MVC Tourney Preview

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Evansville vs. Missouri State (-13 ½, 128)



You can't be blamed if Missouri State makes you a little nervous to put your money behind heading into the Missouri Valley tournament.



This is a team that had high expectations heading into the season, but injuries and controversy held the Bears to a sub-.500 conference mark and they were the worst bet in the MVC at 10-17 ATS (against the spread).



The Bears now head into the conference amid reports that head coach Barry Hinson will get the axe at the end of the season no matter how Missouri State does in St. Louis.



If you believe their recent play is an indicator of how the team will respond, you like Missouri State’s chances of doing some damage this weekend. The school finished the year with four wins and covered spreads in its last six games, which includes an 86-83 win over top 25 team and MVC-leading Drake.



Forward Dale Lamberth enters the weekend as the hottest player in the conference with 78 points over his past three games and he was named conference player of the week on Monday.



Lamberth combines with fellow senior Devin Mitchell to give Missouri State one of the toughest front courts in the MVC, a conference that is more renowned for its guard play. The two forwards each average over 14 points per game and both are capable of double-doubling you on any given night.



Lamberth and Mitchell are the main reasons why the past four games have gone over the total for the Bears.



Missouri State’s biggest challenge will be making sure it shuts down Evansville’s perimeter shooting. Though the Aces are the lowest scoring team in the MVC with just 60.1 per game, they happen to be the best three-point shooters at 37.9 percent.



Unfortunately for the Bears, they are the second-worst in the conference at defending the trey and when Evansville beat them 84-65 back on Jan. 26, Missouri State allowed the Aces to go 12 of 22 from downtown. That's especially embarrassing, considering Evansville finished last in the conference this year with just three wins.



The Bears must have learned their lesson, however, because in the second meeting they allowed Evansville to shoot just six treys, only one of which went in. Missouri State pummeled the Aces 76-38 in that game, coincidentally, as 13 ½-point favorites.



Junior guard Jason Holsinger and guard-forward Shy Ely are the two Aces that Missouri State needs to watch. Holsinger can heat up from outside in a hurry and Ely can beat you inside or outside.



Evansville is a terrible rebounding team, though, and if the Bears can limit its long balls again, they shouldn’t have any problem Thursday.



Pick: Missouri State -13 1/2

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Wichita State vs. Indiana State (-4 ½, 124 ½)

The Shockers and Sycamores split their two meetings this season with both teams claiming wins on home court.

The Sycamores came away with a profit in this series, however, earning a cover at home and a push at Wichita State. The first meeting was settled by five points on Feb. 9 and the second game needed overtime before Indiana State won 73-63 on Feb. 19.

That means we can assume these two teams match up well, so you have to look hard at Wichita State getting 4 ½ points.

What the Shockers do well is rebound. They own, by far, the best rebounding margin in the conference (+6.6) and eight players average at least two boards per game. Those numbers might dwindle though if forward Phillip Thomasson can’t play.
He is listed as doubtful after a foot injury last game and he ranks fourth on the Shockers with 4.3 boards per game. It should be noted that the team that won the rebounding battle won the game in both meetings this season.

Indiana State has the worst rebounding margin in the conference (-2.1) and they give up size against the bigger Shockers.

What the Sycamores do much better than the Shockers though, is protect the ball. Wichita State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the MVC and they handed the ball over 20 times in the most recent loss to the Sycamores.

That’s worrisome, considering Indiana State has three players who average double figures. All-MVC team honorable mention Gabriel Moore scores 12 points per game and chips in with 4.8 assists while guards Marico Stinson scores 12.3 and Harry Marshall scores 10 ppg.

The Sycamores don’t play great defense with 67 points against per game, but freshman Isiah Martin led the league in blocks (55) and was named to the All-Freshman team.

But perhaps the most important element of this game is the total.

The over has prevailed in Indiana State’s last nine games while Wichita State has played over in nine of its last 10 outings. Over bettors also took the money in both meetings this season, which had totals of 124 and 121 ½.

Both teams are also scoring more points, and allowing more, than their season averages over their past five games, which almost makes you wonder if oddsmakers have overlooked something here. Not likely, but with the lack of defense from these teams lately, it’s tough not to jump on the trend.

Pick: over 124 1/2

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Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis

Odds: So. Illinois -8, O/U 117 ½ (as of early Thursday afternoon)

Game time: 9:35 p.m. ET on FSMW



If Southern Illinois wants to find itself scrawled in the bracket of the NCAA Tournament for the seventh straight year, the team will probably need to win Arch Madness.



To do that, the Salukis will have to beat a pesky Northern Iowa team that already beat them once this year, 68-63, back in early February when the Panthers were favored by two points.



