Over 8.5 Cubs / Cardinals
This pick may seem strange with the pitchers that are going today, but hear me out on this one.
Ill start with Carpenter because he is the ace and would be the main reason why this bet would be squashed. In the last three he has an era of 3.00 and the last time he pitched against the Cubs he gave up three runs so its not too much suggesting he could give up three runs in this game but I think it will be more for two reasons. This game is his second game against the Cubs in as many starts. I have found starting pitchers who have done well against a team in the first outing will not adjust for game two. The hitters who did poorly the first time will adjust and usually get a better output and most likely the win. The second reason is the umpire but I will get back to that after I tackle the Cubs starting pitcher.
Hill has an ERA over 6 on the season and he has been awful on the road where is ERA is over ten. In his last outing against the Cards he gave up four.
Finally the umpire is C.B Bucknor and he is an over umpire with the over coming in 15-12 against the over and he averages over 10 runs a game. The over is 5-3 in his last 8 games overall and 7-2-1 in his last ten with the Cubs. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 with the Cardinals and in the two games he umpired with Carpenter throwing they both went over and the games averaged 14 runs a game.
Finally here are some trends:
Over is 3-0-0 in Cubs last 3 Saturday games.
Over is 4-0-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-0-0 in Cubs last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-0 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 9-2-0 in Cubs last 11 games following a loss.
Over is 4-1-0 in Cubs last 5 day games following a night game on the previous day.
Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 8-2-1 in Cubs last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 13-4-2 in Cubs last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 24-8-0 in Cubs last 32 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 19-7-1 in Cubs last 27 during game 2 of a series.
Over is 19-7-0 in Cubs last 26 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 5-2-1 in Cubs last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-0 in Cubs last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 16-7-2 in Cubs last 25 overall.
Over is 16-7-2 in Cubs last 25 on Grass.
Over is 9-4-1 in Cubs last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 11-5-1 in Cubs last 17 road games.
Over is 4-1-0 in Bucknor's last 5 Saturday games behind home plate.
Over is 4-1-0 in Bucknor's last 5 day games behind home plate vs. Chicago
And my trend of the day:
Over is 25-6-1 in Bucknor's last 32 day games behind home plate.
Take the over in the early game!
JT
Sneaks
Saturday Early Game 
Linear Mode
