MLB Articles, Trends, and Picks

[jtsneaks]

Grabbed all of this stuff online but it's good for a busy friday.

MLB: Good, Bad, Ugly


So what baseball teams should a handicapper look to when analyzing odds: The good, the bad or the ugly ones? Well, you should examine all teams and lines in various situations, of course. However, let me say a few words about how bad and very ugly teams can look wonderful in the eyes of the professional handicapper.

Bad teams can fly under the radar far more easily than good ones. Remember that lines are set in part with public perception in mind. High profile baseball teams are the big name ones, like the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Dodgers. These are teams that, for the most part, have money to spend on big-name players and managers, and are on television often. Public bettors love to bet on TV games, so you often you can see public teams getting little value. I recall a game earlier this season where Yankee pitcher Jaret Wright and his below-average stuff (and high ERA) were a minus-370 favorite in a game! Granted. it was against the Royals, and the Yankees did win the game, but it was only 6-5 with Wright pitching poorly. I would not recommend laying 370 to win 100 with Jaret Wright on the mound (after all, the Royals have already won a game at Yankee Stadium this season).

Baseball is a long season. Pitchers and hitters go into slumps and hot streaks, and players and coaches can get into spats over 162 games. There are several factors to keep in mind when analyzing bad teams that can help you as a bettor, and talented teams on paper that aren’t living up to their capabilities.

1. Lethargy: Teams out of the postseason hunt can simply not care anymore. Bad teams can develop a sense of complacency and lethargy. The Royals and Pirates have had several bad seasons in a row now, but even high profile teams can stumble through this. The Cubs have had a dismal first half. Keep a close eye on what the players are saying and whether they are inspired to play or just going through the motions.

2. Pitching: While all teams go through slumps and slides, what carries legitimate playoff teams through the long summer is pitching depth. Even good teams can go on 8-game skids, for example, but if a team has quality pitching, both starters and middle relief, the likelihood of them turning around is far greater than one relying on offense to overcome weak pitching.

3. Disenchantment: Athletes are human and can get frustrated and not show up to play hard if they’re not happy. Check out the stats on the Florida Marlins from last year. On paper, the team had enormous talent and great pitching depth. But they were never a together group and were very underachieving.

4. Trade Deadline: Sometimes teams can get that one missing piece, either from the farm system in mid-season or the trade deadline at the end of this month. Boston found it in 2004, trading unhappy SS Nomar Garciaparra for Orlando Cabrera. This upgraded the defense and loosened up the clubhouse. They were an underachieving club before that move, then took off like a skyrocket on the way to winning the World Series.

For handicapping purposes, it can be just as profitable to look to go against bad teams with numerous problems, rather than to search for good teams to wager on. Be wary of public teams, as they can be overpriced. Because ugly teams can look oh so beautiful when you’re cashing tickets at the betting window!


JT Sneaks

[jtsneaks]

MLB hot lines: Friday’s best bets

By Covers.com staff
Thu, Jul 6, 2006


Baltimore at Cleveland – Orioles +156

C.C. Sabathia has struggled in his last two home starts. He’s pitched just 7 1/3 total innings in his last two games at Jacobs field.

Sabathia also allowed nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in his last home start against the Cubs and seven runs in five innings the start before against Anaheim.

Interestingly, both teams rank in the bottom five in the majors in batting against left-handed pitchers, and so do the Orioles. Baltimore has the worst batting average in the majors against lefties, hitting just .234.

Sabathia pitches more like a right-handed pitcher than a left-handed one. He’s shut down the Cardinals and the Reds in his last two starts – teams that rank third and 12th in the majors against left-handed pitching.

Minnesota at Texas – Twins +111

It’s officially time to start backing Carlos Silva. Sure, his ERA is still a monstrous 6.52 and sure, he’s still down 3.52 units on the season, but the big right-hander is obviously over is early season woes. He’s recorded three quality starts in six appearances since returning to the starting rotation (he had been demoted the bullpen) and the Twins have won three of his last four starts.

Minnesota is also a decent team to back under any circumstance right now. They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games and have vaulted up the league’s money rankings. Their 9.96 units in profit trails only division rivals Detroit and Chicago, and AL East leader Boston for the top money mark in the majors.

Toronto at Kansas City – Royals +177

Watch out for the Royals. Baseball’s laughingstock isn’t just an NL beater anymore. Kansas City took two of three games in its most recent series with the Twins and have now won 13 of its last 19 games after beating the Jays last night 6-2.

The Royals will also get to battle Jays starter A.J. Burnett, who’s back to earth after two brilliant starts in his return from the 60-day DL. Burnett allowed seven runs, five earned, in just 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Philadelphia and will now face a turnaround Royals offense that’s averaged over six runs in its last 10 games.

The Jays will also be without managers John Gibbons who is expected to miss the game to be with his father, who is seriously ill. Bench coach Ernie Witt will be the acting manager.

San Francisco at Dodgers – Giants –104

Not sold on backing Dodgers’ starter Chad Billingsley just yet. His is stuff electric, but like most young pitchers, his pitch counts are being limited and he’s experiencing his fair share of struggles.

Billingsley is 0-2 in four starts with a 4.91 ERA and has never pitched past the sixth over that span.

That means we’re sure to see some work from the Dodgers` underachieving bullpen. L.A. relievers are 11-17 this season, have a 4.45 ERA, and are allowing opponents to hit .262.

JT Sneaks

[jtsneaks]

Jon Leiber is back, but do you take them.

Dear Jon: Lieber`s return brings caution

By Josh Hansen
Thu, Jul 6, 2006


Never heard of Cory Ehlers?

Neither had Jon Lieber until the Class-A product took Philadelphia’s veteran deep in Lieber’s third and final rehab start for the Phillies Sunday night.

