Derby Info

[Raji]

Ask the oddsmaker: Picking apart the Kentucky Derby field
Fri, May 4, 2007By Keith Glantz

Keith Glantz is a professional oddsmaker and handicapper. He has been setting some of the sharpest lines in the sports betting industry for over 25 years.

Question: What are your thoughts on this year’s Kentucky Derby?

Answer: Here’s my horse-by-horse analysis by post position with morning line odds in parentheses.

1. Sedgefield (50-1) – Not much respect for a horse that’s four of five in the money this year but his best race was on the Polyturf and he seems better suited for the grass.

2. Curlin (7-2) – This one never ran as a two-year-old and has only three lifetime starts. Of course he’s won all three so easily that he’s the morning-line favorite. Curlin is either going to win the public’s affection as did Barbaro or he’s just another that needs more seasoning. A win out of the 2-hole would be the real deal.

3. Zanjero (30-1) – Like Sedgefield, Zanjero’s best effort this year was on the Polyturf. Runs best when he comes from the back.

4. Storm in May (30-1) – Finished second by 10 ½ to Curlin in his last and has no Stakes wins. May be just a drizzle.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy (50-1) – Really can’t understand why he hasn’t run since March 31 and that effort won’t top many here.

6. Cowtown Cat (20-1) – Won the Gotham Stakes in New York and then took the Illinois Derby in his last two. While Cat is at the top of his game, that may not be enough to win here.

7. Street Sense (4-1) – The most consistent here with three wins, two seconds and two thirds, never out of the money. Wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off as the post-time favorite. Don’t forget that he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths as a two-year-old at this track last year.

8. Hard Spun (15-1) – Well, he’s won five of six and gained additional attention with that 57 3/5 five-furlong bullet workout here at Churchill on April 30. Will be up there with the first flight, but others will keep him honest.

9. Liquidity (30-1) – 5-2 in the Santa Anita Derby but finished fourth. He was just under 3-1 in the Louisiana Derby but faded to 6th. Was fortunate to just make it into the Derby. After his last two, he'll be fortunate to hit the board.

10. Teuflesberg (30-1) – Will try to steal this one but that’ll be quite a trick.

11. Bwana Bull (50-1) – No closing kick when stepping up in class in his last (Santa Anita Derby). Northern Cal competition more his style.

12. Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1) - Won’t be intimidated with his 3-1-1 record in Graded Stakes. Another that likes to be close to the leaders but has no quit in him. Must respect.

13. Sam P. (20-1) – While third in the Santa Anita Derby and second in the RB Lewis Stakes, Sam just doesn’t appear to have the speed to capture the Roses.

14. Scat Daddy (10-1) – Pletcher must think that Scat’s Florida Derby victory was enough to keep him from the competition since March 31. But one also can’t ignore his stretch run to capture the Fountain of Youth four weeks earlier also at Gulfstream. Major player.

15. Tiago (15-1) – When is the last time the Santa Anita Derby winner was 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby morning line? Well anyway, he was 29-1 at post when he rallied in the straightaway in Southern Cal. Still, he needs to top that effort to win in this one.

16. Circular Quay (8-1) - Top effort winning the Louisiana Derby but that was on March 10 and he hasn’t run since. While 1 ¼ miles after a seven-week layoff may be asking a bit too much, this one can’t be ignored.

17. Stormello (30-1) - Will be joining Cowtown Cat and Hard Spun on the front end and only shows tiring badly once, losing by 15 lengths to Street Sense in the Juvenile last year. Stormello may be able to hold on in your Supers but that’s about his best chance.

18. Any Given Saturday (12-1) – The only horse here that has 2 Beyer’s at 100 or better. May live up to his name as it seems his best is yet to come. Must respect.

19. Dominican (20-1) – This one has won three races in seven starts including the April 14 Blue Grass. Problem is that all three were on the Polyturf. If Dominican runs back to any dirt race, it won’t be enough.

20. Great Hunter (15-1) – Well, the 20-hole isn’t as bad as the 19, but that’s not saying too much. The problem here is that Hunter would merit serious consideration if he were a few post positions closer. Still, the price is right.

Selections:
1. Scat Daddy
2. Curlin
3. Any Given Saturday
4. Street Sense


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