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John Halverson +165 vs. Jorge Gurgel -205
This fight is on the card only for the hometown faithful at Nationwide Arena. These two fighters didn’t look impressive at all in their previous fights. Halverson was outmatched against Huerta and lasted only 19 seconds and Gurgel fought in the same arena on the same card as his training partner Rich “Ace” Franklin to a unanimous loss.
Pick: Despite the loss, Gurgel should take control of this fight with the crowd behind him and the fact his talent level far exceeds that of Halverson. Without a doubt Gurgel wins this fight by TKO-referee stoppage.
David Bielkheden +420 vs. Diego Sanchez -550
“The Nightmare” Diego Sanchez has lost his last two fights but the first loss was, in my mind, one of the worst displays of MMA action I’ve seen. His opponent, Koscheck, was just looking to play it safe and only did enough not to lose. The “Nightmare” will rebound from the only true loss (against Fitch) and go back to the basics that brought him to the top of the welterweight division, namely working the ground game.
Pick: Look for the Nightmare to win via submission but at this price, I’d stay away because this will hurt your bankroll if DB catches the reality series winner.
Dustin Hazelett +345 vs. Josh Koscheck -445
Write it down: this will be the upset of the night. This is an interesting matchup because the fan favorite here is “Kos” and the public doesn’t really know enough about Hazelett. Whenever that happens, there is always the making of an upset but and I have to say, I don’t think Koscheck is anything more then an average welterweight
Pick: This fight will go the distance and with the +345 price tag in favor of Hazelett, take the underdog because this could be the only gift of the night from the oddsmakers.
Luigi Fioravanti +135 vs. Luke Cummo -165
Hands, Hands, Hands… Look for this fight to go two rounds at most with both of these guys ready to throw a lot of heavy hands. Fioravanti can take some shots, but I think the experience and confidence that Luke Cummo is riding will be too much for Luigi to handle.
Pick: Don’t blink this one will be over via KO and Cummo takes it at -165. The price is right!
Jake O'Brien +285 vs. Andrei Arlovski -355
MMA fans, this could be the last time you see the “Mad Russian” fight in the UFC and unless you plan on going to the event in Ohio or maybe if the main event finishes fairly quickly, you are out of luck. The UFC made a move to place Arlovski on the undercard not because the other fights will be more exciting, but because Arlovski will not negotiate a new deal. The UFC tries to get deals done prior to the last fight expiring on a fighter’s contract.
Jake O’Brien is coming off a great win against Heath Herring which no one expected him to win but Herring had no answer for O’Brien’s takedowns and his strength. Could O’Brien pull off another upset against the former heavyweight champion? The answer is … not likely. Not because O’Brien isn’t in the same class as Arlovski, but because the injury that left O’Brien with stingers in his neck came at the wrong time and now against the wrong guy.
Pick: Arlovski, fighting for a new contract and for his image, will win this via referee stoppage. Don’t be afraid to lay the pipe on this one. OB is a terrible bet at that price.
Chris Wilson +500 vs. Jon Fitch -640
Who is John Fitch? Let me tell you: He’s the guy that is going to be the next in line to fight George St. Pierre once both fighters win their respective fights. Why? Because even though I think Fitch has decided to pick and choose his battles, he has chosen correctly the last seven times. With his last win against Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez, Fitch has proven that he can compete in the spotlight and has won when it counts. This fight should be a walk in the park for Fitch against a decent inexperienced UFC fighter.
Pick: Fitch wins by TKO, but is it worth it to lay that kind of wood (-640)? Yes, he can’t lose. And if you can parlay him, all the more reason to throw him into the mix.
Yushin Okami -240 vs. Evan Tanner +195
This fight should be a bore because Yushin Okami has that style that puts you to sleep. Okami likes to throw his weight and strength around and everyone who has gotten into the ring with this guy says they underestimated his strength as a middleweight. Evan Tanner hasn’t fought in almost two years so I feel that he will be gun-shy in the 1st and start of the 2nd rounds which will give Okami more confidence. Okami will win this fight but if there is one time you want to go to the bathroom during these fights it’s during this snoozefest.