The Salukis easily won and covered in the second meeting and to do it again, they’ll need tough defense and big play from the frontcourt.



The Panthers are just 1-12 this season when held to fewer than 60 points and 16-1 when they score more than 60. And usually, when they score more than 60 it comes from the paint, namely center Eric Coleman.



Coleman, an MVC second-team selection, is the only Division I player in the nation to lead his team in scoring (11.9 ppg), rebounding (8.5 rpg), assists (2.0 apg), blocked shots (1.4 bpg), steals (0.7 spg) and field goal percentage (.551).



Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, he is the only player on the team to average double digits in scoring. If you can shut him down, you can shut the Panthers down. The Salukis held him to just two points and three rebounds when they beat the Panthers 67-47 on Feb. 20.



Fortunately for Southern Illinois, they have a strong frontcourt and team-leading scorer and MVC first-teamer Randal Falker will likely be charged with the task of guarding Coleman. Falker was the Valley’s defensive player of the year last season, so the job is in good hands.



However, that will limit his production, which means the points will have to come from somewhere else for the Salukis. Forward Matt Shaw (12 ppg) will need a huge effort just like when he poured in 23 and had nine rebounds in the most recent meeting with Northern Iowa.



He’ll be helped on the outside by point guard Bryan Mullins, who averages 11 points and five assists per game and was named this year’s MVC defensive player of the year.



If the Panthers hope to pull off the upset, they’ll likely have to rely on defense. They are the best team in the conference at defending field goals and rank third in the conference with just 60.9 points against.



In the first meeting against the Salukis this year, they held them to just 36 percent on field goals and 25 percent on three-pointers.



But that was at home. Northern Iowa can expect more of a road atmosphere this time in St. Louis where Southern Illinois is traditionally known to bring the biggest, and loudest, throng of fans of any school to Arch Madness.



Pick: Southern Illinois -8


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Indiana State Sycamores vs. Drake Bulldogs

Odds: Drake -9 1/2, 132 1/2

Game time: 1 p.m. ET on FSMW



The Sycamores face the toughest scheduling spot of Arch Madness when they’re forced to hit the court for a noon game Friday after finishing their game against Wichita State Thursday night at just after 8 p.m. local time.



That’s the luxury No. 20-ranked Drake gets for finishing first in the conference this season and it will make it that much tougher for Indiana State to pull off the upset.



The Bulldogs will need to fight any complacency, though, because they likely have an NCAA Tournament berth locked up with only four losses on the season and a top 25 ranking in their back pocket.



The Sycamores enter this game after a 71-67 win over Wichita State Thursday night as 1 1/2-point underdogs. However, the win had as much to do with a decent performance by Indiana State as it did with a poor effort by the Shockers.



Wichita State coach Greg Marshall was ejected in the second half after a pair of technicals and it seemed to take the wind out of the Shockers’ sails from there. WSU had one of their worst shooting performances of the season, clanking 36.4 percent of its field goals, 33.3 percent of its three-pointers and a pitiful 63.2 percent of free throws.



The good news for Indiana State is that it won despite a disappointing effort from leading scorer Marico Stinson. Though Stinson hit all three treys made by the Sycamores, he made some poor shooting decisions late in the game and didn’t seem his usual self.



Forward Todd McCoy (14 points, 9 rebounds) had a season high in points and Jay Tunnel (18 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks) had his second highest scoring game of the season.



The Sycamores used a full-court press at times to throw the Shockers off and they buried them at the charity stripe by nailing 26 of 31 attempts (83.9 percent). They even out-rebounded Wichita State 42-36, which says a lot for the Shockers’ effort considering the smaller Sycamores have the worst rebounding margin in the Valley.



Unfortunately for Indiana State, the full-court press bit won’t work against Drake. League MVP Adam Emmenecker is the best ball handler in the conference and he leads the MVC with 6.1 assists.



Simply put, Drake has too many horses for Indiana State. The Sycamores won’t be able to bully the Bulldogs in the paint like they did against Wichita State against forwards like Jonathan Cox (8.3 rpg) and Klayton Korver (9.9 ppg). They won’t want to get into a fast-break competition either, because that’s Drake’s favorite way to play.



In two meetings this season, Drake won by a combined 28 points and covered the spread both times. You should take note, though, that the most recent meeting was an 83-77 decision with the Bulldogs favored by just three points.



If you’re looking at the total, you’ll want to know that Indiana State moved up as the sole No. 2 over team in the nation after Friday’s win. The combined 138 points scored jumped over the 125 ½-point total, making the over/under ratio 20-8 on the season.



The Sycamores have incredibly gone over the total in their last 10 games. Nine of the last 10 Drake games have also played over.