"It was the same as the last game," said Lieber, who gave up hits to five of the first six batters he faced.

"Struggled with location in the first inning. I`m disappointed in that, but overall I felt good. Felt like I got better as the game went on. Even in the last inning I threw there, I still felt strong. It felt good to work that deep again."


The 6 1/3 innings pitched was Lieber’s longest outing since May 24 – one game before a left groin strain landed the 36-year-old on Philadelphia’s 15-day disable list.

Three weeks, and a 6.29 ERA in three minor league starts later, Lieber feels he’s ready to pitch Friday versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team whose struggles rival that of the Phillies.

Not only is Pittsburgh a league-worst 9-33 on the road, but Lieber is also 7-1 with a 2.78 ERA lifetime versus the Bucs.

No wonder he wants to come back. He owns Pittsburgh like the Bus. Yellow lights included.

“You better have a good reason to play him,” says Covers Expert Tom Stryker.

“Automatically, you don’t want to play guys coming off the DL. That first game, you’re unsure of their ability or how long they’ll go. If you do, you had better make sure the bullpen is at full strength because he may only give you five innings, at best.”

Before his injury, Lieber rarely relied on the reserves, unlike the rest of Philadelphia’s question mark starting rotation. In 11 starts, Lieber made it past the sixth inning nine times with a hiccup in Boston and his injury-shortened start in Washington on May 29 being the lone exceptions.

But at his age, with the severity of his injury, his rehab struggles, and Philadelphia’s fourth-ranked 3.71 bullpen ERA, it may be difficult for Lieber to pick up where he left off. No matter how good he feels.

"I didn`t really care about the runs (during his rehab starts). I was more concerned with how my leg was going to respond each inning,” said Lieber.

"I`ve had three starts and really no problems, so there`s really no need to wait any longer. I`m ready to pitch."


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[jtsneaks]

Sox/Sox Preview

The last two World Series champions will meet in a rematch from last year’s opening round of the American League Playoffs. Chicago swept the then defending champion Boston Red Sox 3-0, with especially good use of the number five. In the first game, the White Sox hung a 5-run first inning on the Red Sox on the way to a 14-2 blowout at U.S. Cellular Field. In the 2nd game trailing 4-0, Chicago scored 5 runs in the 5th inning and made that score hold up. When both teams returned to Bean Town, the White Sox won 5-3 to conclude the series, as you might have guessed by now as +155 underdogs.

Boston comes into this heavily anticipated rematch from a possible look ahead situation, having lost a 4-game series at Tampa Bay. The current World Series champions just completed taking 3 of 4 against Baltimore. This series should bring back memories for fans of the old Pittsburgh Pirates teams of the late 1970’s who were affectionately known as the “Lumber Company”. The White Sox are first in runs scored and home runs in the American League and 2nd in batting average, slugging percentage and total bases. The Red Sox are not far behind in most categories, being 4th in runs scored, 5th in BA and SL PTC. Boston hitters are notoriously patient and lead the AL in on-base percentage.

As Boston seeks a morsel of redemption, they will have to face one of the best home pitchers since the beginning of the new millennium. Mark Buehrle has won more games at home then any other pitcher this decade and is again 5-1 this season with a 2.81 ERA. The left-hander is off the worst start of his career, when he gave up 11 runs against the Cubs last Sunday. The easiest way to describe Buehrle’s effectiveness as a home pitcher is his 22-5 (+14.8 Units) record against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (White Sox Record) He’ll be matched against rookie John Lester who has impressed everyone with his poise and ability in not losing in five starts. If the White Sox can take an early lead, take note they are 18-3 +14.1 units in games decided by 2 or 3 runs.

The next two afternoon games should offer great pitching match-ups between these exceptional squads. Saturday has Josh Beckett for Boston, against Freddy Garcia for White Sox. Beckett had won three straight until Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir hung zeroes on the board against Boston, ending the streak. Beckett and friends are 5-5 when he pitches on the road; however 4-0 when pitching in daylight. Garcia continues to win for the White Sox with a 12-5 record in his starts. The biggest problem for Garcia which sharp cappers have noticed, is his diminishing number of strikeouts per innings pitched for a 3rd straight year. Expect Chicago to be a slight favorite.

The last game before the All-Star break for both teams has undefeated Jose Contreras against Curt Schilling. Contreras is 9-0 this season and has won 17 consecutive decisions dating back to 2005. He will face the grim task of trying to extend this streak one more game against a tough hitting Red Sox line-up. Schilling gave up three home runs in a loss to the D-Rays to drop his record to 10-3. The 39-year old right-hander is 2-0 at ‘The Cell’ with a 0.90 ERA in three career appearances. Sportsbooks like SportingBetUSA.com will have a tough choice to make a solid line on this game.

The White Sox come in with a distinct home field advantage at 32-12, while the BoSox are a pedestrian 25-22 as the visitor. Oddmakers have had the beat on Totals on these heavy hitting teams with a combined record of 47-39, favoring the Over.

If you plan on going to the games on the South Side this weekend or are interested in laying a few dollars on a game or the series, expect three hours to be the norm for each game to secure the desired results with this many bats, even with all the great pitching. Chicago is a -135 favorite to take the series at books offering such numbers.


JT Sneaks

[jtsneaks]

Okay now that I rounded up all that stuff, what do I make of it and who am I taking...

not too many totals since its hard to find an umpire early in the first game of a series.

Astros -117

The Astros need to make a sttement in this series and they are going to be looking for a clean sweep. I can see them pulling it off and this game becomes important with the rest of the rotation shaped up the way it is. St. Louis has won just once in the last ten road games and will lose again tonight.

JT Sneaks

[jillmark]

very nice. good reads.