NCAA Bracket Info

[Raji]

Finding a tourney underdog with bite
Mon, Mar 12, 2007By Associated Press

INDIANAPOLIS -- Butler did it.

So did Santa Clara, Vermont, Bucknell and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. George Mason redefined the art of the NCAA tournament upset last season with its improbable Final Four run.

For those schools lacking exposure, the NCAA tournament is a chance to show a national audience they can break up tournament brackets from coast to coast.

One win creates a lifetime memory. Two wins makes them a national darling. Four wins puts them in the rarest of classes, mentioned with the likes of North Carolina, Duke, UCLA or Kansas - for one year anyway.

To those who live and breathe mid-major basketball, it takes more than luck.

''I call it the four Cs,'' George Mason coach Jim Larranaga said Monday. ''First, you have to have great cohesiveness and chemistry. Then you have to have a team that's totally committed to making the sacrifices necessary to win.''

''Third,'' he continued, ''you have to be able to communicate on the floor because if you don't, with the crowds, it's easy to get off on a different page. And, most important, is confidence. You have to believe in yourself and your teammates.''

What the George Masons of college basketball have demonstrated recently is that they will be more than a speed bump to the second round for those so-called power schools.

Remember Vermont and Bucknell? Or perhaps Hampton and Wisconsin-Milwaukee? Fans at Syracuse, Kansas, Iowa State and Alabama may never forget them.

This year's burning question: Who's next?

Start with experienced teams, winnow the field by finding those that have had success or near success on big stages, look for teams with balanced scoring. Then find teams that have solid guards and backcourt depth.

''You have to have good players, first,'' Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson said. ''Looking back when Santa Clara had Steve Nash, and you look at Arizona's guards. Who had the better player? College basketball is a guards game, and if Nash played in college now, he could play for any team.''

Sampson understands how close those cuts can be. At Oklahoma, in 2001, Sampson's fourth-seeded Sooners lost to 13th-seeded Indiana State in overtime. The next year, Oklahoma reached the Final Four in Atlanta.

Larranaga believes guard play and balanced scoring is critical to short-term success in the tournament. To continue advancing takes solid post players, too.

Teams with postseason experience and dominated by juniors and seniors tend to play better. Take 2003, when Notre Dame survived Wisconsin-Milwaukee's upset bid as the buzzer sounded. The loss helped the Panthers prepare for their next NCAA trip in 2005, and Bruce Pearl's team upset Alabama in the first round and Boston College in the second round that year before losing to eventual runner-up Illinois in the regional semifinals.

This year's field offers a handful of possibilities that fit the model.

Southern Illinois +4000
This is the sixth straight NCAA bid for fourth-seeded Southern Illinois, which reached the regional semifinals in 2002. The Salukis lost to West Virginia in the first round last year but have one of the nation's top defenses and good guards. If they shoot well, they could challenge anyone.

Butler +3500
Butler earned its highest seed ever, a No. 5 in the Midwest Regional. The Bulldogs, a regional semifinalist in 2003, are one of those experienced, guard-dominated teams that has already proved it can win in tourney play. Butler won the NIT Season Tip-Off title by beating Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga, then beat Kent State less than 24 hours after the championship game in Indianapolis.

''It's been a fun and magical year, and, at the same time, it's a chance to start anew,'' coach Todd Lickliter said.

Nevada +7000
Nevada, the No. 7 seed in South, has one of the nation's top inside players in forward Nick Fazekas and is making its fourth straight NCAA trip. It reached the regional semis in 2004, thanks in part to Fazekas, before a 5-point loss to eventual runner-up Georgia Tech. The Wolf Pack was ranked No. 10 last week before its loss in the Western Athletic Conference tournament.

Creighton +10000
Creighton, which faces Nevada on Friday, also could be dangerous. The Bluejays finished strong, beating Southern Illinois in the Missouri Valley Conference championship game and is making its seventh NCAA appearance since 1999 and expects to duplicate first-round wins over Louisville in 99 and Florida in 2002.

Winthrop +8000 (Field)
Winthrop, the Big South champion, moved up to No. 24 in last week's Top 25 and could follow the lead of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. A year ago, the Eagles nearly knocked off Tennessee in the first round, losing 63-61 on Chris Lofton's buzzer-beater. This year, the No. 11 seed in the Midwest, gets Notre Dame on Friday.

