Saturday Cheat Sheet

[Raji]

For the third time in three weeks a new No.1 team will top the college basketball rankings next week. Tennessee’s trip-up at Vanderbilt finds them on the outside looking in once again as Roy Williams’ Tar Heels of North Carolina are set to assume the position provided, of course, they get past Boston College Saturday afternoon.

Should UNC blow the opportunity, the top spot will be up for grabs. Like the narrowing list of candidates in the US Presidential race, let’s take a look at who qualifies and who doesn’t inside this weekend edition of the Cheat Sheet.

No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers

The puckering sound you hear in the background is simply the Vols’ goodbye kiss upon its short-lived, one-week tenure as the top team in the land. At least they enjoyed it while it lasted. They become the first team to take 100 years to earn a No. 1 national ranking and then lose it all inside a 72-hour span. They’ll host ascending Kentucky on Sunday with revenge on their minds from a 72-66 loss in Lexington earlier this year. They’ve been terrific at home under Bruce Pearl (25-9-2 ATS) and even better in games under his lead when playing off a loss against an opponent off a pair of wins (6-0 ATS). If the price is right, we’ll likely volunteer a play on Tennessee.

No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels

Do you think Roy Williams is ready to have his troops to assume the No.1 spot in next week’s rankings, what with the targeted pressure and all that comes with the distinction? There’s no question he’ll accept the honor provided, of course, he gets past Boston College on Saturday. The Eagles are only 13-13 on the season, meaning an upset win would be a huge bullet in their gun belt come NIT selection time. And for what its worth, BC is 9-5 ATS taking points at home this decade, including 7-1 when grabbing more than a trey. They are also allowing just 69 PPG on the season, a number that could make the Tar Heels queasy considering they are 21-0 SU and 17-1 ATS in games in which they manage to score 84 or more points this season, but just 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS when they don’t. We’ll take a long look at the points in this fray.

No. 3 Memphis Tigers

It can be said, and perhaps rightfully so, the best thing to happen to the Tigers was to lose to Tennessee last Saturday. Like sticking a pin in an over inflated balloon, the pressure has been lifted and now Memphis can enjoy playing basketball once again. The problem we have, however, is that until they right themselves completely (read: win and cover) we’ll continue to either observe or fade this group for a while. In the meantime, the Tigers will take a 1-6-1 spread mark in their last eight games into Southern Mississippi this Saturday. That’s the same team they ripped apart 83-47 in the first meeting earlier this season. The Golden Eagles check in at 15-12, on the NIT bubble, this season. More important, they are riding a 28-4 SU and 14-2-1 ATS mark at home since the start of last season. No surprise to see the host in this series to improve to 9-1-2 ATS.

No. 4 UCLA Bruins

It’s our contention that if the NCAA tournament were to start this week, the Bruins would be the team to beat. They certainly bring the tools to table with defense, rebounding and athleticism. They travel to Tucson to take on the Wildcats on Sunday in what could prove to be a bad spot. For openers, they beat Arizona, 82-60, in Westwood earlier this season – the biggest win by UCLA in this series since the 1980’s. The Wildcats are 12-5 SU as a series host, having been favored all 17 times. And there is no better pedigree dog than Arizona, a team that is 52-20 ATS taking points since 1995, including 25-8 when facing an .880 or better opponent. UCLA had better bring it’s A-game; they are going to need it.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns

Don’t look now, but here come the Horns. With eight straight wins (7-0-1 ATS) they travel to Lubbock to meet the Red Raiders this Saturday, a team they trashed, 73-47, earlier this season. They are off a road win at Kansas State (6-1 ATS off win over Wildcats) and have Nebraska up next (8-2 ATS before the Huskers). Yeah, life couldn’t be any better for Rick Barnes’ boys than it is today. The problem we have, though, is that Texas Tech defends its fort rather well (8-2 ATS here this season) and they are off a 45-point pasting at A&M. Be careful here. We’ll call this our “ABO” Game of the Week – Always Beware of the Obvious.

No. 6 Duke Blue Devils

When the Blue Devils travel to Raleigh to meet the Wolfpack this Saturday it will be with trepidation. That’s because Last Home Games tend to bring the best out in certain teams, especially those sporting a winning record. Dress them up as dogs with same-season revenge and you have a winning combination that’s hard to beat (57% on over 200 plays since 1990). Stretch the revenge to 20 or more points from the same season and bring the foe in off a pair of wins and you suddenly have a neat 22-6 ATS winning angle. Couple this with Duke’s penchant for gagging down the stretch on the road against .500 or better teams (21-32-1 ATS mark in this role from Game 24 out during the regular season, including 3-12 when favored off a home game) and we’ll stay with the numbers in our support of NC State in this contest.

No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks

We’ll be the first to admit this year’s Jayhawks’ squad has holes. Their assist-to-turnover ratio ranks below the national average and they really struggled in games in which they’ve scored fewer than 78 points this season (0-9-1 ATS). Put the shoe on the other foot, though, and they know how to bring home the bacon. That’s because they are 18-0 SU & 12-3-1 ATS this season when they manage to score 78 or more points in a game. Now, roll the clock back to the first meeting this year between these rivals when 20-0 Kansas laid 7-points at Kansas State, only to suffer their first loss of the campaign. A 17-0 record at Allen Fieldhouse this season, and a 35-2 SU mark in this series has us looking only one way here tonight. Swiss cheese aside, you either lay it or leave it when Kansas State invades this Saturday.

No. 8 Stanford Cardinal

Quietly, very quietly, the Cardinal has put itself into prime consideration when mention of NCAA tournament “sleeper team” talk is bandied about. Led by a pair of 7-foot Twin Towers, Stanford ranked No. 3 in the land in Rebound Margin (+10.0), Stanford puts its 15-1 home record on the line when they host Washington State on Saturday. The Cougars dropped a 67-65 decision to the Cardinal in Pullman earlier this season and will be out for revenge. WSU is 8-3-1 ATS on the road thus campaign, but just 3-22 SU in its last 25 games in this series. With Stanford all but assured a second place finish in the PAC 10, and the Cougars fending off USC for third place conference honors, look for this game to go right down to the wire.

No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers

On the heels on an impressive 57-42 win over Michigan State Thursday night, the Badgers are off until next Wednesday when they host Penn State in their final home game of the season. When we examine this game in our Cheat Sheet Sneak Peek next week, we’ll point out some eye-opening numbers in this that will have you scratching your head.

No. 10 Georgetown Hoyas

Another big battle in the Big East tips off at Marquette when the Golden Eagles close out their home campaign against the top team in the conference, Georgetown. The Hoyas are actually tied with Louisville for the top spot, while Marquette is battling two other teams for third place in the loop. The Eagles are 14-1 at home this season while currently riding a 6-0 ATS win skein. On the flipside, Georgetown is just 5-10 ATS in conference play this season. All good reasons to make a solid case for Marquette. Our problem, however, is that we don’t lay points into the nation’s top-ranked team in defensive field goal percentage (36.3). Take it or leave it.


Raji