Odds to win the Masters

[Raji]

Frank Doyle, odds analyst with Sports Interaction, considers the difficulty of making book when one player is so very much better than the rest.



If Tiger Woods’ winning streak had continued at the WGC at Doral I would not like to think about making book for the Masters.



As it is, Sports Interaction is quoting Tiger at +110 to claim his fifth US Masters title. We do not see odds like this in a sports betting context very often, thank God. It’s the sort of price you expect to see if you’ve entered a Sherman tank in a Demolition Derby.



There are two reasons why the price is so short. The first is the public perception that Tiger Woods is playing golf at the level far above the rest of humanity. The perception that there will be two golf tournaments at Augusta this year, the one where Tiger plays against his own legend and place his history, and the one where Joe Schmoes fight it out for second.



The second reason, and the more worrying from a handicapping point of view, is that the public is completely correct. Tiger is that good. And most worryingly of all, the Augusta course is that one course in the world that is best suited to Tiger’s game. If Tiger phoned in an order for a course that would showcase his particular strengths, the result would be Augusta National.



This makes for an unhappy tournament for the bookie. We cut Tiger’s price as much as we dare – last week we had his odds at -133 but still the money comes in. If Tiger wins, we lose.



Equally though, the prices on all the other contenders are so fat that if someone like Els or Harrington or Ogilvy wins, which is well within their compass, we get stung on that as well. Or Zach Johnson – he’s defending champion and he’s 50-1.



Like everything that is bad news for the bookie, this is actually good news for the bettor, in a funny sort of way. It means that you have just one decision to make, really, and that is: will Tiger do it or won’t he? If you think he will, you fill your boots, on the basis that +110 on a winner is always better than +2500 on a loser.



On the other hand, if you like a run for your money you have the attractive prospect of whomever you pick being a big fat price, and worth considerably more lettuce on Sunday if he wins. That should actually be the case if his price weren’t artificially distorted by the Tiger Effect.



In the second instance you have to still make the correct pick of course. We might find it hard to make book in the Tiger era, but we’re not going to give it away either.



Other top favorites include:



Phil Mickelson +850

Vijay Singh +1800

Geoff Ogilvy +2500

Ernie Els +2500

Retief Goosen +2500

Padraig Harrington +2800

Adam Scott +3300

Justin Rose +4000

K.J. Choi +4000

Jim Furyk +4000

Luke Donald +5000

Steve Stricker +5000

Aaron Baddeley +5000

Henrik Stenson +6000

Sergio Garcia +6000

Mike Weir +6600

Stewart Cink +6600

Fred Couples +6600

Lee Westwood +7000

Zach Johnson +7000

Raji