In depth Florida/Pitt

[jtsneaks]

I will try my best to explain the system in a thread later on that I discussed, first here is a writeup for tonight's game..
I wanted to break this game down and take a long look at it.


Pitching:

the secret is out on Florida's Josh Johnson who is having a stellar year for the marlins, and he is the #1 reason that the Fish are established as a big favorite going into this game tonight. He is 8-5 on the season and a nice 5-2 at home this year.

The Pirates counter with Ian Snell and if you have ever taken a look inside the numbers you would see that Snell has numbers that are comparable to Josh Johnsons. He is 8-6 on the season and has great numbers on the road and that is saying alot for a pirates team that can't win on the road. He is 4-1 on the road and has the lowest ERA in any position (day games, home games, etc) when he throws on the road. He has yet to yeild more than four runs in his last nine starts and look at his last four starts on the road.

If you throw out his start in an AL park (and even then he only gave up 4 earned) He gave up one run @ philly which is a hitters ballpark, 7 inningsof shutout ball at SF, and gave up just 2 at Colorado another hitter friendly park.

He did only pitch 1.1 innings in his last game against Florida giving up 7 earned, but if he can keep going on his latest run, this could be a close game as Florida has just giving Johnson 2.0 runs per support in his last three starts.

Hitting and last ten:

Both teams are just 5-5 in the last ten but Pittsburgh is hitting .298 against righties and Florida just .239.


News

The Pirates realize they are not going anywhere and therefore guys who are not signed next year are on the block and are playing for teams out there who may be looking.

"When you're not playing well as a team and have guys who aren't signed for next year, you become sellers," Randa said. "As a veteran guy, you assume that anything can happen at any time. The approach is, 'Be ready to play each day until you get called in the office.' "

Trading outfielder/first baseman Craig Wilson almost certainly is among the items on Littlefield's to-do list.

"I'm ready to play for whoever wants me to play for them," Wilson said. "I don't think [the next week or so] will be any more distracting than spring training. I'll hear a lot of teams I'm going to, but until something is actually done once the game starts, you go out and play hard and hope at the end of it you've got more runs than the other team."

The intangible: The Pirates playing their just-concluded homestand in sweltering heat and humidity would seem to have them prepared for the sweltering heat and humidity in south Florida.


I am going to take a shot at the Bucs +135

JT

[minet123]

In reading it it looks good but I still have to go with the Fish
The Bucos are on cruise control and are still dreadfull on the road

[jtsneaks]

Cruise control? Not so sure they have won 4 out of six...


here is another one...

With the information whirlwind surrounding the Blue Jays tonight it’s hard to think that they will be able to concentrate on tonight’s game.

The Jays cut Hillenbrand and it’s believed that there is a rift between management and the players that will break into something ugly before it is over. Tonight they have the ace going against Mike Mussina and the suddenly playing better New York Yankees.

Tonight it’s time for a change when these teams meet. Looking at pitching you will see some outrageous numbers.

In the last seven starts against the Yankees when Halladay starts the Jays have won six out of seven and he has only allowed more than two earned just once and has posted back to back shutout performances in the innings he pitched. Overall the Jays have won 8 of his last ten starts and the most he has given up his four earned in any of those games. He is also a nice 7-1 at home.

For Mussina it’s just as pretty as the Yankees have won four out of his last six starts against the Jays and he has given up just one earned against them in back to back starts. The Yankees have won his last five starts in a row and he has just given up 7 runs in the last four. He is an outstanding 5-1 on the road.

So it looks like a pitching duel and a toss up with the winner right?
I am not so sure. The Jays management and coaching staff needs to win this game, they need to prove to the fans and to themselves that getting rid of Hillenbrand was the right move and the means scoring runs and winning, and now.

I am taking the Over 9.5 +110 and the Blue Jays -127 tonight

Of course I have some trends to back it up:

Mussina: NYY 21-9 Over Away vs. righties
Halladay: 20-2 TSR in night games

• Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Blue Jays are 3-0 in their last 3 vs. American League East.
• Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Blue Jays are 3-0 in their last 3 games as a favorite.
• Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
• Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Blue Jays are 18-6 in their last 24 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Blue Jays are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a home favorite.
• Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games.
• Blue Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Blue Jays are 35-17 in their last 52 games following a loss.
• Blue Jays are 3-0 in Halladay's last 3 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
• Blue Jays are 5-0 in Halladay's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Blue Jays are 4-0 in Halladay's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Blue Jays are 21-5 in Halladay's last 26 starts on Field Turf.
• Blue Jays are 21-5 in Halladay's last 26 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Blue Jays are 16-5 in Halladay's last 21 Thursday starts.
• Blue Jays are 40-13 in Halladay's last 53 home starts.
• Blue Jays are 61-20 in Halladay's last 81 starts as a favorite.
• Blue Jays are 22-8 in Halladay's last 30 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Blue Jays are 19-7 in Halladay's last 26 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Blue Jays are 38-14 in Halladay's last 52 starts as a home favorite.
• Blue Jays are 37-14 in Halladay's last 51 starts.
• Blue Jays are 42-17 in Halladay's last 59 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Blue Jays are 39-16 in Halladay's last 55 night starts.
• Blue Jays are 38-16 in Halladay's last 54 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Blue Jays are 7-3 in Halladay's last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
• Blue Jays are 36-17 in Halladay's last 53 starts vs. American League East.
• Blue Jays are 35-17 in Halladay's last 52 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 10-3-0 in Yankees last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 12-4-0 in Yankees last 16 vs. American League East.
• Over is 22-8-1 in Yankees last 31 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Over is 19-7-0 in Yankees last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 36-17-0 in Yankees last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Over is 3-0-0 in Mussina's last 3 Thursday starts
• Over is 7-2-0 in Mussina's last 9 starts vs. American League East.
• Over is 6-2-0 in Mussina's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2-0 in Mussina's last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-2-0 in Mussina's last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 5-2-0 in Mussina's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
• Over is 7-3-0 in Mussina's last 10 night starts
• Over is 3-0-0 in Halladay's last 3 starts as a home favorite.
• Over is 3-0-0 in Halladay's last 3 Thursday starts.
• Over is 3-0-0 in Halladay's last 3 home starts.
• Over is 3-0-0 in Halladay's last 3 starts on Field Turf.
• Over is 3-0-0 in Halladay's last 3 home starts vs. a team with a winning record

