Round Two info

[Raji]

There’s certainly nothing wrong with the other five rounds of the NCAA Tournament. But in my opinion, the single best round to bet is Round 2, on the Saturday and Sunday of the opening weekend.
The first round offers the most games to bet on, with fully half of the tournament’s games taking place on the opening Thursday and Friday of action. The non-stop wall-to-wall action makes the first two days of the tourney such an amazing event here in Las Vegas, with the sportsbooks packed from 7 a.m. (gotta hold your seats!) until the final game concludes around 10 o’clock at night.

But there are some drawbacks – minor drawbacks, but drawbacks nonetheless - to the first round for bettors. First, you get too many mismatches; games that are difficult to bet because of the vastly different skill set of the two teams involved. Very few 14, 15 and 16 seeds are capable of hanging with 1, 2 and 3 seeds. There are a dozen games in the opening round with double digit pointspreads, not my preferred wagering price range.

And many of those games involve teams that haven’t played more than a couple of ‘lined’ games all year. Even sharp bettors have difficulty correctly valuing the Belmont’s and Texas-Arlington’s of the world. I can’t tell you whether Maryland-Baltimore County is capable of hanging with Georgetown, because I haven’t seen the Retrievers play, nor do I have any relevant history about how they play against elite level foes.

The double digit pointspreads aren’t a problem in themselves, but they aren’t my preferred type of game to wager on. You’ll often see the superior team take a comfortable lead and then coast thereafter, leaving the pointspread outcome in doubt until the final few minutes of play, making it something of a crapshoot. This is especially the case with the larger pointspreads of -20 or higher.

There’s one other minor problem with the opening round – the lines have a full three or four days to settle into place. The oddsmakers have ample time to come up with solid numbers for sides, totals and first half wagers. Handicappers, sharp and square alike, have ample time to bet those numbers into shape. Whatever bargains might have been out there on Monday morning are rarely available on Friday before tip-off.

It’s a similar story for Round 3, where the lines again have nearly a full week to settle, hammered into place by the wiseguys and the general public alike. In addition, by the Sweet 16, we don’t even have many games to bet on – four games on Thursday night, four games on Friday night, less than 1/20th of what we’ll find on the average Saturday college basketball card. The games are great, the action is good, but there’s simply not as many good bets to be found with only eight games.

That problem continues to compound as we reach the Elite Eight, the Final Four and then the Championship Game. Again, it’s fantastic basketball, very entertaining, played at the highest level that college hoops has to offer. And I will find good bets to be made during these rounds, just not as many as I’ll find earlier in the tournament. The problem with the last three rounds is very simple – not enough volume.

Again, let me make this perfectly clear: Rounds 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the Big Dance offer plenty of opportunity – it’s not like the betting marketplace suddenly becomes totally efficient, wiping away all our value with these ballgames. But, in my opinion, the very best opportunities take place in Round 2, this coming weekend.

In Round 2, we get 16 competitive games. Barring a shocking first round upset, we won’t see a pointspread higher than 15 or so, putting every single game in my preferred price point betting range. And 16 games seems to be the perfect amount to be able to concentrate on each one, as opposed to the dizzying flurry of Round 1. That gives us great halftime betting opportunities as well.

In Round 2, the betting marketplace doesn’t get the same chance to settle. The lines go up within minutes of the matchups being set, and the betting public is still concentrating on the current games going on. You’ll consistently see slightly weaker numbers in the second round, resulting in some outstanding betting opportunities.

In Round 2, you get massive over-reactions to Round 1 performances. If a top notch team looked sluggish against a lesser foe, you’ll often get a great price on them against a team that looked good in the first round. With teams that you haven’t seen much, you’ll get a good chance to assess how they can match up with their Round 2 foe. And, of course, you can sometimes find a vastly undervalued team or two playing out of their minds, with enormous momentum that can carry them forward.

I personally find more bets to be made, and greater value with those bets in the second round of the tourney. I put out six guaranteed plays for the 32 first round games, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if I find more than six wagers to recommend to my clients among the 16 games in the second round of the Big Dance.

Raji

[Raji]

Notre Dame vs. Washington State (-2, 133 ½)

Game time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Washington State had a scare Thursday when it found itself tied with Winthrop 29-29 at the half. Winthrop was smaller and less talented, but due to turnovers, it managed to keep the game close.

Wazzou cleaned that up in the second half when the Cougars took over about halfway through that period. The key here is Wazzou started slowing down the play and executing. When the Cougs are at their best, they love to use all of the clock and hit their shots in the last few seconds of the 35.

Wazzou can hit the three ball or work the ball in low on the post with Aron Baynes, who will be a tough matchup. Baynes had 19 against Winthrop along with eight boards.

It could be a battle of wills with the Irish because they love to jack up the score and get into high tempo affairs. Luke Harangody is always a problem in the paint and just about everybody on Notre Dame can shoot the three-pointer.

