ACC Preview and Picks

[Raji]

The ACC men’s basketball tournament runs Thursday through Sunday in Charlotte, N.C., with all games being played on the home floor of the Charlotte Bobcats. All 12 ACC teams are in, with the top-four seeds - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson and Virginia Tech - getting a first-round bye.



For the other eight teams, that means they’ll need to win four consecutive games to win the tournament - no easy task. Let’s take a closer look at the teams (listed according to their seeding):




No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels

Odds to win: +100



UNC earned the No. 1 seed after winning at Duke on Saturday night. The Tar Heels are the complete package: they get excellent point-guard play (Ty Lawson), great perimeter shooting (Wayne Ellington), a monster inside game (Tyler Hansbrough), good team defense, and they hit their free throws (76.1 percent). They only have two losses this year, to Maryland and Duke at home in conference play. The obvious team to beat, but they were only 3-4 ATS as a road favorite in conference play.



No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

Odds to win: +200



The team everybody loves to hate just keeps winning. The Dukies have been ultra-impressive this year, considering just one starter is a senior. Although all five starters average double-digits in scoring, the Blue Devils’ biggest strength is on defense: they’re No. 2 in conference efficiency. In conference play, it’s been a tale of two seasons for Duke. The Blue Devils went 8-0-1 ATS over their first nine games, but 1-6-1 to the spread since. They can win the ACC, but their youth and lack of an inside game might prevent it.



No. 3 Clemson Tigers

Odds to win: +500



Clemson’s fast non-conference starts have historically tailed off once conference play begins. But this season, the Tigers haven’t faded as much as in previous years, going a solid 10-6 SU in ACC games. The Tigers have the ability to beat both top seeds, but they could also lose to a lower-tier team -- you never know what kind of performance you’re going to get. Clemson is also the worst free-throw shooting team in the ACC (59.1 percent), which doesn’t help.



No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies

Odds to win: +800



At 18-12 SU and squarely on the bubble, Tech will be playing for an NCAA bid. The Hokies need to win a couple of games, but it won’t be easy. Believe it or not, they have the best defense in the conference, according to efficiency numbers. But they also have the conference’s worst offense. That means they’ll be in lower-scoring games, which usually helps in tournament games. Their defense may get them past their quarterfinal game, but don’t expect much after that.



No. 5 Miami Hurricanes

Odds to win: +1200



The Hurricanes are quietly having a good season at 21-9 SU, but eight of those losses have come in conference play with six of them on the road. Asking the ’Canes to win four straight here is asking too much. Miami-Fla is also looking for an NCAA bid, but it needs a better team effort. Junior guard Jack McClinton is the only starter averaging more than 10 points per game – that’s the main reason Miami has been held to 70 points or less 12 times this season. The Hurricanes could still get to the semis, but further than that is unlikely.



No. 6 Maryland Terrapins

Odds to win: +1500



After looking like a sure-fire NCAA tournament team, Maryland has tanked over its last seven games. The Terrapins have gone 2-5 SU, while covering just one point spread. But this team is capable: it did win tough road games in North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Gary Williams will have to do one heck of a coaching job over the next few days to get this group back on track. The Terrapins need a good showing to get an NCAA bid, and their road to the semifinals is not all that difficult.



No. 7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Odds to win: +1500



This team is erratic offensively. The Yellow Jackets take a ton of bad shots, but they’ve been in a nice groove lately. They’ve scored 74 points or more, while winning and covering three of their last four games. Two of the wins came against Clemson and Wake Forest, so the Yellow Jackets should not be overlooked. They own the best perimeter defense in the ACC, holding opponents to just 29 percent. That will allow them to hang around with the better teams. It’s no surprise that they are 10-6 ATS as an underdog this year. If they survive Round 1, Tech will lose to Duke in Round 2.



No. 8 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Odds to win: +3000



This could be the sleeper team in this tournament. The Demon Deacons are young, and they’ve certainly taken their lumps this year. But they are extremely talented and should get by the first round, which will pit them against UNC. Their free-throw shooting needs improvement (66 percent); it’s cost them many close games. Of their 12 overall losses, Wake has lost eight times by eight points or less. Wake Forest could make some noise, but getting by UNC in the second round will be tough.



No. 9 Florida State Seminoles

Odds to win: +3000



Another middle-of-the-road ACC team coming into the tournament with some confidence. The Seminoles are 4-1 SU their last 5 games (3-1-1 ATS), but they get a bad draw with Wake Forest. Wake swept the two meetings this year while shooting 50% from the floor and from behind the arc. Florida State’s offense is next to last in the conference in efficiency and dead last in assists. The Seminoles simply cannot match points with the higher-scoring teams, and most likely will be gone after one game.



No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers

Odds to win: +2500



As Sean Singletary goes, Virginia goes. Singletary is a one-man wrecking crew, averaging almost 20 points per game. But he doesn’t get much help from his teammates. And in bad Singletary games, this team has virtually no chance of winning. The Cavaliers have won four of their last six games, while covering five of those. Expect a close game with Georgia Tech in the first round, as one game went to overtime and the other was decided by a bucket earlier this season.



No. 11 Boston College Eagles

Odds to win: +6000



Aside from Tyrese Rice, Eagles head coach Al Skinner doesn’t have much to work with. BC enters this tournament on a massive slide having lost 14 of its last 17 games - including six straight. The Eagles only won a single road conference game, and that was back in December at Maryland. Guess that’s a good thing, because they’ll face Maryland in the first round. Even if BC gets past Maryland, next up would be Clemson, which beat the Eagles by 22 points earlier this season.



No. 12 N.C. State Wolfpack

Odds to win: +5000



Losers of eight straight, NC State has little hope of turning things around and making a run in this tournament. The Wolfpack plays no defense, and they’ve allowed 79.5 points per game over their current losing streak. They shoot the long ball well, with the best three-point attack in the conference (39.7 percent). But they are also the league’s worst perimeter defense, allowing 41.7 percent from three-point land. One and done for the Pack.



Overall, this should be another competitive ACC tournament. In the end, the top teams will again prevail, which means a third meeting this season between North Carolina and Duke, with the Tar Heels emerging as ACC champions.



Raji