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Raji · 03-06-2008, 12:08 PM

Evansville vs. Missouri State (-13 ½, 128)

You can't be blamed if Missouri State makes you a little nervous to put your money behind heading into the Missouri Valley tournament.

This is a team that had high expectations heading into the season, but injuries and controversy held the Bears to a sub-.500 conference mark and they were the worst bet in the MVC at 10-17 ATS (against the spread).

The Bears now head into the conference amid reports that head coach Barry Hinson will get the axe at the end of the season no matter how Missouri State does in St. Louis.

If you believe their recent play is an indicator of how the team will respond, you like Missouri State’s chances of doing some damage this weekend. The school finished the year with four wins and covered spreads in its last six games, which includes an 86-83 win over top 25 team and MVC-leading Drake.

Forward Dale Lamberth enters the weekend as the hottest player in the conference with 78 points over his past three games and he was named conference player of the week on Monday.

Lamberth combines with fellow senior Devin Mitchell to give Missouri State one of the toughest front courts in the MVC, a conference that is more renowned for its guard play. The two forwards each average over 14 points per game and both are capable of double-doubling you on any given night.

Lamberth and Mitchell are the main reasons why the past four games have gone over the total for the Bears.

Missouri State’s biggest challenge will be making sure it shuts down Evansville’s perimeter shooting. Though the Aces are the lowest scoring team in the MVC with just 60.1 per game, they happen to be the best three-point shooters at 37.9 percent.

Unfortunately for the Bears, they are the second-worst in the conference at defending the trey and when Evansville beat them 84-65 back on Jan. 26, Missouri State allowed the Aces to go 12 of 22 from downtown. That's especially embarrassing, considering Evansville finished last in the conference this year with just three wins.

The Bears must have learned their lesson, however, because in the second meeting they allowed Evansville to shoot just six treys, only one of which went in. Missouri State pummeled the Aces 76-38 in that game, coincidentally, as 13 ½-point favorites.

Junior guard Jason Holsinger and guard-forward Shy Ely are the two Aces that Missouri State needs to watch. Holsinger can heat up from outside in a hurry and Ely can beat you inside or outside.

Evansville is a terrible rebounding team, though, and if the Bears can limit its long balls again, they shouldn’t have any problem Thursday.

Pick: Missouri State -13 1/2

Raji

03-06-2008, 12:08 PM	#1 (permalink)
Raji Moderator Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,237	MVC Tourney Preview and picks Evansville vs. Missouri State (-13 ½, 128) You can't be blamed if Missouri State makes you a little nervous to put your money behind heading into the Missouri Valley tournament. This is a team that had high expectations heading into the season, but injuries and controversy held the Bears to a sub-.500 conference mark and they were the worst bet in the MVC at 10-17 ATS (against the spread). The Bears now head into the conference amid reports that head coach Barry Hinson will get the axe at the end of the season no matter how Missouri State does in St. Louis. If you believe their recent play is an indicator of how the team will respond, you like Missouri State’s chances of doing some damage this weekend. The school finished the year with four wins and covered spreads in its last six games, which includes an 86-83 win over top 25 team and MVC-leading Drake. Forward Dale Lamberth enters the weekend as the hottest player in the conference with 78 points over his past three games and he was named conference player of the week on Monday. Lamberth combines with fellow senior Devin Mitchell to give Missouri State one of the toughest front courts in the MVC, a conference that is more renowned for its guard play. The two forwards each average over 14 points per game and both are capable of double-doubling you on any given night. Lamberth and Mitchell are the main reasons why the past four games have gone over the total for the Bears. Missouri State’s biggest challenge will be making sure it shuts down Evansville’s perimeter shooting. Though the Aces are the lowest scoring team in the MVC with just 60.1 per game, they happen to be the best three-point shooters at 37.9 percent. Unfortunately for the Bears, they are the second-worst in the conference at defending the trey and when Evansville beat them 84-65 back on Jan. 26, Missouri State allowed the Aces to go 12 of 22 from downtown. That's especially embarrassing, considering Evansville finished last in the conference this year with just three wins. The Bears must have learned their lesson, however, because in the second meeting they allowed Evansville to shoot just six treys, only one of which went in. Missouri State pummeled the Aces 76-38 in that game, coincidentally, as 13 ½-point favorites. Junior guard Jason Holsinger and guard-forward Shy Ely are the two Aces that Missouri State needs to watch. Holsinger can heat up from outside in a hurry and Ely can beat you inside or outside. Evansville is a terrible rebounding team, though, and if the Bears can limit its long balls again, they shouldn’t have any problem Thursday. Pick: Missouri State -13 1/2 Raji Last edited by Raji : 03-07-2008 at 11:10 AM.