Notre Dame played well to get by George Mason. Unlike many of the other mid-majors, George Mason doesn’t lack a ton of size and had the talent to hang with some of the bigger schools if it played well. Unfortunately for George Mason, it ran into some cold shooting against a Notre Dame squad that was playing unusually tough defense.

This is a tough matchup to call and could come down to the wire. If Washington State can dictate the pace early, I like its chances. The key for Notre Dame is to hit the three-ball early and try to build to get WSU out of its slower-paced, half-court comfort zone.

Pick: Notre Dame +2



Marquette vs. Stanford (-2 ½, 132 ½)

Game time: 6:45 p.m. ET

Hopefully Stanford enjoyed its game in Round 1 against Cornell. Judging by the way the Cardinal kept celebrating dunks despite a 20-plus point lead, I think they did.

It won’t be as fun for Stanford from here on in after a game against the Ivy League school that looked like NBAers playing middle school kids. Stanford just had way too much, including size, for Cornell.

If the Cardinal don’t forget about that game, they could get stung by Marquette.

Marquette doesn’t have the size that Stanford has with its seven-footers like the Lopez twins, yet somehow the Golden Eagles are a great offensive rebounding team. They always seem to be in the right position and frustrate you madly with put-back points.

The Eagles play great help defense and do a formidable job of limiting bigger opponents in the paint by double and triple teaming. They also like to switch up looks on defense to keep you on your toes.

The other thing Marquette can do is hit the trey from all over the floor if you let it. Guard play will be huge for Stanford for this reason and also so it can hang with Marquette’s transition game. Jerel McNeal leads the way as one of four Golden Eagles who average double digits in points per game.

Pick: Stanford -2 ½



UNLV vs. Kansas (-13 ½, 136)

Game time: 6:50 p.m. ET



This is a matchup of two teams who rolled in the first round and it could be a tougher matchup than you think.

The No. 1 seed Kansas, dusted off Portland State, though the Jayhawks kept it close enough to the 22-point spread in the second half to keep Kansas bettors nervous.

They’ll now face a UNLV squad that lives up to its Runnin’ Rebels name if its first game is any indicator. The Rebs loved grabbing the ball off defensive boards and racing up floor like their shoes are on fire. They caught a speedy Kent State team on its heals more than once and jumped out to a 31-10 lead at the half.

Wink Adams might just be one of the best point guards in the tournament. He can dish with the best of them, score with both hands and his ball control makes UNLV a dangerous squad for the potential upset. He scored 17 against Kent State.

The Rebs won’t have the size advantage they had over Kent State on Saturday, however. They had way too many uncontested rebounds and they were fortunate a nervous Kent State squad came out shooting blanks at 20 percent on field goals and 0-for-7 on three-pointers.

Kansas, on the other hand, shot the lights out against Portland State with over 50 percent field goal shooting and 12-of-25 three-point shooting.

The Jayhawks jumped to the lead early and were able to use plenty of subs to stay fresh. By now you know about Joe Crawford, Mario Chalmers, Darrel Arthur and the rest of this team’s talent so I won’t go into too much more detail.

Pick: UNLV +13 ½



Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State (+2 ½, 131 ½)

Game time: 9:10 p.m. ET

Pitt continued where it left off from the Big East tournament, winning and covering another spread. This time, however, the Panthers did it against a much less talented Oral Roberts team that didn’t play with a whole lot of heart.

Levance Fields was fantastic for Pitt once again, controlling the offense with great playmaking and chipping in with 23 points and seven assists. Pitt can run the floor and is comfortable playing the inside game or the outside game, so the Panthers will be tough.

The biggest improvement from Pitt lately is its defense. The Panthers are making it tough for opponents to score easy buckets on them and when you miss, you have to deal with Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and some decent rebounding guards on the glass. There is a reason Bob Knight chose these guys to win it all.

Michigan State easily handled Temple, but the Owls were a mismatched team. They looked nervous and confused early on as the Spartans switched constantly on defense and Temple clanked one three-pointer after another.

Sparty used its size advantage at both ends of the floor, using screens and rolls to create easy buckets. They won’t have that luxury against a much bigger and more composed Pitt squad that can play far better man-to-man defense.

A big concern here for Michigan State is one that coach Tom Izzo had coming into the tourney: inconsistency.

The Spartans started the game slowly, resulting in a low-scoring first half that played under. They also had an ugly stretch of sloppy play in the second half in which they kept coughing up the ball and allowed Temple to dream of hopes of a comeback before Izzo called a timeout and MSU regrouped.

Pitt plays a full 40 minutes and has talent off the bench, so Michigan State can’t afford the same letdowns against this Big East opponent.

Pick: Pittsburgh -2 ½



Texas A&M vs. UCLA (-10 ½, 125)

Game time: 9:15 p.m. ET

A&M was the first lower seed of the tournament to beat a higher seed when it nipped BYU 67-65. The Aggies played a tough game though and squeaked it out at the end, so they could be tired on Saturday.

