 MLB 4th of July
Saturday Afternoon Baseball
The fourth of July gives us more than just hot dog contests to bet on this afternoon there is a full slate of MLB action!
Seattle +198
Has anyone paid attention to Seattle lately? They are playing some good baseball and have won 4 out of 6 on the road against LA, NY, and Boston. Olson’s numbers are a bit deceiving, he has a high ERA of over 6 in his last three but his WHIP is just .098. Combine that with a 3-0 road record and you have a decent starter. Penny has been a good pick up for the sox but he is just 2-2 in day games and the Red Sox pen has struggled mightily lately. Mariners are 10-2 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and the Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
White Sox / Royals Over 8.5
The White sox are red hot right now and they are getting it done with pitching and with timely hitting. Floyd has pitched well in his last three but he is just 3-3 with an ERA of almost 6 on the road so I look for a correction in his recent performance today. The over is 6-2 on those games he started on the road and in his last two games at KC he has allowed 11 runs. Hochevar is in the same boat with his recent performance, and his problem is his K/BB ratio. At home this year he has walked more people than he has struck out. Over is 13-5 in Floyds last 18 starts vs. American League Central and the Over is 12-5 in Royals last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Finally there is an over umpire behind the plate and the over is 11-4-2 in McClellands last 17 games behind home plate. This game should be filled with plenty of offensive fireworks.
Cubs -155
Don’t look now but here come the Cubbies. They have won four out of five and making a push at the right time in the season. Harden will go today and although he has struggled in day games he does well against the Brewers. He has allowed just 1 earned in each of his three starts. The Brewers are not hitting in the clutch and the Cubs are taking advantage of it. The Cubs are 13-7 in game three of a series and 7-1 after a win. Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and the Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a favorite
Reds -110
The Reds lost a painful game last night after coming out to a big lead. Dusty may walk Pujols with the bases load today if he comes up in that spot. The Reds will score more runs today with Thompson going for the red birds. He is 1-2 in his last three with an ERA over 6 and the Cards are just giving him 3 per game in support. The Reds start Micha Owings and will get an extra bat in the lineup as this pitcher can hit too. Home team is 10-4 in Cederstroms last 14 games behind home plate and the Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Play Against
Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS)
with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
77-50 over the last 5 seasons.
60.6% (37.1 units)
~Matt
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