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Join Date: Jan 2006
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Bobby Maxwell
Even without much hope of an NCAA tourney bid, the Cavaliers have been playing some pretty good basketball down the stretch here. So let's go with them to get the best of Maryland in this regular-season finale for both squads.
Virginia has won three of its last five but got drilled by Duke on Wednesday 86-70 as a 6 1/2-point underdog at home. Prior to the Duke game, they went to Georgia Tech and won 76-74 as a 4 1/2-point 'dog and scored a blowout home win over N.C. State, 78-60 as a 5 1/2-point favorite.
Maryland has dropped three of its last four SU and ATS and lost to Clemson a week ago 73-70 as a one-point 'dog. Last year when these two squared off in Virginia, the Cavaliers got a 103-91 victory as one-point favorites.
These teams have had opposite ends to their season and while neither one will probably get into the Big Dance, Virginia has had more fight down the stretch. Let's lay the small chalk and play Virginia in this one.
4♦ VIRGINIA
DAVE COKIN
The final results aren't in yet, but early returns are indicating that the Suns-Heat deal that brought Shaq to the desert is on its way to being a complete bust for Phoenix. Not only are they losing, it looks to me like their offense is not all out of synch and they appear to be losing confidence. The Suns were absolutely blown out in the fourth quarter of their Friday home loss to Utah. The Spurs also dropped one Friday at Denver, but the defending champs have been razor sharp of late and I like San Antonio's chances here.
Will Cover
Ohio State/Michigan State UNDER the TOTAL. 1pm EST
How low can this one go as the Spartans of MSU head South to take on the Buckeyes who are coming off a huge win over Purdue and need another one to secure a trip to the Big Dance. Defense is the name of the game in this contest as Michigan State has trouble scoring on the Big Ten road, averaging a paltry 53 PPG in their last three away losses in conference play. Ohio State's defense leads the Big 10 in scoring defense and will put the hammer down on the MSU offense. Sparty has already clinched a ticket to the Dance, so Bucks have all the motivation in their favor as they need this one badly and win it with defense
JEFF BENTON
For Sunday, we'll take a look at some conference tournament action as we head out west and play Gonzaga minus the big number against Santa Clara.
Here's the bottom line with this selection: If Santa Clara can't compete against Gonzaga when the Bulldogs had virtually nothing to play for and were in a major letodwn, how are the Broncos going to stay close tonight with Gonzaga, which is fully rested, fully focused and red hot I mean, on Monday, I used Santa Clara as my Best Bet (10 Dime), as the Broncos were catching hefty double digits, the logic being that Gonzaga had all but wrapped up its eighth straight West Coast Conference title and coach Mark Few would rest his starters late in the game to preserve them for this tournament. So what happened? The Bulldogs went out and romped by 34 points!
Granted, this game is being played on a neutral court (University of San Diego), but does that REALLY make that much of a difference? Doubt it, not when Santa Clara had to gut out a 51-50 win over San Francisco last night to keep its season alive while the Zags rested courtesy of an automatic bye.
In the end, I look for Gonzaga, which has won seven in a row (6-1 ATS) and went 13-1 in the WCC this year, to wear down the Broncos in the second half, and even if Mark Few pulls his starters early in anticipation of playing in tomorrow's tourney final, I still envision the Zags having a comfortable enough lead to seal the backdoor. Lay it with the 22nd-ranked Bulldogs.
(Based on a 1♦ to 10♦ rating system)
5♦ GONZAGA
TONY WESTON
Even though the Spurs looked a little sluggish at times against the Denver Nuggets on Friday, consider that San Antonio had just played at home the night before and was working on an 11-game winning streak SU.
San Antonio now comes into this game against the Suns 6-5-1 ATS its last 12 games.
However, working the Spurs favor is the fact that the Phoenix Suns may now be the worst team in the NBA. The Suns held a 9-point lead against the Jazz through three quarters on Friday before allowing 41 in the fourth and losing 126-118 as 5 1/2 point favorites.
Phoenix is only 1-4 SU and ATS its last five games and is 3-6 ATS and SU its last nine.
These two have played each other twice so far this year with the road team winning both matchups SU and ATS.
That trend will continue as the Spurs will beat up the Suns and add to Phoenix?s woes.
Take San Antonio on the road
3♦ SPURS (1♦ to 5♦ Scale)
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(17) Michigan State (24-6, 11-13-2 ATS) at Ohio State (18-12, 13-13 ATS)
Ohio State (9-8, 8-9 ATS in the Big Ten) snapped a four-game losing streak with an 80-77 overtime victory over Purdue on Tuesday, barely cashing as 2?-point favorites. The Buckeyes, who are looking to boost their NCAA Tournament resume, are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall, and they have been outscored by an average of six points per game (72-66) over their last five contests.
