot to improve their team with the signings of Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis and manager Lou Piniella, somewhere in the spending spree they forgot to get any help for the bullpen.

Ryan Dempster will take first stab at the closing duties this spring. Dempster saved 24 games last season, but he also blew nine opportunities and had an awful 4.80 ERA. Dempster gave up 77 hits and 36 walks in just 75 innings last season.

It doesn't get much better behind Dempster with the likes of Bob Howry, Scott Eyre, Neil Cotts and Angel Guzman. None of these pitchers had ERAs lower than 3.50 last season. In fact, only Howry had an ERA under 4.50.

The Cubs have gained significant attention from bettors and media alike. Yet the bullpen may very well be their undoing when all is said and done.

More games than people realize are decided by bullpens so don't forget them while doing your handicapping. In particular, watch for bullpens that may be overworked. This tends to happen a lot when teams only have one lefty in the 'pen. He may get used too much and become tired

Raji