Baseball Betting Tips

[jtsneaks]

This is just a simple article but a good one

Baseball Betting 101

Almost every team in the majors will do two things in a regular season; win at least 60 games and lose at least 60 games. The best teams will win between 90 and 100 games in a season, which means that they'll lose between 60 and 70. And they'll probably be favored in most of those games. So it becomes apparent that betting on those teams every day, even though they may win most of the time, won't necessarily produce a profit, thanks to the odds they have to lay each game. On the other end, the worst teams will lose 90-100 games. But because of the odds they receive as underdogs each day, backers can stay close to the break-even mark, and with a little luck even make money. There, in a nutshell, is the purpose of the money line; to even things out in the long run.

There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball. Each team, barring excessive rainouts or cancellations, plays 162 games. That comes to 2,430 regular-season games. Now, it's also generally accepted that a healthy percentage of those games will be part of a streak of some kind, either winning or losing, on the part of at least one of the teams in a game. Three-game winning streaks often become runs of four, five, six, seven and more. The same goes for losing streaks. Some bettors prefer to wager that streaks will come to an end, but they can only win that bet once. Betting on a hot team, after they've won three games in a row, can be profitable. The Oakland A's a couple of years ago won 20 games in a row. Can you imagine backing the A's every day for 17 days in a row, and winning all those bets?

A baseball bet that's becoming more popular is the "run line" wager. Simply put, the run line is a combination of the point spread and the money line. Instead of taking a favorite to win a game at -150 and above, the bettor can choose to bet the run line, in which that favorite gives 1 ½ runs to the opponent. In exchange, the bettor gets better odds. A favorite of -150 can become an even-money play when bet on the run line. Underdogs, too, can be played, and instead of having to win the game outright, need to either win outright or lose by less than the 1 ½ runs. Most run-line bettors, however, use the run line to take favorites, conceding the danger of losing the bet if the favorite wins by exactly one run.

A note here about pitchers. The probable starting pitchers are listed in sportspages and sportsbooks. The line on each game is based in large part on who is scheduled to take the mound. But sometimes the listed starting pitcher is, for one reason or another, replaced with little notice. Fortunately, bettors have protection against this. They can specify that their bet only take place if the "listed" pitchers take the mound. If both or even one of the listed pitchers doesn't start the game, the bet is off. Be sure to know if this option is available to you.

Also, totals are posted on almost every MLB game. Baseball over/unders are not only based on the teams, the pitchers, the line-ups, and the ballparks, but also on the weather, the home-plate umpires, and other things. Umpire stats and rotations can be somewhat difficult to find, but they are available on the Internet.

Finally, a word of advice; as mentioned above, there are over 2,400 Major League Baseball games during the regular season. Be patient. Be picky. Don't bet 10 games a night. If you don't like tonight's schedule, take a pass. There's always 15 more games tomorrow.


JT Sneaks

[brs14ku]

We should make this a sticky..... here is another nice article to consider when betting on baseball.

How Weather Affects Baseball

As a baseball flies through the air, the air pushes back against it, resisting its motion and decreasing the distance the ball travels. If you don't believe air can provide much resistance, stick your arm out of a car window at 60 mph and feel the push. The density of air is different from place-to-place and from day-to-day depending on temperature, humidity and air pressure.. In thin (or low density) air a ball can travel faster and farther because there's less air resistance. Let's breakdown the baseball importance of these atmospheric variables:

1. Pressure. Air under low pressure is less dense, or thinner, than air under high pressure. This is the main reason long balls carry farther in Denver-the atmospheric pressure at that altitude is always about 15% less than sea level pressures. A hit that would have flown 400 ft at sea level would carry to 430 ft in the thin air of Coors Stadium. This permanent effect of Denver's high altitude is duly noted by the oddsmakers, however, resulting in totals typically in the 12-14 range, reducing the opportunity to simply bet OVERS and win most of the time. The day-to-day pressure changes of the atmosphere, however, are not considered by the oddsmakers, but these daily pressure differences at stadiums caused by the meanderings of the high and low pressures depicted on weather charts are very small. On a low pressure day the pressure is only one or two per cent lower than on a normal day, so a 400 ft shot would only carry a whopping 402 ft! Obviously this effect is too small to worry about, especially since there are other atmospheric factors that actually make a big difference-read on!

