who's hot / not

[Raji]

It’s time for another weekly installment of Money Arms, a look at five of the hottest and most profitable starting pitchers in baseball.

This week I’m going to widen my scope and not only take a look at who’s hot, but also who’s not. As usual, there are a few surprises at both ends of the spectrum.

Who’s Hot:

Livan Hernandez, Minnesota Twins (+$790)

It’s not as if the Twins are setting the world on fire, so it should come as a bit of a surprise that veteran gas can, Livan Hernandez, is the league leader in terms of money earned from a betting standpoint. The Twins are 7-1 in his eight trips to the bump. Not only that, but "over" bettors have been raking in the dough to the tune of a 6-2 over/under record. Brought on as an inning-eater, Hernandez has done much more than that in the early going.


Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks (+$714)

Has there been a better pitcher on the planet over the last year? Webb continues to roll towards what could be a record-setting win total. He has won each of his first eight starts this season and all but two of those have been decided by two runs or more. Like Hernandez, Webb has also played to the over, at a 5-2-1 clip. Is a 30-win season out of the question? I’m not so sure it isn't. He’ll get plenty of help along the way from a D-Backs lineup that is sneaky good.

Vicente Padilla, Texas Rangers (+$660)

Bet you didn’t think you’d see the likes of Padilla on this list. The Rangers have won six of his first eight starts this season, and they’ve done so as the underdog on six different occasions. It hasn’t been all smoke and mirrors either; Padilla is actually pitching quite well. He has posted a 3.02 ERA overall and has given up only one run over his last three starts. Throw away one rocky start against Detroit and we’re talking about Cy Young numbers. Can he keep it up? Probably not. But for now, he is definitely a play-on starter.

Who’s Not:

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (-$456)

Cueto turned heads in his first two starts of the season, striking out 18 without walking a single batter. Unfortunately it’s been all downhill from there. The Reds have dropped five of his last six starts and he has given up five earned runs or more in three of his last five. Away from home, Cueto has been an absolute disaster, going 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA. Thanks to that hot start, oddsmakers are still giving him some respect and that’s music to my ears. My advice; look to fade Cueto anytime he is laying juice in the coming weeks.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (-$530)

My biggest regret so far in this baseball season has been that I didn’t get on board the Weaver Fade Train earlier. I watched a lot of his starts a year ago and felt that he would struggle to regain the form that saw him become a standout prospect in the Angels system. He had an outstanding rookie season, but what has he done since then? Not much. After struggling down the stretch last season, he has picked up right where he left off; going 2-5 through his first eight starts in 2008. With a 7.56 ERA over his last three outings, his mechanics seem to be headed in the wrong direction. Don’t be surprised if he earns a stint in the bullpen at some point.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (-$837)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Tigers ace has fallen out of favor in Detroit thanks to a 1-6 start. After flirting with 20 wins the last two seasons, Verlander has looked like the second coming of Mike Maroth so far this year. At least he’s been consistent. His ERA is north of 6.00 at home, on the road, in the afternoon, and at night. Nothing is working for the young righty at the moment and like Weaver, you have to wonder if a trip to the pen is imminent for him too.


Raji