The first game I like today is :
745 La. Lafayette
746 W. Kentucky
Louisiana Lafayette 5-12 SU & 3-12 ATS 3-7 ATS on the road - Have lost 7 in a row ATS & only 2-5 SU in that stretch, in their last five they are scoring 54.8 PF while shooting 36.9% from the field 17.8 3P%. While their defense has allowed 63.4 PA 38.4 FG% 33.3 3P%.
W. Kentucky 13-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 4-4 ATS @ home - have won 4 of their last five SU and 3-2 ATS. Last five stats - scoring 72.8 PF while shooting 44.9 FG% & 30.3 3P%, Their defense in last 5 have allowed 66.0 PA 40.9 FG% 31.4 3P%.
At home this year W. Kentucky is scoring 80.2 ppg shooting 47.3% from the field & 38.2 from beyond the arc.
And the defense @ home is allowing only 68.6 ppg 42.3% from the field & 30.5 3P%.
La. Lafayette offense away is scoring 63.9 ppg while shooting 41.9% FG & 26.7 3P%, while the defense is allowing 73.0 PA 39.1 FG% 40.2 3P%.
Some trends to consider:
La. Lafayette Recent ATS Trends - after scoring 60 points or less 1-4,
after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games 0-4, when playing against a team with a winning record 3-5, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game 1-3, in all games 3-12, when the total is 140 to 149.5 0-5, as an underdog 3-5
as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points 1-0, in road games 3-7, against conference opponents 0-6, in January games 0-7, after a conference game 0-5, after allowing 60 points or less 0-2.
W. Kentucky Recent ATS Trends - in all games 9-7, when the total is 140 to 149.5 3-4, as a favorite 5-7, as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points 1-1, in all home games 4-4,
in a home game where the total is 140 to 144.5 0-2, against conference opponents 3-3, in January games 4-3, after a conference game 3-2, off a win against a conference rival 2-2, when playing against a team with a losing record 2-1, when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games 1-0.
La. Lafayette is 2-0 against the spread versus W. Kentucky over the last 3 seasons.
La. Lafayette is 2-0 straight up against W. Kentucky over the last 3 seasons.
W. Kentucky starting a two game homestand hasn't played since the 21st. Lafayette is coming in starting a two game road trip with less rest, last playing on the 23rd. Lafayette is bringing the #24 ranked team FG% Defense against W. Kentucky's #28 ranked team scoring offense.
I am taking W. Kentucky -10 - buying 1 - 2 units
737 Troy State 10-7 SU 8-2 ATS 5-1 ATS on the road
738 N. Texas 11-6 SU 5-7 ATS 3-4 ATS @ home
Troy St. in all lined games (8-1), when playing against a team with a winning record (4-0),
when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games (1-0),
versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games (1-0),
versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game (1-0), when the total is 150 to 159.5 (2-0), as an underdog (7-0), as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points (1-0), in road lined games (5-0), against conference opponents (4-0), in January games (4-0), after a conference game (3-0), off a win against a conference rival (2-0), after allowing 60 points or less (4-1).
N. Texas in all games (5-7), when playing against a team with a winning record (1-5),
when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games (0-1),
versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game (1-2), in all lined games (5-7),
when the total is 150 to 159.5 (1-0), as a favorite (2-3), as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points (1-0), in all home games (2-3), in home lined games (2-3), against conference opponents (2-4), in January games (3-4), after a conference game (1-4), off a win against a conference rival (0-3), after scoring 80 points or more (2-4).
Troy has won three in a row both SU & ATS 2 as a dog, N. Texas in it's last 5 lost 4 in a row ATS (going 1-4), 3 0f those four were at home.
Last 5 Stats
Troy Defense 64.6 PA 40.5 FG% 27.3 3P% 62.7 FT% 13.4 ORB 35.0 TRB
N. Texas Defense 74.2 PA 43.6 FG% 40.3 3P% 65.7 FT% 10.8 ORB 36.6 TRB
Troy Offense 75.6 PF 46.6 FG% 36.4 3P% 79.3 FT% 9.0 ORB 30.2 TRB
N. Texas Offense 74.6 PF 40.6 FG% 39.0 3P% 73.9 FT% 10.4 ORB 33.4 TRB
Here is an interesting tidbit - Total Turnovers - Troy St. 128
N. Texas 177
Going with Troy St. +4 - 2 units
S. Alabama 13-4 SU 7-5 ATS 4-2 ATS on the road
Denver 10-9 SU 8-8 ATS 5-2 ATS Home
Denver is 6-1 SU at home this year and 27-6 SU at home last 3 years. Denver is allowing only 60.4 ppg at home this year and beating opponents by an average of 10.5 ppg at home this season. Denver has lost 3 straight road games and returns home for the first time since Jan 14th. Denver is 5-1 ATS at home(8-4 ATS Overall) vs South Alabama since 1997 including 2-0 SU and ATS at home vs South Alabama last 3 years.
South Alabama just had a four game win streak snapped on January 21st @ home against W. Kentucky and had won three in a row ATS 2 of those being on the road, starting a three game road swing tonight. Going with Denver tonight -2 - 2 units
I had two more games that I liked, but some jerk off turned my puter off today while I was gone and hadn't saved what I had written up.
Denver -2 : 2 units
Troy St +4 : 2 units
W. Kentucky -10 buying 1 : 2 units