Conference Tournament Thread

[Bobby O'Shea]

I am going to make one thread for all of my conference tournament picks and info! I saw this article and wanted to start with it so I wouldn't misplace it. If you have any info then post away and I will add my picks when the tournmaets start!

By this time next week, regular season play will have neared its conclusion and conference tournaments will take center stage kicking off the four-plus week circus called March Madness.

This is the last opportunity for those college teams on the outside looking in (bubble teams) to make their final impressions while others will look to improve their rankings.

In my quest for you to beat your book, I have posted below several angles and trends that have proved advantageous over previous seasons.

*****Favorites who won both meetings during the regular season against its opponent and his opponent is off two consecutive wins cover at a 60% ATS clip.

*****Underdogs of 9 or more points in any round except a Conference Championship game, playing with in-season double revenge, and its opponent is off a SU win, cover at a 67.1% ATS clip.

******Favorites in single revenge situations cover 70.6% of the time.

********* Conference tournament favorites that are off exactly one straight up loss and have not lost two straight against the spread cover at a 59% clip. If the opponent is off a double digit loss, the favorite covers at a 61% clip. And if the underdog enters off a double digit win, the favorite covers at a 62% ATS clip.

*******Conference tournament favorites off a SU loss in which they lost by double digits vs. an opponent that has a sub-.500 record and is off a win, cover 76.5% of the time.

*** Favorites of more than 2 points that are off a straight-up loss as a favorite in its final regular season game, provided it has revenge against its opponent, are 67% ATS over the past 16 years.

******Favorites that are off back to back SU and ATS losses, and are matched up against the same foe that they played against in their last game of the regular season, cover at a 75% ATS clip.

*****Conference tournament favorites that are off a straight up loss have proved profitable in the past. If the favorite is off a single loss and has not lost two straight against the spread, they cover just over 60% of the time.

(a) Place this same favorite up against an opponent who is off a double digit loss, the favorite covers the number 63.4% of the games played.
(b) If the underdog opponent is off a double digit win, the number climbs again to 63.6%.

******Favorites off a SU win as a Double digit favorite, but lost ATS, cover at a 59.8% clip.

(a) If opponents are off a SU win, the favorite improves to 63.3%.
(b) If favorite is lined at -6.5 or less points for this encounter, the numbers become quite juicy at 71.2%.
(c) If the -6.5 or less point favorite is playing an opponent that has a winning percentage of less than .620, our favorite hits a tasty 32-1 SU and 26-6-2 ATS (81.2%).

*****Underdogs of +7 points or less in Conference Tournament games, off a SU home dog win in their previous game and have a win percentage of .290 or better cover just 29% ATS of the time, including 20% ATS vs. a foe off a win.

****** Underdogs of more than +6 points off an upset win as a dog of +9 or more in Conference tourney games before the final round are just 28% ATS, including 18% ATS vs. a foe off a win.

****Underdogs off a SU win and with in-season double revenge, fail to cover more than 56% of the time. If this same underdog has won its last two games, the number jumps to 62% failure rate.

**** College teams playing at home in the finals of a Conference tournament and are off BB SU and ATS wins vs. a foe that's not off BB SU and ATS wins cover 80%+.

*******Conference Specific Trends

The SU winner of games in the ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE are 87-22-1 ATS.

ATLANTIC TEN CONFERENCE #5 seeds are 3-13 ATS as dogs.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE favs playing with revenge are 3-11 ATS vs. opponent off back to back wins.

BIG 10 CONFERENCE #10 and #11 Seeds are 9-1 ATS off a loss.

BIG 12 CONFERENCE teams who are 3-0 SU+ATS L3 games are 1-7 ATS as dogs, 1-8 ATS off a DD ATS win and 1-6 ATS with revenge.

BIG WEST CONFERENCE #9 and #10 seeds are 7-0-1 ATS.

COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION #1 Seeds are 10-4 ATS L14 games.

CONFERENCE USA teams playing with revenge off SU+ATS loss are 13-4-1 ATS.

HORIZON CONFERENCE teams off win by 10 points or less are 5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS.

MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE #3 Seeds are 3-10 ATS L13 games.

MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE teams off 3-0 SU+ATS L3 games are 12-5 ATS (7-1 ATS as dogs).

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE #5 Seeds are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games.

PAC 10 CONFERENCE teams off BB wins are 6-1 ATS vs. .714 > opponents.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE #2 Seeds are 8-1 ATS as favs 9 or less points.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE #1 Seeds are 6-1 ATS L7 games.

WEST COAST CONFERENCE home favorites are 9-1 ATS.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE #1 Seeds are 9-0 SU + ATS L3 years.

Bobby O

[BangTheBook]

Good stuff Bobby, its amazing how these angles/tips etc get over looked each year.