Aussie Open Picks

[Raji]

We might see our first showers on Friday in Melbourne where there is a chance of drizzle and showers later in the day. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s with very little wind. Saturday is expecting showers, which could throw the schedule off through the weekend. Stamina could become a key factor if players are forced to play on back-to-back days to keep up with the schedule.

My record is now 6-4 after a 3-0 day yesterday. Unfortunately, the juice has me down 2.52 units. Time to do some catching up.

Jarkko Nieminen -110 vs. Mardy Fish +100

You know what you’re going to get from Nieminen. He’s a solid all-round player who won’t blow you away with any one aspect of his game, but he’s usually consistent and won’t beat himself.

Fish will need to continue to play the fantastic tennis he has shown us through two rounds. A big key will be keeping his first-serve percentage high because Nieminen is a great returner and is actually tied for the lead at the Aussie with 15 break points. The American, who has 13 break points of his own, has a more powerful serve than Nieminen and will need every bit of it to advance.

It should be noted that Nieminen hasn’t made it past the third round at the Australian Open before. Fish had his best showing last year when he made it to the quarterfinals.

Pick: Fish

Andy Roddick -500 vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber +450

The juice might look a little steep here, but Roddick at this price in the third round is pretty good by tennis standards. You might want to tack it onto a parlay if it’s too high for you to risk on its own.

Roddick had a pair of impressive wins to start things off in Melbourne and he is ripping his serve as well as ever. He has 23 aces through two rounds and his first-serve percentage has been better than 60 in each of his first two matches.

Roddick has beaten Kohlschreiber in both his past meetings with the German and I’m expecting the same result here.

Pick: Roddick

Jelena Jankovic -230 vs. Virginie Razzano +210

Jankovic beat Razzano last year on hard court in Toronto in the only meeting between these two players. She should be able to do it again if she can stay consistent throughout the match. That’s a big “if”.

Jankovic was awful in her first-round matchup against Tamira Paszek in a sloppy match that dragged on for more than three hours. Her serve was as bad as I’ve ever seen it and she committed 14 double faults. At times she looked like she was wishing the ball over the net – and probably was.

The one thing you can count on with Jankovic though, is her grit. She won’t quit on points and can keep you running all over the court when her game is on. She cleaned up her serve in her second-round match and reduced her unforced errors and I think she’s back on track now in Melbourne.

Pick: Jankovic

Serena Williams -500 vs. Victoria Azarenka +450

Same philosophy here as with the Roddick play. I think Serena is just going to keep getting better with each match and she looked like the defending champion in the second round in a two-set victory over Meng Yuan.

Williams may have been a tad nervous in her first match when she looked a little tight at times and made more errors than she would have liked. Her winners increased to 35 in the second round compared to 21 in the first round.

Azarenka is developing into a decent player, but at just 18 years old she will fall to the more experienced and more talented Serena.

Pick: Serena

Elena Dementieva -120 vs. Shahar Peer +110

I was a little surprised to see Dementieva favored in this one. Dementieva leads their career series 2-1, but Peer won the most recent meeting in 2006 at the French Open.

Dementieva has the more powerful serve, but Peer has more punch to her ground strokes. Peer will likely try to get the lanky Dementieva running all over the court in a match between two ladies who don’t like to move too far from the baseline.

Peer’s downfall, however, is her serve. For such a heavy hitter, her serve needs work and when she gets a rare ace, it almost always comes from placement rather than speed. Dementieva will get her breaks so Peer will need to stay patient and try to wear her opponent down.

I can see this one going three sets with Peer pulling it out in the end.

Pick: Peer


Raji