Old Dominion +8000 (Field)
And Larranaga thinks Old Dominion, which plays Butler on Thursday, looks a lot like his 2006 George Mason squad, including a loss in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament.

''We don't feel like we don't belong, but we don't feel like we're the Shrine Circus, either,'' coach Blaine Taylor said before his Monarchs got a No. 12 seed Sunday.

Selection committee chairman Gary Walters said Monday the panel that picks the teams doesn't take those factors into account when making decisions.

But if there's one team that could replicate George Mason run from last year, Larranaga has a choice.

''There is one team that had a phenomenal regular season and didn't win its conference tournament, and we didn't, either - and that's Southern Illinois,'' Larranaga said. ''Butler may be another, but they play Old Dominion and I always believe in my conference.''

Raji

[Raji]

It is finally that most wonderful time of the year, when bracket-mania takes over at the office and guys calling in sick can be found parked on barstools at the local watering holes all day long. It's the opening weekend of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, also known as March Madness, and it's a sports handicappers delight. At least until the first couple of final scores roll across the bottom of the TV screen.

How many different strategies are used to fill out brackets and handicap the games? Probably one for every person trying to win their pool, and maybe pick a few winners on the side. But one method that all "experts" must consider is how teams have performed in previous tournaments. So let's take a quick look back at last year's Big Dance to get a bit of an idea of how the first couple of rounds went.

In the first round of last year's NCAA tournament, favorites won 23 games outright and lost seven (two games were posted as pick 'ems). But the linesmakers did a good job of evening things out, as the chalk went exactly 15-15 against the spread. Teams that won in the first round went 24-8 ATS, while the over/unders went 13-19.

Then in the second round, favorites went 11-5 straight up but only 7-9 vs. the number. Outright winners went 12-4 ATS and the totals veered even further toward the unders, going 5-11.

So for the first four days of the tournament last year, favorites won 34 of the 46 games outright, but went just 22-24 against the spread. The teams that won games went 36-12 vs. the numbers, and 30 of the 48 games stayed below their posted totals.

Also in last year's first round, the higher seeds went 23-9 straight up, but only 15-17 against the spread. The biggest first-round upsets, according to the seedings, included 14 Northwestern State's victory over 3 Iowa, 13 Bradley over 4 Kansas, 12s Texas A&M and Montana over 5s Syracuse and Nevada, and 11s George Mason and UW-Milwaukee over 6s Michigan State and Oklahoma.

The biggest upsets in the first round last year according to the oddsmakers were Montana (+7) over Nevada and Bradley (+7) over Kansas.

And in the only first-round game last year in which the lower seed was the favorite, #10 North Carolina State (-2 ½) defeated #7 Cal 58-52.

This week, only two lower seeds are listed as favorites, and small ones at that. Michigan State, the 9 seed in the East regional, is one-point chalk over 8th-seeded Marquette, and Xavier, the 9 seed in the South, is a one-point favorite over 8th-seeded BYU.

The most common two-pick parlay combinations during the first two rounds of last year's tournament were the favorites and the under, and the underdogs and the under, each of which paid out in 14 of the first 48 games. Two-picks with the dogs and the over produced 10 winners, while the combination of the favorite and the over produced just eight winning tickets.

In the first round last year, eight teams were favored by 10 or more points. All eight of those teams, as might be expected, won their games outright - UCLA (-19) over Belmont, Duke (-24) over Southern, Ohio State (-10) over Davidson, Villanova (-19) over Monmouth, Memphis (-12) over Oral Roberts, Connecticut (-21) over Albany, North Carolina (-11) over Murray State and Texas (-15) over Penn. But only two of those big favorites, UCLA and Memphis, covered the spreads. The remaining six failed their financial backers.

In last year's second round, five teams were installed as chalk of -8 or more - Duke (-9) vs. George Washington, Boston College (-11) vs. Montana, UConn (-9) vs. Kentucky, West Virginia (-8) vs. Northwestern State and Memphis (-8) vs. Bucknell. Again, all five of these larger favorites won their games outright, and four of them covered the spread. So for the most part, the first-round Cinderellas had their carriages turned back into pumpkins by the end of the first weekend.


Raji

[Raji]

The Dean's List: The No.1 stunners
Tue, Mar 13, 2007By Jason Logan

With all the parity and upsets during the college basketball season, could this finally be the year a No. 16 seed does the unthinkable and upsets a No. 1?

