[CNOTES]

MNF - Patriots at Saints

The undefeated New Orleans Saints will receive their toughest test of the season in front of the Monday Night nation, hosting the Patriots. These two clubs are a combined 17-3 on the season, as the Saints try to move closer towards locking up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Sean Payton's squad has been the story of the NFL this season, breaking out to the best start in franchise history at 10-0. The Saints own the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 420.5 yards/game, while lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 36.9 ppg. The oddsmakers have adjusted to New Orleans' scoring prowess, making the Saints a double-digit favorite in each of the last four games. However, the Saints have covered just one of the contests, coming this past Sunday at Tampa Bay, blowing out the Bucs, 31-7, as 10 ½-point road 'chalk.'

New Orleans has been money this season as a single-digit favorite, compiling a 5-0 SU/ATS when laying less than nine points. Breaking that down further, that record may be a bit deceiving. No question it is tough to win on the road in the NFL, but three of those victories came at Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Miami.

The 48-22 victory in Week 2 at Philadelphia was impressive, but it did come against Eagles backup QB Kevin Kolb, as Donovan McNabb was out with bruised ribs. The following week, the Saints trampled the Bills, 27-7, as Terrell Owens was held without a catch, while the Bills' lone touchdown came on a fake field goal. Probably the most eye-opening win came at Miami in Week 7 as the Saints rallied from a 24-3 deficit to shock the Dolphins, 46-34, while shocking New Orleans backers who cashed as six-point road favorites.

The Saints are led by Drew Brees and his 22 touchdown tosses, but amazingly, New Orleans has a balanced offensive attack. Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush have combined for 14 rushing touchdowns, while the Saints rank fifth in the league on the ground, averaging 154.3 yards/game.

The Patriots are one of four AFC teams with seven victories (Broncos at 7-4 with Thursday victory over Giants), as the second seed in the conference is still up for grabs. New England has just about finished its home schedule, winning all six games at Gillette Stadium. The road, on the other hand, hasn't been as kind to Bill Belichick's team. The Pats are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS away from Foxboro, and that lone win didn't even come in this country, as New England blasted Tampa Bay in London, 35-7.

In all fairness, the last two losses on the road were games that the Patriots gave away. Back in Week 5 at Denver, the Pats squandered a 17-7 halftime lead, as the Broncos rallied for a 20-17 overtime victory in their brown and yellow throwback uniforms. Fast forward to Week 10 at Indianapolis, the fourth down call heard 'round the world, as Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Patriots' 28 and failed. Peyton Manning led the Colts down for the go-ahead touchdown and kept Indianapolis unbeaten with a 35-34 shocker.

Earlier it was mentioned that the Saints own the top offense in the league. Nipping on New Orleans' heels is New England, as the Pats are averaging 416.1 yards/game, which ranks second in the NFL. Tom Brady is currently one of three quarterbacks that have amassed over 3,000 yards this season, with Manning and Aaron Rodgers just ahead of Brady.

Those numbers haven't translated into large totals for New England, as the Patriots have seen totals listed at 46 or below in seven of ten games. Back in 2007, when the Pats owned the greatest single-season offensive numbers of all-time, there were six games that had a total listed in the 50's. Only two of those games finished 'over' the total, and coincidentally they were both against NFC teams, a 48-27 victory at Dallas and a 31-28 squeaker over Philadelphia.

The Monday Night 'over' trend has taken a nosedive recently, as the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three weeks. The last 'over' on Monday Night came at the Superdome, when the Saints held off the Falcons, 35-27, in Week 8, eclipsing the total of 56. Since 2007, New England has been showcased on Monday just four times, including the 25-24 close call in this year's season opener against Buffalo. Perhaps the most memorable Monday Night game in the last three seasons for the Patriots was their late rally at Baltimore in '07, staving off the Ravens, 27-24 as 19-point favorites.

The Patriots have won 17 straight regular season games against the NFC, dating back to 2005, as the last team to knock off New England prior to the playoffs was Carolina in Week 2 four seasons ago. Of course, in the midst of this nice winning streak, notice the "regular season" caveat, as the Pats were tripped up by the Giants in Super Bowl 42 back in 2007.

VI capper Bruce Marshall feels betting the total may be worth a strong consideration, "This looks like one where the Saints might not get over the hump, although I actually might prefer the "over" (despite that bloated total). Expect an enhanced pace and tempo as Brady goes after an injured Saints secondary, while Brees & Co. will be treating each possession in must-score mode. The fact the Saints have been a bit careless with the ball over the past month increases the chances of a defensive or a cheaper score distorting the total on Monday night."

Marshall has found several solid 'over' trends in each team's direction, "Both have been trending 'over' in this role, with the Patriots going 'over' 14-9 the last 23 away from home, the Saints finishing 'over' 14-4 the last 18 at the Superdome, and the 'over' hitting in 21 of the last 31 overall for New Orleans since late '07."

Fellow VI capper Joe Nelson has found several interesting nuggets on the strength of each teams' resumes, "Much is being made of the easy schedule that the Saints have faced, having only defeated two winning teams all year. While New England has faced a tougher overall schedule, the Patriots have zero wins against winning teams, having lost to both Denver and Indianapolis. The best wins for the Patriots came against 5-5 Atlanta, 5-5 Baltimore, and 5-5 Miami, and the Saints have defeated two of those teams as well. New England also has failed to win a true road game this season, as its only win away from home came against Tampa Bay in London."

Both squads are coming off different hurdles the last two weeks, and according to Nelson, the advantage may lie with New Orleans in that respect. "The Saints have some concerns on defense, but this will be the biggest game of the season by far after slugging through games against lousy teams the past two weeks. New England has played Indianapolis in a huge national TV contest, and then faced the Jets in a critical division revenge game which will make it tough to get up for yet another huge test. While going against the Patriots is never an ideal situation, taking the Saints as a very small favorite at home has value this week and this is a team that has found ways to win, and usually win convincingly even with horrible starts in several recent games. There will not be a lack of intensity or flat performance out of the gate this week," says Nelson.

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetEd.com says this game will definitely pique the public's interest. "This will be our most popular game of the year. Big action games like this usually brings solid two-way action. It's crucial to the book's earn percentage to hold a single number for as long as possible. Unnecessary line movement creates a wider lose margin. So don't expect much movement to this line," says Scott.

This line has seen change throughout the week, as Scott and his team has needed to make the necessary changes, "The line opened with the Saints -3 (+110), but quickly changed to Saints -2. The total dropped a half-point to 55 ½ since opening. The total however will see some flux. This is a relatively high starting number for an NFL total, which will cause the books to quickly react to incoming 'under' money."

The Saints are currently two-point favorites in most outfits, while the total is slowly climbing into the 57 range.