Michigan State (12-5, 6-11 ATS in the Big Ten) has won four of five (3-2 ATS) following Thursday's 59-51 road victory at Illinois as a two-point chalk. The win snapped a four-game SU and ATS road losing skid for the Spartans, who are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Big Ten contests dating to last season.
Michigan State took the first meeting between these two on Jan. 15, prevailing 66-60 but failing to cash as 8'point favorites back, snapping a three-game losing streak (1-2 ATS) to the Buckeyes. The road team and the underdog is on a 5-0 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the Spartans have cashed in five straight visits to Columbus. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series clashes
The Buckeyes are 6-2 at home against Big Ten foes but 3-5 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in the last four. They've also failed to cash in four straight Sunday outings.
The under is on runs of 7-3 for Ohio State overall, 14-3 for the Buckeyes on Sundays, 17-8-1 for the Spartans on the road and 2-0 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Florida (21-9, 11-10 ATS) at Kentucky (17-11, 13-11-1)
Florida (8-7 SU and ATS in the SEC) is slumping at the wrong time, having lost four of its last six and six of its last nine, going 2-7 ATS during this stretch. Last week, the Gators dropped a pair of SEC home games to Mississippi State (68-59 as 3 '-point favorites on March 1) and Tennessee (89-86 as a 2 point dog on Wednesday). The defeats put a serious dent in the two-time defending champion's NCAA Tournament hopes.
Kentucky (11-4 SU and ATS in the SEC) has turned its season around, winning 10 of 12 overall (9-3 ATS), all in conference, after losing nine of its first 16. On Wednesday, the Wildcats beat South Carolina 71-63 as a three-point road pup, rebounding from Sunday's 63-60 loss at then-No. 1 Tennessee as a 14?-point underdog. Billy Gillespie's team has found success on the defensive end lately, limiting the opposition to 36.8 percent shooting and 58.6 points per game in the last five.
The Gators have defeated Kentucky seven straight times (5-2 ATS), including an 81-70 overtime home victory back on Jan. 19, cashing as 7 point favorites. Last year, the Gators went to Kentucky and got a 64-61 victory, but failed to cover as a 3 point chalk. The straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
Kentucky is 7-0 at Rupp Arena against SEC foes (5-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Florida is 4-3 in SEC road games (5-2 ATS) and 5-1 ATS in its last six on Sunday.
The under is 11-4 in Kentucky's last 15 overall and 4-0 in the last four series clashes at Rupp Arena. However, the over is 5-2-1 in the Gators' last eight overall, and the first meeting between these schools back in January soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia Tech (18-11, 15-11 ATS) at (24) Clemson (21-8, 16-10 ATS)
Virginia Tech (9-6 SU and ATS in the ACC) has rattled off four straight wins and covers in conference, with the last three coming in convincing double-digit fashion. That includes Tuesday's 80-58 rout of Wake Forest as five-point favorites. The Hokies have put themselves into consideration for an at-large NCAA Tournament berth by going 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10.
Clemson (9-6 SU and ATS in the ACC ) dropped into a third place tie with Virginia Tech in the conference standings with Thursday's 80-75 loss at Georgia Tech as a three-point road favorite. The Tigers are still 6-3 SU and ATS in their last 10.
The Tigers have won and covered the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 75-74 road win as a six-point underdog in last season's lone battle. The underdog has cashed in each of the last five clashes.
The SU winner has cashed in each of Va-Tech?s last 13 contests and each of Clemson?s last 10 contests. Also, the winner is 4-1 ATS in the last five series meetings (3-0 ATS in the last three).
Clemson has rattled off six straight wins at home (5-1 ATS), where it averages almost 80 points a game while limiting the opposition to 65.2 ppg. For the season, the Tigers are 9-3 ATS at home. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 3-4 in ACC road games (4-3 ATS).
The over has been the play the last three times these teams have met and is 12-4 in the Hokies? last 16 ACC games, 10-4 in their last 14 overall and 12-5 in Clemson's last 17 at home. However, the under is on runs of 8-3 for Virginia Tech on 11 Sundays and 7-3 for Clemson overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and OVER
MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis)
Illinois State (24-8, 15-15 ATS) vs. (20) Drake (26-4, 18-7-1 ATS)
Drake (17-3, 12-7-1 ATS) advanced to the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final for the first time in school history with Saturday's 75-67 victory over Creighton as a 3?-point favorite at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The Bulldogs, who crushed in Indiana State 68-46 in Friday?s tournament opener, have set a single-season school record for victories, breaking the mark set by the 1968-69 squad that made it to the Final Four.
Illinois State reached the tournament final courtesy of Friday's 63-58 win over Missouri State as a 2 point favorite and Saturday's 56-42 rout of Northern Iowa as a 4 point chalk. The Redbirds have won six in row, and they?ve followed up a 2-9 ATS slide with four consecutive spread-cover.