2. Humidity. Air with high humidity is less dense, or thinner, than dry air. But this effect so slight it it would only account for a long ball traveling a few inches farther on a humid day. There is, however, a significant and unexpected effect of humidity. According to Professor Robert Adair, the dean of baseball physicists, a baseball in a humid environment is actually heavier and less elastic than a dry ball, and, therefore, cannot be hit as far. The exact amount of this effect can only be determined experimentally, but, based on the data we've seen, we estimate a 400 ft shot on a day with average humidity would carry 415 ft on a very dry day with low humidity.

3. Temperature. Warm air is less dense, or thinner, than cold air. A would-be 400ft shot at 75 degrees would carry 408ft at 95 degrees.

4. Wind. Air moving along in the same direction the ball is flying pushes back less on the ball, allowing it to travel farther. In fact, the wind is very often the single most important thing to consider about the weather when betting baseball totals. A 400ft shot in calm conditions would turn into a 445ft blast with a 15 mph wind directed out to center field. So you can see on many occasions wind is more important even than the altitude in determining the total runs scored in baseball games....

[jtsneaks]

The infamous phrase ‘Play Ball’ will be heard in ballparks throughout America on Monday, and so starts the marathon that is the Major League Baseball season. With such a lengthy campaign, the age-old phrase, “Steady Eddy wins the race” has never rung more true than it does when betting the bases.

While baseball in general, that is being a fan, handicapper, bettor, and even fantasy league manager, has been a long time personal pastime of mine (and occupation), many people pack up their bankrolls come summer and miss out on a great opportunity to profit during the summer months.

However, as with any sport, if you don’t know what you are doing you can find yourself gone broke quickly. This is even more the case on the bases if you choose to start chasing around heavy favorites on the moneyline.

Here are a few key things for baseball beginners to consider while taking their turn at bat, in hopes of hitting profits on the dusty diamond:

MONEYLINES

Perhaps the most obvious difference between betting baseball, as compared to football, or hoops is that you are required to do so on the moneyline (ML), as opposed to beating spreads (ATS). Basically you are simply picking the winner and the price you pay is adjusted depending upon who is the favorite, or underdog.

This can be a dangerous proposition for a baseball beginner who is prone to playing big favorites. Keep in mind that with every –300 favorite you lose, you must win three to get back to even. With that said you could also put a huge strain on your bankroll if you take the polar opposite approach, and continually try to land the big underdogs.

A safer route for the beginner would be to stick to playing small favorites, small underdogs, and totals. If you stay between the ‘140’s, you shouldn’t stray too far off the beaten path assuming you’re winning a fair percentage.

If the situation arises that you feel you must play the bigger odds, perhaps try doing so on the runline to minimize potential disaster.

RUNLINES

To keep it simple, by playing the runline you are basically creating a line of 1 ½-runs on the game and you then choose whether you wish to ‘take’ or ‘give’ the 1 ½-run spread.

For example if you wanted to wager on the Yankees as a –250 favorite, but were a little hesitant to pay the big price, you could bet New York on the runline. To win your bet, the Yankees would have to win by two runs. The –250 moneyline price would most likely look more like –150 on the runline.

Of course more than 20-percent of MLB games end in a one run differential, so you must weigh that factor before running around playing the RL on every game.

Also keep in mind that as you can lay the 1 ½-runs for the favorite, you can also take them and play the underdog. To win this bet the underdog must either win, or lose by a run to cover the runline. However, in this case you are asked to pay a higher price for the cushion and in many cases there isn’t much value to be found.

REDUCED JUICE

When wagering on any sport, besides winning, money management and shopping for value remains the single most important factor. It takes discipline and is one area where many people falter. Remember a baseball season could see you make upwards of 200-300 wagers, and with that size of a sample you can get ‘juiced’ quite easily.

With all of the online books available there is no reason that you should be playing a 20-cent baseball line. Check out the recommended sportsbooks at both Covers Experts and Torreysports to ensure you are getting the best bang for your buck.

Always have multiple outs to ensure the best line, or price, and take advantage of weekly specials (such as half-priced juice) that these books offer. Your pocketbook will thank you for it in the end.

SIDES

There’s a age old baseball handicapping philosophy that reminds us that even if a team has a spectacular season and wins 100 games, they would still lose 62 games. That means even the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals of the MLB circuit will lose an estimated 38–percent of their games, despite being asked to eat chalk on consistent bases.

