Wichita State vs. Indiana State (-4 ½, 124 ½)
The Shockers and Sycamores split their two meetings this season with both teams claiming wins on home court.
The Sycamores came away with a profit in this series, however, earning a cover at home and a push at Wichita State. The first meeting was settled by five points on Feb. 9 and the second game needed overtime before Indiana State won 73-63 on Feb. 19.
That means we can assume these two teams match up well, so you have to look hard at Wichita State getting 4 ½ points.
What the Shockers do well is rebound. They own, by far, the best rebounding margin in the conference (+6.6) and eight players average at least two boards per game. Those numbers might dwindle though if forward Phillip Thomasson can’t play.
He is listed as doubtful after a foot injury last game and he ranks fourth on the Shockers with 4.3 boards per game. It should be noted that the team that won the rebounding battle won the game in both meetings this season.
Indiana State has the worst rebounding margin in the conference (-2.1) and they give up size against the bigger Shockers.
What the Sycamores do much better than the Shockers though, is protect the ball. Wichita State has the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the MVC and they handed the ball over 20 times in the most recent loss to the Sycamores.
That’s worrisome, considering Indiana State has three players who average double figures. All-MVC team honorable mention Gabriel Moore scores 12 points per game and chips in with 4.8 assists while guards Marico Stinson scores 12.3 and Harry Marshall scores 10 ppg.
The Sycamores don’t play great defense with 67 points against per game, but freshman Isiah Martin led the league in blocks (55) and was named to the All-Freshman team.
But perhaps the most important element of this game is the total.
The over has prevailed in Indiana State’s last nine games while Wichita State has played over in nine of its last 10 outings. Over bettors also took the money in both meetings this season, which had totals of 124 and 121 ½.
Both teams are also scoring more points, and allowing more, than their season averages over their past five games, which almost makes you wonder if oddsmakers have overlooked something here. Not likely, but with the lack of defense from these teams lately, it’s tough not to jump on the trend.
Pick: over 124 1/2
Raji |