Betting the Playoff Races

[Raji]

The MLB playoff race can bring out the best in teams, like the Philadelphia Phillies’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets this weekend.

Philadelphia, a team fighting for its playoff life, moved to within 3 ½ games of the NL East-leading Mets and within 1 ½ of the wild card.

Backers can feel good knowing clubs like the Phillies will scratch and claw for their hard-earned dollars, giving their all every night until October. However bettors might have to give quite a bit themselves if they want to wager on these playoff contenders.

Sportsbooks pay close attention to postseason hopefuls in the final two weeks of the regular season. The oddsmakers will often add extra prices on the teams giving that little extra.

“The ones that are playing with incentive are going to have their prices bumped up a bit,” says Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner. “As a book, you want to pay attention to them and shade them, especially when they play a team that isn’t making the playoffs.”

Korner admits there isn’t much two-way action on games when a playoff-bound club faces a team playing out its season, which is the golden rule of bookmaking. Lines like the ones for this week’s Baltimore-New York or Arizona-San Francisco series require a precise balance. The Yankees and Diamondbacks are in the thick for it, while their opponents are busy tinkering with their order and trying out September callups.

Books don’t want to undervalue a contending team’s drive, but are also careful not to hang an unfair dog tag on the other side in fear that sharp bettors will jump on weaker MLB lines.

Vegas wiseguys say they don't shy away from betting on teams in the postseason mix, however most agree they don’t want to shell out the coin necessary for those bets.

“If you want to win with (playoff contenders),” says lines consultant and professional handicapper David Malinsky, “you have to hope that their extra focus and effort can make up for the fact that you are betting at retail prices, instead of wholesale.”

What most sharps look for are chances to play against postseason-possible teams. Opportunities like this arise when teams in the hunt face teams that, though not involved in a playoff race themselves, still want to finish the year strong and relish the opportunity to play spoiler to a divisional rival’s October aspirations.

The Cincinnati Reds, who have been vocal about ending their season on a high note, are in that situation this week to throw a wrench into the Chicago Cubs’ playoff works. The Cubs are only one game up in the NL Central and have lost seven of the last 12 meetings against the Reds.

Wiseguys also look for teams in the postseason hunt that have been in this situation before and know how to deal with the pressure of the playoff race. Sharps may fade inexperienced teams that can crack under that unfamiliar pressure.

“Teams that have been there before, like the Yankees, Tigers and Padres, are the ones that I want to be backing at this time of year,” says Sean Murphy of The Miller Group. “That of course doesn't include the teams that already have playoff positions wrapped up.”

Competing clubs like the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers, squads not used to the kill-or-be-killed situation that can occur in late September, are susceptible to a collapse after posting losing records over the past few seasons.

Oddsmakers recognize these types of letdown possibilities, as well, and take veteran players into account when setting the lines more than they would at any other time in the season.

“We know the Yankees have been there and Arizona hasn't, so we will favor those teams that have been there more in September,” says Korner. “We always look at the starting pitching first and foremost, but this is when we start looking at the players who have been there before and factoring that into the lines.”

Raji