Twib

[Raji]

Monday, April 28

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

The Yankees took Game 3 of this series on Sunday, avoiding a 0-3 hole in the four-game set as well as avoiding a four-game losing streak. The victory pushed New York back to .500 while it also snapped the Indians five-game winning streak. While it was a win, the offense continues to be very average as it scored just one run and dropped its average to .268, a far cry from its Major League-leading .290 average last season. The Yankees face resurgent Detroit for a three-game series up next.

Tuesday, April 29

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

The Padres managed only one victory during their short five-game homestand and they are struggling right now with losses in 10 of their last 12 games. They will play against a relatively hot Phillies team that is 6-3 over their last nine games but the real storyline is Greg Maddux as he tries to secure victory number 350. He has had two chances and came up short both times. He has faced the Phillies only twice since 2004, going 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA. Maddux will become just the ninth pitcher in history to win 350.

Wednesday, April 30

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks

Randy Johnson will be making his fourth start of the season and he is coming off his first victory since June of last year. He has looked good in his return, tossing two quality games, making it seven of his last 10 dating back to last season. He will be opposed by Shawn Chacon who has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this year. He has tossed five quality games yet does not have a victory to show for it. The Astros have scored an average of 3.4 runs per game in his five starts, scoring three runs or fewer four times.

Thursday May 1

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

This is the final game of the three-game set between the Brewers and the Cubs. The Cubs had the second best record in baseball going into the week and Milwaukee is expected to be the one team that can give them a run in the National League Central. The Brewers won the first series in 2008 to open the season and even though it is early, these games can go a long way. Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano will get the ball and in his six starts, he has allowed two runs or fewer five times.

Friday, May 2

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Mets will be making their first trip to the west coast as they begin a six-game roadtrip starting with the Diamondbacks this weekend and then the Dodgers beginning next week. New York will be facing Brandon Webb, who is once again off to a hot start with a 5-0 record. He is now 23-4 in April and May since 2005, easily the best two-month record of any pitcher in baseball. However he is just 2-6 in nine career starts against the Mets despite sporting a 2.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Saturday, May 3

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

This might not sound like a great matchup from a team-vs.-team standpoint but the starting pitching duel makes it just that. Two of the best young pitchers in the game square off as 23-year old Tim Lincecum takes on 24-year old Cole Hamels. Lincecum has started the season 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA and while Hamels is just 2-3, he has pitched better than that indicates as he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while opposing hitters are batting just .201. This has the makings of a classic.

Raji

[Raji]

t’s always tough to know how much stock to put in to the beginning of the baseball season. You look at the standings and see that the Marlins are 14-10, but what does that mean? Obviously it would be unreasonable to expect Florida to continue winning 58 percent of their games, but what significance does their early season success have?



If we just look at a team’s place in the standings, the answer is almost none. Strange things can happen in 24 games - a couple timely hits and favorable bounces can turn 10-14 into 14-10. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the early season results- it just means that they need to be put into context.



The Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings do exactly that. They list each team’s wins and losses, but also go a lot deeper than that, making multiple adjustments. The first of these is very simple: their Pythagorean record shows how many games they should have won based on how many runs they have scored and allowed. This is a common thing to look at, as it has more predictive value than a team’s actual record.



This early in the season though, one adjustment is not enough. Teams can still get lucky and score more runs than they should have. To account for this, there are two more adjustments. The first considers how many runs a team should have scored, based on their on-base percentage, slugging percentage, etc. This is useful because it takes out things like timely hitting, which can have a significant effect on how many runs a team scores, but don’t really tell us anything about the future. The other takes into account the strength of a teams schedule- this can vary widely throughout the league less than a month into the season.



Looking at the standings that result from these adjustments can give us a much better idea of what to expect going forward than a team’s W-L record. For example, the Marlins are 14-10, but their “third-order” record is only 10.8-13.2. This is partially because they’ve been outscored by their opponents, by four runs. But the main reason is that these opponents have been very week. They have already played 14 games against the Pirates, Nationals, and Astros. I doubt anyone expected the Marlins to keep up their pace, but BP’s standings tell us that they haven’t even been playing that well to begin with.



Conversely, the Diamondbacks appear to be for real. They’ve outscored their opponents by 54 runs, and their third-order record of 15.7-8.3 is easily the best in the majors. The only criticism could be that their schedule hasn’t been particularly strong- that adjustment knocks them down by 1.1 wins- but that’s only a minor complaint. Arizona has opened up a seven-game edge in the West and it looks very unlikely that they’ll relinquish that lead.



The big disappointment early in the year was, of course, the Tigers. But a look at the adjusted standings indicates that they have nothing to be worried about; their biggest problem is that they’ve been unlucky. Their peripheral pitching stats indicate they’d be expected to give up 119 runs, but in reality they’ve given up 136. This is because their opponents have hit .317/.419/.514 with runners in scoring position, which is not a pace that can possibly continue. Detroit’s pitching staff isn’t great, but it’s also not as bad as it seems at the moment.



For each of these teams, it’s still far too early in the season to draw any decisive conclusions. At this point, we should rely much more on our preseason expectations than on their early season performance. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore what has happened- when put in the correct context, a lot can be learned from the first month of the season.

Raji