During its six-game winning streak, Illinois State is giving up just 49.3 points per game., holding all four of the six foes to less than 50 points.
These teams played two very competitive games in the regular season, with Drake coming out on top in both outings. The Bulldogs won 79-73 as a 4 point home chalk and 73-70 as a four-point road underdog. That latter victory snapped a 4-0 ATS run by the favorite in this rivalry.
Drake, which has followed up an 0-3 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers in the first two rounds of this weekend?s tournament, is 13-3 on the highway this season (11-3-1 ATS in lined contests. Meanwhile, the Redbirds have won four straight and five of their last six on the highway (4-2 ATS).
The over is 10-2 in Drake's last 12 games overall (6-2 on the road). Conversely, Illinois State has stayed under the total in all six games during its winning streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DRAKE
WEST COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at San Diego)
Santa Clara (15-15, 14-14 ATS) vs. (22) Gonzaga (24-6, 17-13 ATS)
Gonzaga (13-1, 9-5 ATS in conference) captured its eighth consecutive West Coast Conference regular-season title with Monday's 88-54 rout of Santa Clara, easily cashing as a 15?-point home chalk. The Bulldogs, who earned a bye through the first two rounds of this event, enter tonight's semifinal matchup riding a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS), with six of the wins coming by double digits.
Santa Clara outscored San Francisco 27-19 in the second half of Saturday's conference quarterfinal matchup at the Jenny Craig Center in San Diego, holding on for a 51-50 victory but misfiring as a 5?-point favorite. The Broncos (7-8, 8-7 ATS in conference) are still just 3-5 SU in their last eight contests and 3-6 ATS in the last nine, including 0-3 ATS in the last three.
In addition to Monday's blowout win over Santa Clara at home, Gonzaga topped the Broncos 87-82 in overtime on Feb. 2, coming up short as a 7 point road chalk.
Gonzaga is 3-1 (2-2 ATS) on neutral courts this season. Also, the Zags won in this venue two weeks ago, beating host San Diego 59-55, but failing to cash as a six-point road chalk. They went 6-1 in conference road games (4-3 ATS). Meanwhile, Santa Clara is now 3-5 SU and ATS on the highway in West Coast Conference action this year.
The over is 6-3 in Gonzaga's last nine outings, while Santa Clara had a four-game'over' streak snapped when Saturday's game against San Francisco stayed well under the total. Prior to the 4-0 'over' run, the Broncos had gone 13-3 'under' the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
15 Dime ?
PURDUE
Take Purdue as the road chalk today over Michigan.
The Boilermakers will be looking to bounce back from Tuesday?s loss at Ohio State, and what better opponent than Michigan to accomplish that?
Purdue is still in line for a possible top-four seed in the NCAA tournament, so expect them to bring their A-game today.
Michigan has lost momentum is and limping into the conference tournament off back-to-back losses to bottom-feeders Northwestern and Penn State.
Purdue has a smothering defense that allows just 61 ppg. That falls nicely in line with Michgan?s sputtering offense that averages just 64 pgg.
The Boilermakers are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road chalk, while Michigan is just 3-6 ATS as a single-digit dog.
Take Purdue minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
10 Dime ?
SPURS
Take the Spurs as the tiny road chalk today over the Suns.
Believe me; the Spurs shouldn?t have any problems with this game. Not after Phoenix went out and got Shaquille O?Neal at the trading deadline, which actually turned a fair defensive team into a poor one overnight.
San Antonio knows how to play team defense, so they shouldn?t have any problems holding the Suns high-paced attack in check.
On offense, the Spurs have far too many weapons for Phoenix to hang with.
Phoenix has allowed 113 points or more in six of the last eight games.
You aren?t going to beat a team like San Antonio when you allow that many points.
Take the Spurs as they grab the road win and cover.
5 Dime ?
FLORIDA
Take the points with Florida when they travel to take on Kentucky.
I know the numbers don?t bear me out with this one, but I truly believe the Gators will rally and grab that all important road win here to improve their chances at getting into the Big Dance.
Kentucky will suffer from missing star freshman center Patrick Patterson, who is out for today?s game.
His absence will allow Florida?s Marreese Speights to control the paint. The freshman has recorded three straight double-doubles and had 20 points in the Gators overtime win over the Wildcats in the first meeting.
Florida has also tightened up its perimeter defense, holding its last three opponents to a combined 18 of 55 from 3-point range.
Take the points with Florida as they stay within the number on the roa
Sebastian
NCAA
50* Ohio St
50* Michigan
20* Clemson
20* Middle Tenn
20* Virginia Comm
NHL
10* Pitt
Insider
West.Michigan
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