Weekend cheat sheet

[Raji]

It’s dress rehearsal weekend for the top teams in the land. That means it’s the last chance to make a good impression on the pollsters prior to the start of the major conference tournaments starting next week.

Like the victory lap in a NASCAR Cup race, plenty of jockeying will take place between now and Sunday. The race is on, let’s see who gets the checkered flag…

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 5 Duke Blue Devils

The biggest game this season since the Tennessee/Memphis meeting a month ago. While many a team has been chewed up and spit out on Tobacco Road, Saturday’s contest more resembles a tournament atmosphere. As you would expect, both teams bring plenty to the table in this battle for the top spot in the ACC. For UNC the incentive is in avenging a home loss suffered a month ago against the Bleu Devils. Interestingly, in his tenure with the Tar Heels, head coach Roy Williams is 4-0 ATS as a road dog when playing with same season home loss revenge. In addition, Carolina is a mind-boggling 32-2 straight-up in its last thirty-four games when playing with three or more days of rest. On the flip side, Duke tends to run out of gas late in the season as evidenced buy its 6-14 ATS mark during the regular season from Game 29 out, including 1-8 at home.

From a statistical perspective it’s hard to imagine that the team who holds edges in all of the major categories (read: scoring, rebounding, offensive and defensive field goal percentage) would be the underdog. The bottom line is either team is more than capable of winning this contest. When one of those two teams is an incentive laden underdog that is 9-0 as puppy chow in its last nine performances, it’s hard not to look their way.

No. 2 UCLA Bruins

Whew! The Wizards of Westwood got by the skin of their teeth in a bruising overtime battle with Stanford Thursday night to clinch the PAC 10 title. The host California in a season ender on Saturday as they prepare to take on all comers in the NCAA Tournament ahead. Thanks to a miraculous pointspread cover, UCLA improved its lot to 12-5 ATS in conference clashes, including 7-1 SU and ATS against a foe off an ATS win. However, the question at hand in this matchup is whether Ben Howland’s hounds will put it on cruise control or whether they will be out to enhance their chance at landing a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance? The feeling here is the 15-13 Bears, losers of six of their last seven games, need this game for their post-season lives. An 11-1 ATS spread mark as dogs of more than four points on this floor makes our choice an easy one.

No. 3 Memphis Tigers

John Calipari knows his team’s fate lies in the hands maintaining its Top Three status if his troops are to awarded a No.1 seed in the Big Event. All they need to do stay clean from now throughout the CUSA tourney and they’ll realize their reward. The problem is when a team’s mindset is such they often times find themselves going through the motions, rather than attacking an opponent. The fact of the matter is they’ve been blowing in the wind a lot lately as their 1-8-1 ATS record in the last ten games would attest. When they host UAB this Saturday it will be with confidence, no doubt, as they are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in this series (they edged the Blazers, 79-78 earlier this year). Still, can’t look past the Ham’s 26-13 ATS log in same season revenge games and, at 22-8 on the season, the fact that they can play. No Tiger Paw for us.

No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols passed a huge test Thursday night when they rallied back from a double-digit margin to escape Florida, 89-86. They’ll conclude the regular season portion of the schedule at home Sunday when they host a 13-16 South Carolina that appears to be going nowhere fast. What to expect? For one thing it’s never wise laying double-digits in a conference game with a team that cannot improve its lot, especially one that is 1-9 ATS as a favorite of nine or more points against today’s foe. No surprise to see the visiting team improve its mark to 17-5 ATS in Cock fights this year.

No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks

The Big 12 title is up for grabs between Kansas and Texas this weekend and, unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they do not control their own fate. Both teams are deadlocked at 12-3 atop the standings, but the Longhorns upset win in Austin gives them the hammer. Nonetheless, Kansas travels to Texas A&M in a tough venue on Saturday where the Aggies are 67-9 SU in their last 76 home games, with only four losses by more than six points. Our ‘Kansas Rule’ is in effect here, too, as A&M allows just 59 PPG at home this year (only game they surrendered more than 76 points was triple OT loss against Baylor). To that we note the Jayhawks are 0-9-1 ATS this season in games in which they score less than 78 points, a stark comparison to their 20-0 SU and 14-3-1 ATS ledger when they reach the 78-point plateau. You know what to do here.

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal

What a heart-breaking loss for the Cardinal Thursday night at UCLA. Clearly the better team for 39:58 of the game, it remains to be seen whether they can lift themselves back up off the mat when they visit Southern Cal this Saturday. Most basketball psychologists would say NO WAY JOSE, not in the manner in which they lost (and failed the spread to boot). College basketball purists might likely point to the fact that Stanford has not suffered back-to-back losses this season and with that, they are a play in this game. We’re not buying that bunk. To re-iterate, the Cardinal has absolutely nothing to gain in this game (they have 2nd place locked up in the standings) and thus become a dead item. Couple their 0-7 ATS mark in games off a loss in this series along with USC’s 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS record in LHG’s (Last Home Games) off a win and suddenly it looks like another Trojan cover is in order.

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers

A win and they’re in – first place in the Big 10, that is. That’s all Wisconsin needs this Saturday when they visit conference cellar dweller Northwestern. Before you snap the rubber band, though, you might want to consider the fact the double-digit conference dogs in the final home game of the season are 64-39-3 ATS in all games since 1991. That’s a solid 60% winning angle on the blind, one in which SMU came up shooting Wednesday night against Memphis. With all the pressure on Wisky in a game that is likely to see 60 points to the winner, it’s Wildcats or bust for us.

No. 9 Texas Longhorns

Before taking a stance on this game, check out Kansas’ result at Texas A&M Saturday. If the Jayhawks went belly-up the Longhorns would take the court with the Big 12 title in hand when they host Oklahoma State on Sunday. At 16-13 on the year, the Cowboys find themselves on the proverbial ‘bubble’ entering this contest. It should be noted that OSU shines in same season revenge during the regular campaign, going 25-11-3 ATS, including 9-1 the last ten games and 8-2 away. The bottom line is if the Horns need a win they’ll get it (16-1 home this season). If they don’t they likely get it anyway, just not as comfortably as they would like.

No. 10 Georgetown Hoyas

Attention all defensive purists: please report immediately to the Verizon Center this Saturday. You’ll love what you don’t see. In this case that would be scoring, or a lack thereof. That should be the case when the Hoyas host Louisville for the cheese in the biggest game in the Big East this season. The Cardinals shunted the Hoyas, 59-51, in an earlier meeting in Louisville this season. With Georgetown ranked No. 1 in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (36.2) and Louisville No. 3 (37.9), this game should be more of the same. In closing, one final note from our database: college teams playing their final home game of the season on an undefeated home court hold a 57.5% spread edge (46-34-2) since 1991. While that stat may be Underwhelming to most, it’s a precursor to what should be another snoozer between these two.


Raji