Probably not, according to oddsmakers who have tagged the top seeds with an average pointspread of -25, making an opening-game shocker about as likely as me making rent with most of my paycheck tied up in bracket pools.

While no underdog will be making history, the fact there isn’t a unanimous No.1 team in the land begs the question, "which top seed will go out first?"

You really can’t argue with the selection committee’s choice of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio State and Kansas as the No.1 seeds. All have more than 25 wins and three of them have been ranked No.1 in the nation at some point in the season. However, they have all shown flaws over the course of the schedule, the type of flaws that can come back to haunt them if they happen to face the wrong type of team.

It’s tough to spot a chink in the Florida Gators’ armor after they walked through the SEC tournament, beating their three opponents by an average of almost 20 points per game. The defending champs are hitting tourney stride at just the right time, much like last year, but the only difference is that last year they weren’t walking around with that giant bullseye on their foreheads.

Teams will get pumped up to play the national champs as they continue to jersey-pop and annoy the hell out of us in interviews. Like Joakim Noah said when he interrupted Al Horford, “It’s ours against theirs, it doesn’t matter!”

Well bud, “theirs” might be good enough.

A possible second-round meeting with eight-seed Arizona could spell a rude awakening for the Gators. The Wildcats, who underachieved all season, are one of the few teams that can match Florida’s depth and talent. Lute Olson is still one of the best tournament time coaches and is out to prove something after almost missing the postseason for the first time in 24 seasons.

Kansas, the West bracket's No. 1 seed has been slow out of the blocks its last few games, almost costing them the Big 12 championship. They started out lax against Oklahoma in their second-round conference tourney game, leading by only two at half and allowed Kansas State to keep pace for most of the semifinal. The 22 points they spotted the Longhorns in the Big 12 final spoiled most people’s bets before the halfway mark of the first 20 minutes.

The Jayhawks can’t afford early power outages with the defensive beasts that lay in their bracket. A second-round run-in with either Villanova or Kentucky could make it difficult to climb out of an early hole and things don’t get any easier from there. Possible foes in Southern Illinois, Duke, Pitt, Indiana and UCLA are waiting outside of Chicago, all of which rank in the top 50 in defense and allow a combined average of only 60.64 points per game this season.

In what is shaping up to be the “Bracket of Death”, the North Carolina Tar Heels have been crowned Kings of the East Region because they are tailor-made for the grueling schedule of a deep tournament run. Roy Williams began building the ultimate NCAA machine back in exhibition play with All-American starters, an army of talented reserves, experienced coaching staff, and also had his lungs bionically enhanced. Well, maybe not that last one...

The youth of UNC’s roster is its only downfall. The Tar Heels have plenty of freshman and sophomore superstars but no proven veteran leader to pull them through the tournament. Against gritty, hard-working teams like possible second-round opponent, Michigan State, North Carolina can get impatient and frustrated and lose track of its game plan. We’ve seen what can happen to the Tar Heels when they are forced to play a different style of basketball; just look at the losses to North Carolina State and Virginia Tech.

Last but not least are the Ohio State Buckeyes, who despite finishing the regular season as No.1 in both the AP and Coaches polls, are most vulnerable to an early upset. Tagged with the top seed in the South Region after an impressive showing in the Big Ten tournament, OSU hasn’t played a tournament-quality opponent, besides Wisconsin, since getting scissor-kicked in the back of the head by Florida at Christmas time.

As dominantly as Greg Oden has played lately, bettors still have to remember this guy is a freshman, despite what that beard is saying. Putting the weight of the team on his back doesn’t look like much of a task if you’ve seen this behemoth carry two and three defenders with him on way to a rim-rattler, but Oden, as well as fellow freshmen Mike Conley and Daequan Cook, are playing in the biggest games of their lives and it’s an awful lot to ask of a couple kids who are probably too young to remember Clear Pepsi and the old, pointy lawn darts.

Run-ins with veteran squads like Virginia or Tennessee, which have beaten No.1 seed material this season, could be the Buckeyes’ undoing in the regionals. Two of Ohio State’s three losses this season came at the hands of fellow one-seeds, UNC and Florida. The other was to No. 2 seed Wisconsin - not saying much for OSU’s chances in later rounds.