[jtsneaks]

Umpire tonight: Marquez, Alfonso
Home team 13-7

O/U 11/9





Lineups


Looks like the gang is all here , except for Shea of course...

NY Yankees
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
J. Damon cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .292
D. Jeter ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .341
J. Giambi dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .256
A. Rodriguez 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .284
J. Posada c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .280
B. Williams rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .281
A. Phillips 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .258
M. Cabrera lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .271
M. Cairo 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Toronto
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
R. Johnson rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .360
F. Catalanotto lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .323
V. Wells cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .311
T. Glaus 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .242
L. Overbay 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .305
B. Molina c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .286
G. Zaun dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .301
A. Hill 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .303
J. McDonald ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .220
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[James Sharpe]

I'm glad to see someone finally taking a shot on the underdogs for once. You seem as though you do a decent amount of research on your picks how do you do overall on the seasons. Most people always seem to just bet favorites and claim they come out even or a little ahead but I highly doubt it. It's an extreme rarity when someone bets 90-95% favorites and they come out winning money for season. I curious to read some more of your picks I like to palyers with well thought out decisons on their plays.

Play Smart and Stay Sharpe

[jtsneaks]

Iassogna, Dan behind the plate in florida/ Pitt

home teams are 9-11
O/U 10/8

Home favorites of -160 or less are 10-14 last 2 years and 3-7 this year

Lineups:

Pittsburgh
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
N. McLouth rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .228
J. Wilson ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .270
F. Sanchez 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .363
J. Bay lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .291
S. Casey 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .305
J. Bautista cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .272
J. Castillo 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .272
R. Paulino c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .306
I. Snell p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .038
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Florida
AB R H RBI BB K LOB Season Avg
A. Amezaga cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .270
H. Ramirez ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .271
M. Jacobs 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .282
M. Cabrera 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .332
D. Uggla 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .295
J. Hermida rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .297
J. Willingham lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .264
M. Olivo c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .284
J. Johnson p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .040
Totals

[jtsneaks]

James Sharpe,

Just noticed your response Iam a pure dog player and have been doing well on the season (knock on wood) 445-469 on this season +3479 (based on 100 per unit) I like MLB because it is really the only sports where you don't even have to come close to 50% to make money

Hope this answers your questions


JT Sneaks

[jtsneaks]

One more in depth for the night and it will be the late one in San Diego and San Francisco.


It was announced today that Barry Bonds will not be indicted on charges of the grand jury, while this is great news for Bonds it is not the end as there are still many questions left unanswered but still a win for the bonds camp.

Tonight Lowry will face Chan Ho Park in what should be a great late game. I will make it real quick and let you know I am passing on the total until I have umpire information.
So on to the game. The Padres bullpen is not looking great and while the Giants also look pretty bad of late it could be worse for the Padres who see the long time closer Hoffman having trouble since his fallout in the all-star game.

Chan Ho Park has exceeded expectations this year and he is 4-1 on the road and the Padres are playing great as a road dog. Lowry has also had a decent year, but to look at both of these pitchers in the last three you would not think they had a good go of things this year.

Park has an ERA of 5.31 in his last three but has still managed to get a 2-1 record for the Padres. Lowry has an ERA over 7, but with great run support he has done well for the Giants.

This pick to me will come down to the bullpens and some other factors that have not been approached. I am not sold on Chan Ho Park, he has had a decent year but has allowed 21 earned in his last four starts and 15 earned in his last three starts against the Giants. Bonds has hit him very well in his career and should be happy and free swinging after the verdict this afternoon.

Lowry has done well at home even if you count the 6 earned he gave up against the Phillies. He then shutdown and allowed less than 3 earned in every home start against decent hitting teams like the Rangers, Angels, and cardinals. He has not always been on the winning side against the Padres but has pitched well to include a 6 inning shutout performance the last time they faced each other.

The Giants play their best in game one of a series where they are 20-12 and with the last minute win and the unstableness in the pen by the Padres I look for a Giants win here.

SF -118

[brs14ku]

Nice hit on Pitt, I am jumping on SF with ya. Good info as usual JT! Florida gave em a scare though.

[premiumplaya]

wow. simply great. nice picks sir! ill have to jump on the bandwagon next time! gl in the future.