Now that doesn’t mean that you go ahead and fade the Yankees each time they take the field, but it does mean that in most cases there’s not much value in playing the fan favorites. Not to mention that these top teams are quite capable of producing long win streaks.

Getting back on track, in addition to the money-management side of baseball you do have to pick some winners. Remember that in no other sport (or none we know of..) does one single player have as much effect on the outcome of a game than a starting pitcher. With that in mind, it’s the obvious place to start when handicapping your games.

Also consider that baseball is played series by series, so you want to know where the series stands when doing your research. For example, is one team down 0-3 in a four game set? It can also be collectively very streaky, with entire lineups riding good and bat hitting streaks as a unit.

TOTALS

Of course there’s more to baseball then just picking which team is going to win. Betting totals can prove to be both entertaining (although sometimes watching under bets can be as painful as pulling teeth) as well as profitable.

In addition, in most cases you can bet totals at –110 or even cheaper if you shop. If nothing else, that fact alone should be proof enough that baseball totals should not be overlooked.

In many instances you may have a very good feel for how a game is going to play out, without necessarily knowing who’s going to wind up the victor.

BALLPARKS

Without spending too much time on ballparks, you should at least be aware of the different MLB venues and the general characteristics of each. For example the ball travels very well at Rogers Center in Toronto, and of course Coors Field in Colorado has been a launching pad for years now.

Obviously the oddsmakers are aware of these trends, and in most cases make the proper adjustments. However, if you are not personally aware you could wind up at a considerable disadvantage.

In most cases if you’re a baseball fan, you have a pretty good idea about the characteristics of these different parks. If that’s the case do not spend to much time here. Do take a few minutes to check the weather.

BULLPENS

Bullpens are perhaps the most commonly overlooked variable in baseball handicapping. How many times have you seen your bet go sour the minute the manager made that dreaded call?

It’s going to happen, and relievers are going to blow chances no occasion. It’s frustrating for sure, but it’s also part of the game. The point we are trying to make is do not overlook these guys. Check for performance and recent workload.

Keep the basics that were covered in both parts of this article and you will stand a better chance of coming out ahead this baseball season. Batter up!
Shawn's Picks

[BangTheBook]

Great Stuff Guys!

[jtsneaks]

In Part 1 of my ‘Betting Baseball’ article, I wrote about coming into the season with an open mind about the fortunes of the 30 teams in MLB. The concept of ‘no preconceived notions’ can work when we’re talking about teams. It does not work when talking about pitchers. Obviously, Mark Mulder deserves to be favored over Tomo Okha today; Matt Morris over Taylor Buckholz tomorrow.


But starting pitchers routinely get over or under priced based on things that have little to do with their expected performance in the upcoming game – an overall win/loss record; an overall ERA; a long term reputation. As a bettor, we can find great value when we look past the overall numbers and concentrate instead on breaking down pitcher’s ‘splits’.


The splits tell the hidden story behind the overall numbers – how a starter does against a particular team, in a particular stadium, against right handed or left handed lineups. Day/night and road/home splits are probably the first place to start. You can find them right here at Covers.com, on the baseball matchup pages, simply by clicking on the starting pitcher’s name.


Take a hard look at the aforementioned Mark Mulder for a prime example. Mulder finished 2005 with a 16-8 overall record and a solid 3.64 ERA in his 32 starts for the Cardinals – very good numbers. But when you break down those numbers, significant patterns emerge that are extremely relevant for serious bettors.


The most basic split is examining how a pitcher does at home versus how he does on the road. Mulder had a 2.59 ERA in 15 starts at home last year, but a 4.74 ERA in his 17 road starts. He gave up twice as many homers and nearly twice as many earned runs away from Busch Stadium, despite pitching fewer innings. Clearly, savvy bettors looked for opportunities to bet on Mulder and/or the Under at home, while looking to bet against the Cardinals or bet the Over when Mulder was starting on the road.


Mulder also had a significant dichotomy between his daytime and nighttime numbers. In 11 starts in the daylight, Mulder allowed his opponents to hit .350 against him, with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. In 21 nighttime starts, Mulder’s opponents hit .225 against him, with a 2.26 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Those are important numbers to consider before making a wager on or against Mulder, don’t you think?


The value of splits don’t end there. Look at Mulder’s performance against left handed batters vs. right handed batters. Righties hit .289 vs. the Cardinals southpaw, but lefties were completely stymied, hitting only .201 against him. So, when facing a left handed lineup like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Mulder and/or the Under might be worth supporting . But when Mulder is facing a primarily right handed lineup like that of the Chicago Cubs, bettors paying attention to the splits should look to go against him and/or bet the Over.