NCAA diamonds in the rough

There is something about the NCAA tournament that causes some players to explode like a bottle of soda and a pack of Mentos. Last year’s Big Dance served as a platform for players like Tyrus Thomas and Jordan Farmar to jump to the pros earlier than projected and bettors can expect others to step up and lead their school deep into the tournament this season.

D.J. Augustin (Texas)
The other Texas freshman has played in the shadow of Kevin Durant all season, quietly averaging over 14 points and six assists while maturing into the Longhorns' floor leader. During the Big 12 tournament, he only turned the ball over five times (all against Kansas) while dishing out more than five assists per game. The 5-foot-11 point guard will benefit from all the defensive attention on Kevin Durant and burn up opponents if they give him space to shoot or drive.

Stephen Curry (Davidson)
Speaking of playing in Kevin Durant’s shadow, Stephen Curry’s efforts this season were under the radar with the media fixated on Texas’ freshman phenom. The 6-foot-1 guard finished second in the nation in freshman scoring (21.2 ppg) behind you-know-who and helped lead the Wildcats to a Southern Conference championship, despite being baby-faced enough to pitch in the Little League World Series.

Randal Falker (Southern Illinois)
Southern Illinois’ junior forward is a brute under the boards, averaging eight rebounds and two blocks a game. The 6-foot-7, 230-pounder is one of many veteran leaders on the Salukis roster as well as the team’s second-leading scorer. SUI has the talent and experience to go deep into the tournament and they can ride a player like Falker, who shot 60 percent from the field this season.

Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis)
The Tigers have to be the most inconspicuous No. 2 seed in the history of the NCAA tournament and Chris Douglas-Roberts is just as stealthy. Many are poo-pooing Memphis’ place in the tourney, pointing to the weakness of C-USA for their 30-3 (15-15-1 ATS) this season. I seem to think it has to do with Douglas-Roberts' 15.4 points per game and any continued success will be because of his tournament experience last year in which he was Coach John Calipari’s top reserve all the way to the Elite Eight.
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Raji

[Raji]

NCAA Tournament injury notes
Tue, Mar 13, 2007By Covers.com staff

Arkansas Razorbacks forward Charles Thomas left early in the first half of the Hogs’ game against Florida with a sprained ankle. The 6-foot-8 forward is the team’s third leading scorer and leading rebounder despite playing just 23.8 minutes per game. His status for Arkansas’ Round 1 game against the USC Trojans is unknown. The Razorbacks are a 1 ½-point underdog.

Kansas Jayhawks forward Darrell Arthur was walking gingerly Monday according to the Kansas City Star. Arthur received a knee to the pelvic bone early in the second half and was limited to just 12 minutes. He is expected to play for Kansas against the winner of Tuesday’s play-in game. Arthur is a key player off the bench for the Jayhawks, averaging 10.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and a team-high 1.4 blocks per game.

Prospects of Marquette Golden Eagles guard Jerel McNeal playing in Tuesday’s game against the Michigan State Spartans went out the window Tuesday night when it was reported that he will miss the entire tournament with a thumb injury. McNeal recently won the Big East Defensive Player of the Year award and is second on the team in scoring with 14.7 points per game. Marquette is a 1 ½-point underdog against MSU.

Starting guard Kyle Shiloh could miss the rest of the postseason for the Nevada Wolf Pack. Shiloh suffered a hamstring injury in Nevada’s March 8 game against Idaho and has missed the last four games. Nevada is 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread since Shiloh went down. Nevada is a 1-point favorite over the Creighton Blue Jays in Round 1.

Stanford Cardinal leading scorer Lawrence Hill received a negative x-ray on his back after leaving Thursday’s game against USC on crutches, according to The Mercury News. Hill will be ready to play in Stanford’s first-round game against the Louisville Cardinals, where Stanford is a 6-point underdog.

Villanova Wildcats guard Mike Nardi is the team’s third leading scorer, and more importantly, a senior leader on the floor. A sprain in his lower left leg limited him to just 13 minutes in Nova’s two conference tournament games and zero points. He is expected to see more time in the Wildcats’ first game against the Kentucky Wildcats after a bone scan on Tuesday came back negative. Villanova is a 1-point favorite.
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Raji

[patlives]

Thanks for all of the info, now I've got to go make a few changes to my brackets!