UFC Preview and Picks

[Raji]

Mark Bocek (+380) vs Mac Danzig (-480)

The UFC has in the past always given the winner of the TUF series an easy first opponent. Mark Bocek is that guy. Bocek does possess strong grappling skills but not enough to offset the experience level of Mac Danzig. Watching the television series, Danzig ripped thru the field with ease. The scariest part about Danzig was that he was fighting above his natural weight on the show.

Taking Bocek at this price is enticing but not realistic. Danzig wins without breaking a sweat. Lock it up; lay the almost 5-1 odds on the vegan.

Pick: Danzig

Charles McCarthy (+275) vs Michael Bisping (-335)

I am not really sure why this fight is even being televised. Charles McCarthy hasn’t fought in nearly two years. His record doesn’t warrant being on one of the biggest UFC events to hit the airwaves. This event was sold out in mere hours, yet the powers that be have placed “The Chainsaw” into this event.

Michael “The Count” Bisping hasn’t really proved a lot after winning the TUF series. He finished a below-average fighter in his hometown in his debut and then followed up with two back-to-back poor performances.

I am going to go with the underdog in this one. With the + 275 price tag on McCarthy, I think oddsmakers see the mismatch, but don’t think the public will. McCarthy can capitalize on Bisping’s weak ground game. The drop in weight will affect “The Count” and add to my bankroll.

Pick: McCarthy

Nate Quarry (-300) vs Kalib Starnes (+220)

“Go to the ground. Takedown! Takedown!” That is what you will hear all night from the corner of Kalib Starnes. The last fights for both of these guys were pure action – a lot of blood, hard hitting and zero technical skill from either guy.

Starnes lost because of a huge cut in the middle of his forehead. Quarry won his fight by winning in the third round with a vicious left that put his opponent to sleep. If both of these animals come out swinging, Starnes will not be able to stand toe-to-toe with the “Rock”. Quarry has a solid chin and has only been knocked out by one opponent. Starnes needs to win or he will be sent packing from the UFC.

Starnes at +220 is a solid play because Quarry has yet to show his experience on the ground. Starnes is longer at 6-foot-3 and also more flexible, so look for a surprise submission that leaves the “Rock” backers wishing they read this article.

Pick: Starnes

Travis Lutter (+300) vs Rich Franklin (-380)

Styles make fights. That phrase is used over and over again, but it’s true. Any time you have two completely different styles of fighters, something or someone has to give. In this fight you have a so-called submission expert going against a striker. The reason I place the “so-called” tag on Lutter is because who has he submitted? On the other hand, you have the striker in Franklin who has fought, knocked out and even submitted a number of elite fighters in the UFC to date. There are some questions coming into this fight, but the one bettors should be asking is, “where is the head of the former middleweight champion at?”

Franklin is coming into this fight after losing his father, his title shot and major knee surgery. The latter doesn’t scare me as much as the first factor. Franklin’s father was at every major event, front row, supporting his son. Will that motivate “Ace” or bring him down? That’s a question only he can answer once the fight starts. Call me crazy, but I can see this fight ending up on the ground. Franklin has too many distractions and this is a perfect scenario for an upset. At the price tag of +300, don’t be a fool and pass up this gift. As long as Lutter makes weight without any problems, the bankroll has just ballooned.

Pick: Lutter

Matt Serra (+400) vs. Georges St. Pierre (-500)

Can lightning strike the same place – or in the case, Matt Serra – twice? GSP was overwhelmed and overcome with the spotlight that came with the title after his win against Matt Hughes. The “Rush” looked absolutely invincible in his last match against the All American, but there are still some doubts about his chances in this match. Matt Serra has said over and over recently during interviews that the pressure is on the hometown hero. It’s a familiar scenario for both these fighters since the last time they met St. Pierre was a huge 8-1 favorite.

St. Pierre has said he believes his mind and emotions are in a different state from their first meeting. He feels he is more focused and determined to prove that he is the true welterweight champion. Serra is no pushover and has gone the distance with a few of the UFC’s best. He shocked the world last year when he knocked out GSP in the first round. No one could have predicted that outcome. Yet the experts are all predicting an early-round walk-over by St. Pierre this time.

I don’t see that happening. This fight will be a cat and mouse show in the fist round with both fighters playing to the crowd and feeling each other out. The second round will go to Serra, as will the welterweight title. St. Pierre is fueled by emotions and this is the wrong venue for him to get a win. Matt “The Terra” Serra slips in a choke late in the second…

Pick: Serra

Raji