t’s never too early to prepare for the playoffs. Before you know it, the NBA post-season will be under way and with it a flock of opportunities to make some extra cash.
Let’s take a look at four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of playoffs since 1991.
All results are ATS (against the spread), unless stated otherwise.
Losing teams are moneymakers
Surprised? Don’t be. The common perception is that sub .500 teams are simply a punching bag for the elite teams.
That’s true from a straight-up standpoint where they are just 21-55. Against the spread, however, they are 37-35-6.
Inside those numbers they are 14-5-3 when playing with two days of rest, 23-13-4 in Games 2 and 3, and 15-8-1 in games whenever the over/under is 208 points or higher.
With two sub-.500 squads in the postseason from the Eastern Conference (Atlanta and Philadelphia), we’ll see how they stand up this season.
Upset Losers are winners
It’s not an oxymoron. It’s a powerful handicapping edge.
It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately following. That’s confirmed by the fact that they are a wildly profitable 41-22-1 in that situation. If they were upset at home and then return home, they improve to 31-13-1.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. More times often than not, they tend to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
Double digit dogma
Much like losing teams double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a loss. These overweight puppies are 23-11-1 in this role, including 20-7-1 if they were a dog of eight points or more in the previous game.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites.
Division Do-overs
It’s not often we’ll find divisional foes battling one another during the opening round of the playoffs, but when we do we can bank on the fact that familiarity breeds success.
The first-round host when divisional rivals meet, are 47-35-2 coming off a playoff loss, or 57 percent to the number. They improve to 29-15-2 if they scored 90 or fewer points in the defeat.
If any one team knows its opponent better than another it’s a division rival.
Enjoy the opening round of the 2008 NBA playoffs and be sure to visit my page daily throughout the post-season to find the winning angles.
Raji |