Saturday College Hoops

[Raji]

Louisville vs. North Carolina

Odds: UNC -5 1/2, O/U 155

Game time: 9:05 p.m. ET



Even if you only started following college hoops when the NCAA Tournament began, you know by now that North Carolina can put the ball in the basket.



The Tar Heels are the No. 2 scoring offense in the nation. Tyler Hansbrough is relentless in the paint. Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington can shoot the lights out from the perimeter. And the Heels scored more than 100 points in each of their first two games.



But what you might not know is that this team can play defense when it has to. The gritty, man-to-man, elbows-in-your-ribs-all-day kind of defense that kills an oppenent's will to win.



“I’d rather win in the 80s, 90s and 100s,” UNC coach Roy Williams said after the game, “but sometimes you have to win in the 50s and 60s.”



And so they did.



UNC won 69-47 Thursday night against a Washington State team that would prefer to change the shot clock to 45 seconds. The Heels made Washington State fight for everything it got, which wasn’t a heck of a lot. The Cougars were held to 20 percent three-point shooting and 31 percent field goal shooting.



That said, the play for this game might be on the total. Louisville has a lot of talent, but I’m not sure the Cards have the scoring power to run with UNC all day.



What they do have is great defense. They love to pressure full-court all game and they can throw different looks at you to keep you guessing.



Going back to Big East play, they haven’t allowed more than 62 points in regulation time in their last six games. I think their best bet at toppling UNC is to stick to that tough defense and try to squeak by these dangerous Tar Heels.



A good place to start is to look at Friday's game. The Cards got a good lesson in how to guard Hansbrough down low from Wazzu.



Aaron Baynes did a great job of standing tall without fouling and forcing Hansbrough to make the shots. The UNC junior managed only two points in the first half before his teammates helped him break the game open and he picked up 16 more in the second half.



But for 20 minutes, Hansbrough was frutstrated and missing everything. He even went 0-for-2 from the line late in the first half, which is something you rarely see from the guy who’s been to the stripe more times than any other player in UNC history.



Louisville big man and leading scorer David Padgett will likely be faced with the main task of stopping Hansbrough. That might leave him tired at the other end of the court where he tends to do some damage.



That means the Cards need scoring from other sources and fortunately, this bench goes deep. Eight players average at least six points per game and coach Rick Pitino works everyone into the game so much, it’s tough to keep track of who’s on the floor.



With a strong mix of forwards and guards, these squads match up very well against one another. I’d prefer to go with a play on the total because I think Louisville’s best shot at winning this one is to keep the score low.



But since we’re sticking to sides, it’s tough to go against the team on a 14-game winning streak.



Pick: Under

Raji

[Raji]

Xavier vs. UCLA
Odds: UCLA -6, O/U 129
Game time: 6:40 p.m. ET

If going deep in the NCAA Tournament is all about different players stepping up at the right times, consider Xavier deep.

B.J. Raymond played only 18 minutes and scored just eight points against West Virginia Thursday night, but scored all of them in the last bits of overtime, just when it looked like WVU was going to steal the game. That included the go-ahead trey with just over a minute to play and the game-icing triple that put Xavier up by four with just 28 seconds left.

Xavier picked up the 79-75 win and it’s now covered the spread in all three tournament games and played over the total in each of them as well.

So why the against the spread success and over cash?

It’s that different players thing I mentioned.

In Round 1, it was Derrick Brown. Round 2 it was C.J. Anderson. In the Sweet 16 it was Josh Duncan’s 26 points and incredible defensive play, along with the clutch shots from Raymond. And all the while, Drew Lavender, the niftiest ball handler in the tournament, has been the glue keeping it all together.

On any night, one of six or seven players can put up double digits for Xavier and most of them can hit the trey. That explains the three overs.

But it’s the tough man-to-man defense that is the real key behind the covers. Xavier doesn’t give up many good looks on defense. They are fast, tenacious, and it’s difficult to fool them on screens and switches. Down low, their help defense has been sensational, which makes it so tough to get to the rim for easy buckets.

Against UCLA, they’ll face a challenge that no team can really prepare for. Super teen and Pac-10 player of the year, Kevin Love, will give any team fits down low at both ends of the floor - count on that.

He has 68 points, 34 rebounds and 16 blocks through three rounds and those are just the stats. The 7-footer is even more unbelievable when you see him play, complete with a fade-away jumper that’s so sweet it gives you cavities just watching.

If Xavier can keep up that tough help defense and double-teaming down low, it may have a shot at limiting him. I don’t really think so, but maybe.

But the Musketeers are athletic through the lineup and what they lack in size in some spots, they make up for in agility and speed. I think UCLA will need key points from other sources like they got in the game against A&M when Darren Collison went 5-of-8 from downtown and scored 19.

I don’t think UCLA can afford the lapses it’s had in the past two games - which have to be driving Bruins bettors bananas. They blew the cover against Western Kentucky by falling asleep in the second half for a period and allowing them to claw back to within six points. They also had a stinker of a first half against A&M and nearly watched moneyline bets get flushed down the toilet in a 51-49 victory as 9 1/2-point faves.

The defense has been tough for the most part though, and I think oddsmakers got it right by setting the total low for this Elite Eight affair.

Over bettors were lucky the game went to overtime to jump the 137 points in the Xavier game on Thursday, so don’t be fooled by the result there. The Musketeers can slow the game down when it’s close and use all of the game clock to get the look they like. I think we’ll see a bunch of that against a UCLA team that allowed a measly 78 points through the first two rounds.

This is going to be a tight game. UCLA will have the best player on the court, but it’s Xavier’s depth and athleticism that should concern Bruins bettors.

Xavier needs to be better than UCLA from beyond the arc, and if we see that happen, we might see a jaw-dropping upset here.

Pick: Xavier +6

Raji