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Old 10-08-2007, 12:54 PM   #1 (permalink)
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The best in the West will collide when division rivals Colorado and Arizona meet in the best-of-seven National League Championship Series.

The Rockies took 10 of the 18 regular season games against the Diamondbacks, hitting .280 versus the Arizona staff. In their most recent run-in, Colorado took two of three at home in the closing days of the regular season.

The NLCS is set to start Thursday at Arizona’s Chase Field. The hometown D-Backs will likely send ace Brandon Webb to the hill to counter Rockies left-hander Jeff Francis.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Why they’ll win: Arizona’s strength will always be its pitching, yet the Diamondbacks were able to generate some surprising numbers at the plate in their NLDS against one of the better pitching staffs in the bigs.

Over the three playoff games with Chicago, Arizona batted .266 (better than the Red Sox’s two-game average) and totaled 16 runs including six home runs. Shortstop Stephen Drew is hitting .500 (7-for-14) in the postseason, with two round-trippers, while Chris Young and Eric Byrnes add some uncharacteristic power to the D-Backs order.

The run support is allowing Arizona’s pitchers to throw stress-free for the first time after a season of nail-biters. The staff held the Cubs’ power hitters in check, keeping a collective 2.00 ERA during the NLDS with 27 strikeouts. Seventeen of those K’s came from starters Brandon Webb and Doug Davis, who’ll likely start both games in Arizona this week.

The Diamondbacks bullpen has been perfect in the late innings recently with a solid three-inning mix of Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon and closer Jose Valverde. Valverde has been untouchable with six strikeouts in three innings of postseason work.

Why they’ll lose: The Diamondbacks were able to do enough damage at the plate to get past the on-again, off-again Chicago offense. Arizona now faces one of the majors’ most potent run-scoring teams.

Arizona was outscored by the Rockies 86-72 over their 18 divisional meetings this season, with Colorado winning 10 of those games. The Desert Snakes will need runners on base when they go yard instead of settling for solo home runs if they’re to match the Rockies output.

It won’t be easy with Colorado pitching the way it is. Rockies pitchers tallied 26 strikeouts against the Phillies in three games – bad news for a D-Backs offense that whiffed 35 times during their division series. The Rox arms are also backed up by the best defense in big league history.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Why they’ll win: It wasn’t only the offense that got the job done for the well-rounded Rockies this postseason.

Colorado came into this series known for its powerful attack. Its hitters batted .298 and averaged over six runs per game in the closing days of the season. The Rockies toned down the power in the NLDS, producing runs by any means necessary.

Colorado had 12 extra-base hits during the three games against Philadelphia, getting great production at the plate from some unlikely sources. Second baseman Kazuo Matsui, catcher Yorvit Torrealba and pinch-hit heroes Seth Smith and Jeff Baker all stepped up in October.

The Rox starters have also performed well, especially rookie hurler Ubaldo Jimenez, who was stellar in Saturday’s Game 3. His coming-out party, as well as solid efforts from Jeff Francis, long reliever Josh Fogg and the one-two punch of Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpus, kept the NL’s best bats dumbfounded for the entire series.

Why they’ll lose: Despite winning the season series, Colorado will have to strike when the iron is hot against the Diamondbacks’ stingy defense – even if it means going against what got it there in the first place.

As bad as the Cubs played against Arizona this past week, Chicago manager Lou Piniella did have the right idea by staying aggressive on the base paths with a lot of hit-and-run situations. The Rockies will have to do the same thing but, unlike the Cubs, hit with runners in scoring position and avoid the multiple double plays that did Chicago in.

This style of baseball isn’t natural for Colorado, which isn’t known for stealing bases and playing small ball. The Rox managed only 100 stolen bases in the regular season and didn’t swipe a single bag in the NLDS.

Pick: Diamondbacks in seven games

Raji
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