 TB / Sox Series
Boston Red Sox (-123) versus Tampa Bay Rays (+113)
Well, there was no reason to expect the public to start respecting the Rays now, and they didn’t. Tampa Bay is the first team with home-field advantage to be an underdog in these playoffs.
This line isn’t as unreasonable as it would seem from just looking at the teams’ two regular season records (the Rays won two additional games) since Boston’s run differential was actually 48 runs better than Tampa Bay’s.
But run differential doesn’t tell the whole story either, since the Red Sox come into the series with ace Josh Beckett banged up, and third baseman Mike Lowell not even on the ALCS roster.
The reason Boston is favored doesn’t have much to do with anything in the last two things mentioned. It’s because of the names and histories of the two teams; the Red Sox have shed the “losers” label by winning two titles over the last four seasons, while the Rays had never won 70 games prior to this year. The perception may have changed significantly since the spring, but it’s hard to do a complete 180 in just a few months.
This can most clearly be seen in the Game 1 line, with the Rays, playing at home with their ace on the mound, barely favored (-110/+102).
Daisuke Matsuzaka, may have the name recognition, and the impressive win-loss record (18-2), but Jamie Shields is simply a better pitcher. Matsuzaka has slightly better strikeout and groundball rates, but his walk rate of 5.1 BB/9 is three times as high as Shields.
There will probably be significant value in most of Tampa Bay’s game lines this series, but Friday night’s game may be the best opportunity to bet on them because Matsuzaka is about as overrated as it gets.
Overall, like the NLCS, this is a pretty evenly matched series. The Red Sox are better (even after the injuries), while the Rays have the extra game at home.
At these odds, I’d definitely take Tampa Bay, and even without them I think the Rays take it in 7.
Pick: Rays
Raji | 
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