Pick: Drake -9 1/2

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Missouri State Bears vs. Illinois State Redbirds

Odds: Illinois State -3, 126 1/2

Game time: 7:05 p.m. ET on FSMW



The last few days in practice, all the Bears have been working has been rebounds and aggressiveness.



Well, I guess the practice paid off because they earned their biggest rebounding margin of the season when they out-rebounded Evansville 47-20 Thursday night. Missouri State hammered Evansville 69-48 in what was the most lopsided victory in an opening round session of the MVC tournament.



The Bears took the money as 10 ½-point favorites, which gave the Bears their fourth straight win and cover. They led the game from start to finish, which enabled them to rest their key starters for the rest of the weekend.



“Literally it was like another practice the day before we played because I don't want anybody

telling these guys ooh, four games, four days, you can't do it, you know, the Giants can't beat the Patriots, all that stuff,” said Bears head coach Barry Hinson, who is reported to be finished at the end of the season for Missouri State. “One of the things we talked about was get off to a good start, game over, move on to the next day.”



If you didn’t believe Missouri State was a dangerous team coming into the tournament, you’d better believe it now.



Injuries and distractions surrounding the coaching situation led this team to a stumbles throughout the season and the Bears fell short of expectations with a 10-17 ATS (against the spread) heading into the tournament.



This an experienced team, however, and now that it’s healthy, Missouri State will be tough for any team they face.



The Bears went 0-2 SU (straight up) and ATS against Illinois State this season and both meetings played under the total. The Redbirds provide some key matchup problems that has Bears coach Hinson worried, namely Osiris Eldridge.



Eldridge co-leads the conference in scoring with 16.3 points per game and he can beat you from beyond the arc or drive the hoop and beat you inside. Forward Anthony Slack is another problem with his 54.1 field-goal percentage and seven rebounds per game.



So the Birds can beat you inside or outside and they rank in the top three in the Valley in both field-goal shooting and three-pointers. They are also the best defensive team with fewer than 60 points against per game and they’re accustomed to seeing low totals.



Their last four games have played under some low numbers and they’ve held opponents to less than 40 percent field goal shooting and 30 percent three-point shooting over the past five games.



With that in mind, and Missouri State’s renewed intensity on defense, the under is worth a strong look for tonight’s game.



Pick: under 126 1/2

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Illinois State vs. Drake FINALS

Odds: Drake -2, O/U 128 1/2

Game time: 2 p.m. FSNMidwest



When Creighton’s P’Allen Stinnett ripped his mouth guard out and fired it down the sideline with just under three minutes left in the first half, it pretty much said it all.



The Bluejays were in the middle of an eight-minute stretch in which they didn’t score a field goal and managed only one free throw against Drake in Saturday’s semifinal. They went from enjoying a five-point lead to trailing by nine points going into the half.



The reason is this Drake squad can change the tempo of a game in a hurry with its versatile and stifling defense. The Bulldogs can frustrate you to the boiling point by throwing different looks at you and forcing you to squeeze out bad shots.



Against Creighton, they started with a matchup zone and switched to a more standard 2-3 when the Bluejays jumped out to the lead.



It’s easy to overlook the Bulldogs’ defense considering the way their offense plays. All five starters scored in double figures on Saturday despite the fact they only won 75-67. Four of the five can nail the trey and they are the best dribble penetration unit in the MVC, led by league MVP Adam Emmenecker, who is the one guy who doesn’t launch from downtown. (Oddly enough, the point guard doesn’t even have a college three-pointer in his career.)



Ask Stinnett, though, and it’s the defense that’s the toughest part to overcome when you play Drake. The freshman MVC player of the year picked up a technical for the mouthpiece toss, which came just after his third personal of the game.



Illinois State matches up about as well as you can in the Valley. They have big forwards down low like Brandon Sampay and they’ll need to take advantage of size in the frontcourt. Drake has worked Jonathan Cox hard in the paint this weekend and he might be feeling some of the effects from that.



Drake might be a little more tired than Illinois State coming into this one overall after gritty game against Creighton that featured some hard, but not flagrant fouls around the basket.



The Redbirds will need to get the most out of their guards, especially Osiris Eldridge. Eldridge led the MVC in scoring this season with 16.3 points per game.



Another key for Illinois State is hanging onto the ball. In two losses and blown covers to Drake this season, they coughed up the ball 30 times. Those games were decided by only combined nine points and the turnovers helped both games go over the total.



Which brings up another, and maybe the most important key to this game – free throws. The Birds are the worst team from the stripe in the Valley and they shot less than 60 percent in both losses to Drake. That could end up being the difference again on Sunday.



This marks Drake’s first appearance in the MVC final, so don’t think the Bulldogs will be happy to have just earned a berth in the NCAA Tournament. They’ll want to bring home the conference banner.



Pick: Drake -2


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