Pick: If you have a weak heart or suffer from sweat-bet syndrome, do not take this match because it will go three rounds. I’ll take Okami by split decision, so Tanner will be back for more.
Alessio Sakara +130 vs. Chris Leben -160
Tattoos, tattoos and more tattoos is what you will see in this fight. These guys could be the spokesmen for Miami Ink. But aside from that, you will see one of these guys get knocked out in the first round. In fact, if it goes longer than Round 1, I will go out and get a tattoo.
All kidding aside, both of these fighters possess knockout power and for some odd reason they both like to stand toe-to-toe with their opponent. The last fight for Leben looked different, he was much leaner and crisp in his fundamentals, which was strange since he is a power puncher with a strong chin and a thick head. This kid likes to exchange but from what I saw the last fight I think he has realized that if he wants to survive in this sport, he will need to act more cautiously and use technique instead of just power.
The “Legionnaire” (when he gets older will regret getting that tattoo) has a reputation as a hard thrower but when I watched a majority of his fights I realized that’s all it is: a reputation.
Pick: Easy money. Sakara will get submitted in this one since everyone (including me) thinks that this fight will be won by the exchange of fists, but watching Leben in his last fight, he will win with technique via the choke.
Heath Herring +135 vs. Cheick Kongo -165
There was a lot expected of Heath Herring when he came into the UFC, but talk about a bust. Herring does possess some skill, but each time he steps into the octagon he looks worse and the bad news is that his opponent looks to be improving after each fight. I am not sold on Kongo because his ground game is absolutely horrendous and even though the guy is absolutely shredded and has maybe half an ounce of fat on his entire body, he can’t work from the bottom.
The only way Herring wins this fight is if he gets Kongo on the ground, but I don’t see that happening since for whatever reason, Herring, with his unorthodox stance, likes to exchange. That doesn’t bode well against a guy who has solid leg kicks and strong jabs.
Pick: The reach of Kongo will be the difference and the fact that Herring is a load will work against him if this fight should go the distance. Look for the trend of favorites to continue, so chalk it up for Kongo with the conditioning factor, leg strikes that will wear down Herring in the early rounds, and the confidence with just coming off a huge win against one of the elite fighters in the world.
Anderson Silva -165 vs. Dan Henderson +135
This is the match we have all been waiting for, including the owners and president of the UFC. “The Spider” and “Hendo”. This match is very intriguing because it’s a battle of two completely different styles of fighter.
Hendo proved that he could go blow-for-blow with the light heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and The Spider showed that former champion Rich “Ace” Franklin, even in front of his home crowd, could not answer the vicious knees of Silva’s strong Thai clinch.
The UFC owners wanted and needed Dan Henderson to move down in weight to give Anderson Silva a formidable opponent, but can he successfully make the transition? Is this the man to dethrone the one who has ripped through the middleweight division in less then two years time?
Quite simply, I don’t think he is. Hendo does have the power to put Silva on his back, but Silva proved he could submit a submission specialist when he pounded Travis Lutter with nasty elbows to the top of the head. Silva has also shown he isn’t fazed by fighting in “hostile territory” and displayed precise punching when he landed jab after jab and punch after punch in his UFC debut against Chris Leben.
This guy is a freak of nature. You only see this type of pure, naturally-gifted fighter in rare occurrences and guess what? Silva is the real deal. When Silva wins on Saturday again in hostile territory, you can put him in the same category as the Gracies, Couture, Shamrock, and all others that have built this sport up to its current level. This will be a great fight and probably the one and only time you will see Silva in some trouble, but Henderson doesn’t have enough to win against this machine. Silva will show the world on Saturday night that he belongs with the elite fighters of the MMA world.
Pick: Silva via stoppage in third round. This is the smartest wager of the night with the public always looking for the underdog story. If you believe the hype that Hendo is the one person that can beat Silva, you’re wrong.
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