The hard numbers show that theory holds truth. Mulder’s lone start against Arizona in 2005 saw him pitch a complete game shutout, but in three starts against the Cubs, Chicago hit .338 against him and Mulder lost two of those three decisions.

[jtsneaks]

In Part 1 of this article on beating sides in baseball, I wrote about the concept of avoiding “preconceived notions” about how good or bad teams are expected to be. Obviously, heading into 2006, we know that the Yankees are going to be better than the Royals. But for the vast majority of the teams in baseball their health, their ability to win one run games and their overall team chemistry will determine whether they are a 70 win team or a 90 win team more accurately than any preseason prognostication.

In Part 2 of this article, I wrote about the importance of discounting overall numbers for starting pitchers, concentrating instead on the ‘splits’. Baseball betting lines are set based on starting pitching more than any other factor, so it’s crucial to examine the pitching numbers that really matter and ignore the numbers that don’t. Day/night, home/road and lefty/righty splits are a very good place to start when handicapping any upcoming game.

My baseball sides philosophy is not overly complicated. We’ve examined two concepts, and there’s really only one more key notion worthy of note. That notion can be stated in a single phrase: Don’t overvalue starting pitching, because it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

Handicappers (in my opinion) and the baseball betting marketplace tend to overreact to the quality of the starting pitchers. There were 4860 decisions last year in major league baseball: 30 teams, 162 games apiece. Starting pitchers went 1588-1572 for the year; relievers went 841-857. In other words, games were won and lost by the bullpens just about 35% of the time.

But it goes even deeper than that. Of those 4860 decisions last year, there were exactly 190 complete games thrown in the major leagues. The bullpens get involved more than 96% of the time. For every Chris Carpenter or Dontrelle Willis (tied for the MLB lead in complete games in ’05 with seven), there are literally dozens of starters that aren’t going to see the ninth inning even on their best day.

Baseball lines are set with the highest of emphasis on starting pitching. Just look at the results from the opening week of the season. The Mets were -115 favorites against the Nationals last Wednesday, with Brian Bannister starting against John Patterson. The very next night, New York was -230 with Pedro Martinez against Ramon Ortiz!

Remember, every other player on the field for both sides was the same in the two games. The bullpens behind the starters were the same. The managers and coaches were the same. I’m not going to make the case that there’s no difference between Pedro and Bannister. I am going to make the case that there isn’t $1.15 worth of difference between them on a betting line.

It’s surely worth noting that the Mets lost when Bannister was on the hill because of their bullpen. Bannister left the game with a one run lead, Billy Wagner blew the save opportunity in the ninth, and then Jorge Julio got bombed in the tenth. Pedro Martinez left Thursday’s game with the same one run lead as Bannister had enjoyed the previous night. This time, however, reliever Duaner Sanchez pitched out of trouble and Chad Bradford sealed the deal for a Mets victory.

There are literally dozens of reasons to discount the effect of starting pitching. Riding hot teams and fading cold ones has nothing to do with the starters. Betting on teams with a fresh bullpen or against teams with tired arms in the pen isn’t about the starting pitching either. Looking for good teams to avoid the series sweep is a third. Finding live underdogs that don’t get swept and betting them after a loss in the first game of the series is a fourth. Looking for underdogs with a history of success against their opponent is a fifth. I could go on indefinitely, but I think you get my point.

Here’s a classic example from August of last year. Tampa Bay had Doug Waechter starting at home against the Yankees Randy Johnson. The Devil Rays were in good current form, having won three of their previous four games. Tampa was a classic road/home dichotomy team in ’05, finishing with the second worst record in baseball on the road, but only one game below.500 at home. They had demonstrated success against the Yanks throughout the course of the season, taking seven out of eleven from the Bronx Bombers prior to that ballgame.

Waechter is a horrible starter, getting bombed on a consistent basis, with a 5.41 career ERA. The Big Unit, of course, is a future Hall of Famer. He was in the midst of a dominating 17-8 season. The linesmakers installed New York as -250 favorites, and the money came in on the Yankees.

The starting pitching matchup said that this was supposed to be a one sided ballgame. Everything else about the game said that Tampa Bay had more than a fighting chance to win. Both starters pitched well enough to win, but Tampa’s momentum continued as they got to the Yankees bullpen, and won the game in extra innings.

