The Value Of A Starting Pitcher

[Kutz]

Anyone reading this probably has some interest in handicapping baseball. So I pose the question, what is the value of a starting pitcher?

We see the lines listed with teams and projected starting pitchers names next to them. Do we really see or look for anything else? Maybe we should. Suppose for a second that total team pitching by both clubs has a 60% influence on the outcome of the game. Seems awfully high to me as it is the team that scores the most runs that wins a game, but let's suppose. Let's suppose that the average SP lasts 6 innings, again, seems awfully high to me as 7 innings/start average pitched is the absolute max by todays elite SP's, but let's suppose.

If 60% of the game is pitching, then the other 40% would encompass hitting, fielding, weather, umpires, fans, etc. If SP lasts 6 innings on average as a whole, then that would be 67% of the 60%, or in other words, SP would have a 40% influence on the game with each SP having a 20% each influence on the game. It starts looking kind of small from that perspective if that is all you handicap games on. Obviously, the elite pitchers (Martinez, Johnson, Clemens) have more influence on the outcome of a game as opposed to an triple A stop-gap starter, but would it suprise you if I told you that each of the above listed pitchers averaged less than 7 innings/start? Check it out!

My question is this, what value do you believe pitching to have on the outcome of a game? Even if you answered 100%, if a starter lasts on average 6 innings, then each teams SP could only have a 33% influence on the outcome of the game on average.

Thoughts?

[brs14ku]

Personally I only consider SP's if it is an elite pitcher or if the matchup(both of them) are above average. In the situation that both are above average I consider playing the under. Actually when a guy like Pedro is on the mound I would rather stay away from the game because the juice is too high to play his team but the chances of them winning is to high for me to play the dog. Elite SP's actually make me avoid the games if that makes any sense. How bout you Kutz?

[Kutz]

SP/team pitching figure to be about 40% in determining the outcome of a game, probably less if the pitcher is not elite, IMO. Therefore, SP constitutes approx 25% of the total game outcome.

[BangTheBook]

I look at starting picthing and there last 3 outtings. Next I look at bullpen and how much it has been used the last 2-3days. Team batting average vs lft/rght home away. Finally I look at the umps. Not much yet but mid season is a good time