French Open picks

[Raji]

French Open picks: Men's draw
Tue, Jun 5, 2007By Jon Campbell

One of the things that makes men’s tennis so great is that it’s so different from the women’s side. Where we see eight of the top nine seeds in the quarters in the ladies draw, we have a 19 seed, a 23 seed, and unseeded Russian Igor Andreev among the final eight.

The 19th seeded Guillermo Canas is even favored in his match to beat No. 4 Nikolai Davydenko.

The downside to this mix of players (from a betting perspective, anyway) is that we’re still seeing monster odds in matches that involve guys named Roger and Rafael. Let’s assume they’re going to win and we’ll stick to exact-number-of-sets betting for those matches.

Roger Federer (-1750) vs. Tommy Robredo (+1350)

Fed’s pretty good. I’m not really sure how much detail it’s worth getting into. He has now tied John McEnroe’s records of 35 straight sets won at Grand Slam events and 11 consecutive straight-set victories.

Among those wins was a 6-3, 7-6, 7-5 victory over Robredo in the Australian Open. That makes Fed 7-0 against his Spanish counterpart, who is partial to clay. Robredo is playing some fantastic tennis at Roland Garros though and it’s possible Federer is going to need to break out one of those extra shirts in his bag that haven’t been necessary so far.

But Robredo hasn’t lost a set at the French Open either and his latest win was over Fillipo Volandri, a player who recently beat Federer in Rome. Is that enough to imply that the Spaniard can take down Fed on his quest for the only Grand Slam missing from his resume?

Hardly. But it might be enough to win a set.

Pick: Federer in four sets

Nikolai Davydenko (+119) vs. Guillermo Canas (-129)

I have to give Canas some credit. Since he came back from a suspension for testing positive for banned substances, he hasn’t stopped fighting on or off the court. He continues to maintain his innocence to anyone who’ll listen and in the meantime he’s beaten Federer twice, reached two finals, and just plain worn a lot of opponents out.

Canas never stops tracking down balls and he always makes the guy on the other side of the net work for everything he gets. He doesn’t really have any glaring weaknesses, but doesn’t have anything that really makes him special either, other than his tenacity.

Davydenko has some of the same qualities in that he can track down just about anything. He is among the best returners of serve on the ATP, where he ranks seventh in break points converted and 10th in return games won. He has only beaten Canas once in their three meetings, but the two haven’t met since 2005.

Davydenko was a semifinalist at Roland Garros two years ago, so he may have the edge early in the match if nerves come into play. Canas is playing in his first Grand Slam since 2005 and he’s about to be reminded that the quarterfinals bring a whole different kind of pressure. He was a quarterfinalist here in 2002 and 2005, the only two times he’s reached the quarters at a Grand Slam.

Pick: Davydenko


Raji