Josh Carter had his biggest game of the season with 26 points and Bryan Davis and Joseph Jones had huge games in the paint. Davis and Jones will need to be just as sharp Saturday because UCLA has all kinds of size.

UCLA made quick work of 16-seed Mississippi Valley State in the first round in a 70-29 win. The most impressive number might be the Bruins’ 20 assists in that game, which shows you the depth this team has. The Bruins are a talent-loaded team with super freshman Kevin Love leading the way.

Everywhere you turn the Pac-10 champions are tough to beat on the floor.

Pick: Texas A&M +10 1/2

Raji

[Raji]

WVU vs. Duke (-3 ½, 147)

Game time: 2:10 p.m.


When Gerald Henderson sliced through the lane and dropped a layup with 11 seconds to go against Belmont, Dukie lovers everywhere breathed a sigh of relief while the Cinderella lovers of the world sagged in disappointment.

We nearly had a monstrous upset that would go down in history but even the support of country star Vince Gill couldn’t help these boys from Tennessee.

Belmont put up a fearless effort against the 2-seeded Blue Devils and made timely threes to keep this one close. It was not to be, though if Duke doesn’t get its three-point shooting going, it might not last past the second round.

Not only did Duke go 6-for-21 from downtown, but there was another big concern: the Blue Devils ran out of gas at the end of this game. They started making bad turnovers and shots were falling short of the rim due to tired legs. It also showed on defense when Alex Renfroe repeatedly marched through the lane and made shots.

West Virginia is a high scoring squad that can hurt you with the three-ball if you can’t respond. The Mountaineers finally had someone other than Joe Alexander step up against Arizona. Alex Ruoff scored 21 and Da’Sean Butler had 19.

West Virginia should see more pressure on the outside from Duke, but I have to wonder for how long if those legs get tired again in the second half.

Pick: Duke -3 ½

Kansas State vs. Wisconsin (-4 ½, 131)

Game time: 4:20 p.m.



Kansas State is going to be a tough team to beat. The Wildcats showed that in their win over USC Thursday.

They are a tough rebounding team at both ends of the floor and they are full of talent with guys like Michael Beasley. Bill Walker also stepped up for the Cats in the first half especially while Beasley was being closely guarded. Walker finished with 22 and Beasley had 23.

From the get-go it looked like K-State wanted this one more than USC. They were on the floor for balls, stealing offensive rebounds and playing intense defense. USC couldn’t match the tenacity and it never really felt like the Trojans threatened.

Wisconsin is a better defensive team and unlike USC, it doesn’t rank worst in its conference in offensive boards. The Badgers started slowly in their Round 1 matchup against CS Fullerton, but regrouped in the second half to become the tough-nosed defensive squad we’ve seen all season.

This should be a great matchup with two squads playing tight defense right now.

Pick: Kansas State +4 ½



Purdue vs. Xavier (-3, 130)

Game time: 4:40 p.m. ET



Even though Xavier beat Georgia by 11 points, don’t let the score fool you. The Musketeers had to claw from behind in the second half and they only extended the lead to double digits at the end of the game on garbage time free throws.

They could show signs of tired legs against Purdue. The refs let these teams play and Georgia was a gritty opponent that made Xavier dive all over the floor for loose balls and play tough defense. The Musketeers had to earn everything they got.

Xavier is an athletic team inside and it has a speedy transition game where the club loves to grab rebounds off defensive boards and race you up floor for a bucket. Purdue should match up well with the Musketeers there, but Xavier poses some other problems.

Josh Duncan is a 6-foot-9 forward with great dribbling and shooting skills who is painfully tough to guard. Burell is also a force on defense as the A-10 defensive player of the year and anchors a speedy defense that can close on you in a hurry.

If you’re thinking this young Purdue squad might be intimidated though, forget it. The Boilers looked more like a senior-laden team than the one that started four freshmen in its opener against Baylor.

Purdue came out firing, shooting 50 percent in the first half and it had Baylor scrambling. The Boilers were scoring all over the court, nailing treys and beating Baylor inside.

The biggest difference against Xavier though, will be its size. Baylor is a guard-heavy team that Purdue clearly overmatched in the paint and in overall size. Xavier doesn’t give up that edge and Purdue won’t enjoy many easy deuces inside nor the advantage on the boards it had against Baylor.

The Boilers might have the advantage when it comes to freshness. They jumped out to a huge lead on the Bears early and were able to sub in plenty throughout the game to keep legs fresh.
They’ll need those legs on defense against Xavier. A big key will be not allowing Xavier to get into a run-and-gun situation.

In the Musketeers’ two losses to St. Joe’s recently, both were low-scoring affairs. Georgia also played fantastic D against Xavier in the first half in the Round 1 matchup when the Dawgs led by double digits at the half.

Pick: Xavier

Raji