Open Picks Round 1

[Raji]

French Open picks: Round 1
Mon, May 28, 2007By Jon Campbell

After a rain delay on Day 1, first round action resumes at Roland Garros. A jammed day of 64 matches were planned for Monday, but another rain delay pushed play back a few hours. Monday could see more showers and temperatures are cool in the mid 50s, though expected to warm up as the week wears on.

On paper at least, the early draws on the women’s side are more lackluster than the men’s and don’t present as many intriguing betting options. For now, we’ll stick to the men’s side and throw in some women’s matches when things get more interesting in Round 2.

Arnaud Clement (+183) vs. Ivan Ljubicic (-203)

The Frenchman Clement will have the crowd on his side but it likely won’t be enough to top Ljubicic, the No. 7 seed in the tournament.

Ljubicic has won the last five matches between the two and now holds a 5-2 advantage in their meetings. They last met in Canada in 2006 on hardcourt, but Ljubicic’s wins over Clement have also come on clay and carpet.

Clement supporters will be happy to know Ljubicic hasn’t had the greatest clay season so far, advancing no further than the third round in any of his tournaments. That's probably why his odds are so reasonable for a Round 1 match. However, that should also mean he’ll be fresh for Paris and ready to make another run after a semifinals appearance here last year.

Pick: Ljubicic

Nicolas Mahut +925 vs. Richard Gasquet (-1125)

The crowd at Roland Garros could be a little confused about whom to cheer for when these two Frenchmen battle on Philipe Chartier court.

With the home soil factor cancelled out, the crowd would usually be tempted to lean in the direction of the underdog Mahut. However, Gasquet is battling blisters on his racket hand that could help him endear himself to the fans by gutting it out through the pain.

Gasquet told reporters this weekend that blisters were bothering him, but he wouldn’t let it affect his performance. That remains to be seen and it gives some value to the huge dog Mahut and makes him worth a tiny wager if your stomach can handle it.

So far it’s been a decent clay season for Gasquet with wins over some quality opponents like Ljubicic and a finals appearance in Estoril, Portugal where he lost to the in-form Novak Djokovic. Mahut hasn’t been quite as fortunate with only three victories in four clay court events this season.

Mahut is still in search of his first singles victory at Roland Garros, while Gasquet had his best performance two years ago when he advanced to the third round.

Surprisingly the two countrymen have never met in ATP play.

Pick: Mahut (but don't bet the farm)

Igoor Andreev (-167) vs. Andy Roddick (+157)

The French Open isn’t exactly A-Rod’s favorite grand slam. He only once has been able to poke his head past the second round (2001) and last year he was forced to retire in the third set of the first round after dropping the first two sets to Alberto Martin, ranked No. 68 at the time.

Though Roddick says he’d like to change his luck in Paris, his schedule would suggest otherwise. He has played in just two clay events leading up to Roland Garros – Rome and Austria - and fell in the third round in each.

The problem with clay for Roddick, which he explains a bit on his web site, isn’t so much that he’s bad on it. It’s more that when he’s playing badly on clay, he’s really bad and doesn’t have much hope of grinding out a win. The most recent proof is that both his clay losses last month were in straight sets to Gael Monfils and Juan Ignacio Chela.

I see Roddick getting past the first round this year though, because his game is the best all-round it has ever been. He’s moving around the court well and his backhand has greatly improved since Jimmy Connors came on to help coach him.

Roddick made a semifinals appearance earlier this year at the Aussie Open and has climbed to No. 3 in the rankings, so there is undisputed value in his first match.

The reasons why he’s such a considerable underdog are that Andreev loves clay and trains mostly on dirt in Spain. He also beat Roddick the last time they met, which was actually on Roddick’s favorite surface, hardcourt, at Indian Wells in 2006.

Andreev has played in eight clay court events this season so far and has advanced to the fourth and third rounds respectively in his only two appearances at Roland Garros.

Pick: Roddick

Raji