Newbie question

[mshewma0]

Hello everyone. This is my first post so be nice to me if I break the rules or say something ignorant.

Ok so I have a theory that I would like some feedback on.

I've had my hand in a couple NFL games and really became interested in college basketball in the past year, but I recently began betting on MLB and do pretty well in MLB with this strategy. I'll try to explain it as best as possible.

Ok there are alot of bad teams such as the Pirates, Royals, and Twins that go on alot of losing streaks. Additionally they tend to not be favored when on the road. They are often given money lines of +150 to +250 where lots of money is to be won if you can guess when the underdog will win. Well when these teams go on 10 game to 12 game road trips, I think it's reasonable to believe they will win at least one game and maybe even 2 or three. This is where I think money can be made. Here's how the bets would be layed out. I'll use small amounts of money to emphasize my point

On the first game of the road trip I put down $2. And shucks they lose. Then I put $8 down. Shucks they lose again. I'm down $10 now. I then put down $20 on the third game and they lose again. I'm down $30 now. I then put $50 in the fourth game and they lose again. I'm down $80 now. On the fifth game I put down $130 and holy crap they win. Because it's a road trip I may make an overall profit for the five games of $50-$300 depending on the line for the fifth game.

Wow that was wordy. I promise I won't post anything this long in the future, but I think you get my point. I sort of increment my bets as the losing streak continues until I win a game. I think once I win a game I would cease betting on the team for that road trip because getting one win from the Pirates, Twins, or Royals is a little greedy.

I don't necessarily like this method of betting because it almost takes the fun out of betting, but I think it could be a profitable method. It could have huge short term loses, but eventually could result in a long term profit.

So that's my opinion so there's no telling if it's reasonable. It seems so simple that I feel like I'm overlooking a huge detail so I'd appreciate anything you think. Shoot me straight. Thanks.

[BangTheBook]

Welcome aboard.

Your theory looks ok, I think you would need a huge bankroll to try it out. So when a bad road team went on the road you could back them. I am sure sometimes they could go on a 5 game road trip and lose all 5 so you would have to wait till next time. Also maybe they win 2 in a row on the road which would hurt unless you kept betting them every game.

I checked back a few years and the worst a team did was win 25% of its road games so about 1 in 4 most years looks to be 1 in 3.

I think this would be worth trying but I would add a few more parameters with it, maybe taking them after there first road loss and adding in whatever other matchup factors you can. You could also do some digging which wouldnt be too fun but run the numbers for 2 prior years.

Sounds interesting so let me know
Ryan

[brs14ku]

Welcome aboard.

Interesting strategy. I have seen it tried many times and often it comes out a huge failure. The problem lies in the fact that in order for the juice to be high enough for some decent cash, they need to be facing a stud pitcher, or the yankees. The royals and Pirates, as bad as they are, haven't seen that many lines over +200 this year. When they are that big of a dog, last night the Pirates were at +260 or something like that and almost won, they almost always lose, neglecting your chance at winning the $ you need to make your money back.

However, with the gradual betting numbers you applied in your example it could end up profitable if things go how you would like, but what happens when they go on a 10 game losing streak...you're broke. Also, I think you would be wiser to take all that cash you just mentioned and split it into units each day and bet a certain amount for each # of units without large variation. Variation in betting size, like $2-$130, can kill your bankroll in a hurry.

Anyway, I hope whatever you choose ends up well, and glad to have you around so lets make some $$$ together.

[mshewma0]

thanks for your feedback. I definitely think you are right about not betting until maybe later on during a losing streak. Maybe like 3 or 4 games in start betting until they win

Also you guys are absolutely right about having a deep wallet for this. I think I'm going to have to make my team and road trip choices wisely. Also I think making my increments in units is a wiser choice.

While I haven't tried this strategy yet, I have watched some trends over the first month of baseball and it seems like I would have raked up. Other than that 11 game losing streak by the Royals I'd be sitting pretty sweet. I'll let you all know how its going once I get the balls to start it.

Thanks again and I welcome any other comments or lambasting.

[BangTheBook]

GL with it. It would be cool if you tracked it here in the forum so we can all watch and maybe make some $$

[brs14ku]

Originally Posted by BangTheBook

GL with it. It would be cool if you tracked it here in the forum so we can all watch and maybe make some $$

Agreed. We are always interested in different systems and strategys and it would be great for you to share it with all of us. GL with whatever you choose.