Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Odds: So. Illinois -8, O/U 117 ˝ (as of early Thursday afternoon)
Game time: 9:35 p.m. ET on FSMW
If Southern Illinois wants to find itself scrawled in the bracket of the NCAA Tournament for the seventh straight year, the team will probably need to win Arch Madness.
To do that, the Salukis will have to beat a pesky Northern Iowa team that already beat them once this year, 68-63, back in early February when the Panthers were favored by two points.
The Salukis easily won and covered in the second meeting and to do it again, they’ll need tough defense and big play from the frontcourt.
The Panthers are just 1-12 this season when held to fewer than 60 points and 16-1 when they score more than 60. And usually, when they score more than 60 it comes from the paint, namely center Eric Coleman.
Coleman, an MVC second-team selection, is the only Division I player in the nation to lead his team in scoring (11.9 ppg), rebounding (8.5 rpg), assists (2.0 apg), blocked shots (1.4 bpg), steals (0.7 spg) and field goal percentage (.551).
Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, he is the only player on the team to average double digits in scoring. If you can shut him down, you can shut the Panthers down. The Salukis held him to just two points and three rebounds when they beat the Panthers 67-47 on Feb. 20.
Fortunately for Southern Illinois, they have a strong frontcourt and team-leading scorer and MVC first-teamer Randal Falker will likely be charged with the task of guarding Coleman. Falker was the Valley’s defensive player of the year last season, so the job is in good hands.
However, that will limit his production, which means the points will have to come from somewhere else for the Salukis. Forward Matt Shaw (12 ppg) will need a huge effort just like when he poured in 23 and had nine rebounds in the most recent meeting with Northern Iowa.
He’ll be helped on the outside by point guard Bryan Mullins, who averages 11 points and five assists per game and was named this year’s MVC defensive player of the year.
If the Panthers hope to pull off the upset, they’ll likely have to rely on defense. They are the best team in the conference at defending field goals and rank third in the conference with just 60.9 points against.
In the first meeting against the Salukis this year, they held them to just 36 percent on field goals and 25 percent on three-pointers.
But that was at home. Northern Iowa can expect more of a road atmosphere this time in St. Louis where Southern Illinois is traditionally known to bring the biggest, and loudest, throng of fans of any school to Arch Madness.
Pick: Southern Illinois -8
Raji |