Dodgers Vs Philly

[Raji]

Los Angeles Dodgers (+101) at Philadelphia Phillies (-111)

I was hoping the Phillies would be favored by a bit more than this, but I guess the Dodgers caught everybody’s attention with their sweep of the Cubs.

The lineup that Los Angeles put on the field in Game 3 against Chicago bears very little resemblance to what it looked like less than three months ago, and I think people are starting to realize that.

From May 6 through July 31—that’s the period after Rafael Furcal got hurt, and before they traded for Manny Ramirez—the Dodgers hit .244/.303/.359. They averaged 3.66 runs per game; for comparison, the Padres had the worst offense in the majors this year, averaged 3.93 R/G.

The Dodgers may have won just 84 games during the regular season, but this is a different team; this team, as presently constructed, would’ve run away with the NL West, probably winning 90-95 games.

We were able to take advantage of this in the first round, when the Cubs were favored by an outrageous amount against LA, but this price seems about right. After all, the Phillies do have home-field advantage, and Cole Hamels going in Game 1.

Both teams have excellent bullpens; the Dodgers probably have the edge in the rotation since Philadelphia can’t match their 1-2 punch of Lowe and Billingsley.

That, I think, is where the value will lie in this series.

As was very clearly seen in the opening line of Game 2 of the Cubs-Dodgers series—the Cubs opened as ridiculous -170 favorites—people clearly don’t yet understand just how good Chad Billingsley is. Maybe it’s his age (24), or the fact he had a win-loss record of just 9-9 in mid-July, because the Dodgers couldn’t score any runs for him.

Not only is Billingsley one of the best young pitchers in the league, he’s one of the best pitchers, of any age, in baseball. People may realize that a couple weeks from now, but I don’t think they have yet, and there should be some value in backing him in Game 2.

For the series overall, I really do think it’s a tossup; it’s almost impossible to predict a series like this when the two teams are so evenly matched. I’ll go Dodgers in 7, behind a strong 1-2 punch in the rotation and a couple big hits from their Hall of Fame left fielder.

Pick: Dodgers

Raji

[Raji]

Derek Lowe (Los Angeles Dodgers) vs. Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)

Derek Lowe RHP (14-11, 3.24 ERA)

Lowe’s playoff savvy shone through in his six innings against the Cubs in Game 1 of the NLDS last Wednesday. He gave up just two runs on seven hits while striking out six batters and walking just one.

That win improved Lowe’s postseason career mark to 5-4 and dropped his October ERA to 3.31. He has four league championship series starts going back to his days with the Red Sox. Through 1999, 2003 and 2004, Lowe has pitched just under 32 innings of LCS baseball and posts a 4.26 ERA over those games.

This season, Lowe was 1-0 in his only start against the Phillies. He allowed three earned runs on five hits through 6 1/3-innings of work during an 8-6 Dodgers victory in Los Angeles August 11.

Lowe is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts in Philly, and boasts a 4-1 career record and ERA just over 3.00 against the Phillies.

Cole Hamels LHP (14-10, 3.09 ERA)

Hamels performed like a seasoned veteran during his eight-inning masterpiece against the Brewers last Wednesday. The young lefty allowed just two hits, no run and sent nine batters packing in the 3-1 Philadelphia victory.

That gem evens Hamels’ postseason record to 1-1 and sliced his October ERA in half, dropping it to 1.84. He will make his NLCS debut Thursday night in Citizens Bank Park, where he is 8-7 with a homefield ERA of 2.80.

Hamels has faced the Dodgers only twice in his short career and both were nearly identical starts that had opposite finishes. He threw seven innings against Los Angeles and allowed two runs on five hits in a 9-2 August 23. The previous season he pitched the same amount innings, allowed the same number of hits and gave up the exact amount of runs for a 4-3 loss.

Raji

[minet123]

I have to agree Phillies years of futility will continue Dodgers easy tonight

[BangTheBook]

I am on the same side, Philly has had a good run but there is something about this Dodger team.

Dodgers 2 units myself