So, here’s the key phrase once again: “Don’t overvalue starting pitching”. The betting marketplace demands that bettors pay a heavy price to support quality starters. Savvy bettors realize that starting pitching is only one piece of the equation, and the best value often comes from betting against good pitchers when they are installed as heavy favorites against decent competition.

In my next article, we’ll take a good look at betting baseball totals – my bread and butter

[jtsneaks]

One area where linesmakers have difficulty adjusting, regardless of the sport, is in handling streaks. Hot or cold, over or under – teams get into a rut or a rhythm, and continue to play that way for weeks, even months.


I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know a thing about hockey. I’ve never played (heck, I can’t even skate), nor am I a fan. I don’t know the players, the coaches or the arenas, let alone the subtle nuances of the sport. Does that mean I ignore hockey as a betting opportunity? Absolutely not! I bet one thing in hockey – streaks. For example, when John Grahame has tended goal for Tampa Bay, the total has gone over in 12 of the last 13 times. I couldn’t pick Grahame out of a police lineup, but I know that he’s padded my bankroll when he dons the pads for the Lightning, then demonstrates his sieve-like goaltending.


Streak betting is not about identifying why a particular trend is occurring. It’s about winning wagers, riding the same angle, trend or circumstance over and over. That said, a streak with a rational reason behind it can be bet confidently until the season ends or the streak stops winning. In the aforementioned instance, we might hypothesize that the Lightning do not trust their weak goaltender, so they put more pressure on the offensive end and take a more aggressive approach when Grahame is in net.


Totals tend to offer more streaks than side bets, because linesmakers are restricted in their ability to adjust the number. In the Grahame example, Tampa Bay has not been assigned a total higher than seven throughout the 12-game streak. The vast majority of hockey totals are lined between 5.5 and 6.5. There simply isn’t much elasticity within numbers in that range. If the Lightning and their opponents combined to score 10 goals in 10 consecutive games, the next posted total would still not exceed seven.


Totals streaks are not unique to hockey. Last year, in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors went 20-4 against the Over when they played with no rest or their opponent played without rest. Again, we can hypothesize why this trend is occurring. The Warriors defensive intensity simply wasn’t there on the second night of back-to-back games, and Golden State was looking to push the pace at every opportunity against unrested foes of their own. But, why the trend is occurring is less significant than spotting the trend. I cashed for more than 15 units of profit by simply betting the Warriors Over the total in back-to-back situations.


The Dallas Mavericks had a strong streak going until this last week. Head coach Avery Johnson has been preaching defense since his first day on the job. His defensive message doesn’t seem to work all the time, but he captures his team’s collective attention following a loss. The Mavs went under in 12 of the last 13 games following a defeat until their three game losing streak this week. The lone Over came in an overtime game that was Under the total at the end of regulation.


Baseball’s Oakland A’s have been a streaky team every year. In 2005, after a rough start, they went 12-1 prior to the All-Star break. They went on a 16-2 tear starting in late July. It’s worth noting that the A’s cashed as underdogs 10 times during these streaks, as linesmakers were slow to adjust to Oakland’s hot play.


Totals streaks in baseball are even easier to find and profit from. Baseball totals at every ballpark (except for Mile High Coors Field) range from a low of seven and a high of 11.5, with an occasional 6.5 or 12. Even when two hot hitting teams square off using two mediocre starters, the total is not going to be 14. Similarly, when two cold hitting teams send two dominant starters to the mound, the total is not going to be 5. So, it’s very difficult for linesmakers to compensate sufficiently within the limited confines of the standard range of totals. While linesmakers don’t hesitate to price a dominant favorite at - 300, they don’t seem to make the same adjustments when setting baseball totals.


Betting volume is lighter in late spring and the summer months. Even if you take some time off from betting during this time of the year, waiting for football to arrive in August, there’s absolutely no reason that you can’t continue to build your bankroll slowly and steadily over the summer months by betting on streaks to continue.


Savvy bettors know that you can win only once by betting against a streak, but you can win over and over again when you are betting that a streak will continue, and they often do.

[nms4912]

I like what you guys have done, but when it comes to betting in baseball i just bet against the Yankees lol. i truly do hate the yankees, which may be the reason y im not such a good gambler.

[thetimmer]

cool,sound like all you guys have some good advise on this subjust,i hope i can put it to good use

[freezerburn]

wow thanks i need the tips