 Picks and Why walks are important
One often overlooked aspect of baseball betting is the free pass, meaning players drawing walks or pitchers issuing too many four-ball freebies. From a handicapping point of view, this can reap benefits, especially in the early going.
Last year Indians lefty C.C. Sabathia won the Cy Young award winning 19 games. Pinpoint control was a huge part of his success, walking just 37 in 241 innings. Think about that. 34 starts, 37 walks.
It’s interesting that Sabathia has had a rough start, walking seven in 10 innings. Just a slump? Or did all those innings last year take a toll?
One area that attracted the Red Sox to shell out so much money last year for Japanese Daisuke Matsuzaka was his control. The guy not only had a slew of outstanding pitches in his arsenal, but his control was exceptional – in Japan. Last season in the AL he was a little too wild. This season, although it’s early, his control has remarkably improved.
The amount of free passes can tell a lot about a pitcher and help you predict totals. For example, if two starting pitchers are on the hill who walk a lot of guys, it might be worth a play on the over. Or, if a pitcher with great control is going in a park that’s tough to hit in (San Diego, Shea Stadium), he might be a worth a look to back.
A bad mix for winning is a team with a bad bullpen and a starting pitcher who walks too many batters. Walking batters means you’re throwing too many pitches and not going deep into games. And a bad bullpen is a bad mix, as the pen has to throw a lot of innings for the control-challenged starter.
Veteran Greg Maddux has outstanding control and gets to finish out his career, presumably, in San Diego, a great pitcher’s park. A good mix if you like to play unders is a pitcher who throws strikes in a big park, like Maddux in San Diego or Johan Santana, now in Shea Stadium.
I used the factor when Maddux first joined the Padres against the Giants. The Padres were a road favorite, yet the guy they sent to the hill was young Clay Hensley.
I wrote, “He has a tendency to issue far too many free passes. Hensley gave 41 walks in 91 innings on the road last season. San Diego is a great pitcher's park, where Hensley pitches his best and is most comfortable, but on the road he was 3-6 with a 4.34 ERA. All those free passes will hurt against this veteran Giant offense.”
Veteran pitchers are more likely to be focused and relaxed with their first start of the season and successful veterans have likely learned it’s not good to walk too many batters. San Francisco had a stable veteran in that game in Matt Morris, one who has excellent control.
Notice that the home dog won, 5-3, as Hensley walked three batters in fewer than five innings, trailing 5-1. Morris walked just two batters in six efficient innings and got the win. He threw 42 pitches with 29 strikes through three innings.
Getting ahead in the count is key in pitching, and walks can be even more deadly to a pitcher in April as the weather is cooler and less conducive to hitting in many cities.
Raji | 
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