Market `overreacts` to Baylor illness
Josh Hansen
Strep throat may have sportsbooks coughing up the dough when the Baylor Bears head into Southern Methodist Saturday night.
Last week, 17 members of the Bears missed practice with strep throat, including four projected starters and seven players vying for No .2 spots in their respective positions. The team dressed in half-pads for the two-hour workout, while coach Guy Morriss sent a number of players home to minimize the risk of infection to the rest of the team.
“Strep throat got us,” said Morriss.
“It takes about 48 hours to run its course, so we’ll probably have a few more missing tomorrow, too,” he added. “But, better this week than next. It’s just something you have to deal with.”
The news spread quickly to oddsmakers, who promptly dropped the Bears down from 4-point to 2 1/2–point favorites for Saturday’s season opener.
“That is a serious move,” says Expert David Malinsky. “Crossing over the key numbers of “4” and “3”, and yet what caused the move? Four starters and seven reserves missing two days of practice a full week before this game is going to be played.
"That information might have been worth the move of a half point, or a full point, but nowhere near how the market has reacted.”
It may stay there too. According to one linesmaker, there’s been little action on Baylor and until there is, bettors should expect the line to stick.
“I don’t really see us going back unless we take some serious action on Baylor,” says J.J., who wished not to use his last name.
“We had one guy take S. Methodist at +4, and another guy take it at + 2 ½. Obviously they probably figured ’17 guys out with strep throat’ but that strep throat can heal up quick. We`ll probably end up at [Baylor] – 3.”
By the sounds of things, it’s already healed.
“Practice tonight was excellent,” said Morriss Monday. “They were really flying around and the enthusiasm was good. They seemed really rested and mentally fresh. We just have to carry that into the game Saturday (at SMU).”
After finishing last in the Big 12 South in 2004, Baylor hopes to use SMU as a springboard into this season. The Bears finished with just three wins last year but have defeated the Mustangs in eight straight contests, covering four times in the process.
“The reports we got from the Monday practices were pretty good, so this could possibly have us looking to play on Baylor, instead of against,” adds Malinsky.
Oddsmakers have the total at 51 1/2.
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College Football Preview: Six must-see games
Brian Covert
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles
Line: Miami is a 3–point favorite for Monday’s game
Total: The total is set at 39-points
What a bizarre summer for the Florida State football program.
A starting quarterback diagnosed with Lyme disease, freshmen arrested, starters injured or deemed academically ineligible, you would think all these off-field headaches might make 76-year-old Bobby Bowden want to give up coaching.
But the NCAA’s all-time wins leaders says otherwise.
“People have said to me, `Boy, I bet this summer has been murder. How could you stand this summer?` Well, it happens all the time,” said Bowden. “This is a sign of the times.”
Bowden just needs to look to his running game and defense to start feeling better about things. Returnees Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker, who ran for 1,838 yards and 11 touchdowns last season combined, lead the offense while linebackers Ernie Sims, A.J. Nicholson and Buster Davis return to a defense that allowed less than 14 points last season.
The Miami Hurricanes are led by a defense that returns nine starters and should be very strong. But their Achilles Heel may be their offense which lost seven starters including their top rusher and receiver from last season. They also lost quarterback Brock Berlin who will be replaced by the inexperienced Kyle Wright.
That said, Miami beat Florida State twice last year and has not lost to their interstate rivals since 1999.
Texas A & M Aggies at Clemson Tigers
Line: Clemson is a 1 ½-point underdog at home.
Total: The total is set at 51-points
The Clemson Tigers were a disappointment a year ago. Preseason expectations were met with a 6-5 season that triggered a shuffle in the coach’s office with new offensive coordinator Rob Spence and defensive coordinator Vic Kroening joining head coach Terry Bowden in leading the Tigers.
Spence may have the biggest task, needing to revamp an offense that finished 110th in the country last season.
“There are some different thoughts and ideas,” said Spence who was the offensive coordinator at the University of Toledo the last four years. “Obviously, you`re going to see some things we`ve done in the past. There`s no question about that. But it`s not about schematics. It`s about effort and attitude and people playing together and coaching as one.”
The Tigers will unveil their new offense when they host Texas A & M Saturday. The Aggies will hope to avoid a season starting loss like last year’s 41-21 loss at Utah as 8 ½-point underdogs.
The Aggies are led by dual-threat quarterback Reggie McNeal and running back Courtney Lewis. McNeal had over 3,500 total yards last year while Lewis ran for 742 yards and nine touchdowns despite battling injuries all season.
A & M is 3-0 all-time versus Clemson including a 27-6 win as a 1 1/2-point underdog last season in Texas.
Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Line: The Hokies are 3-point favorites for the season opener
Total: The total is set at 42 ½-points
Marcus Vick’s legal troubles have been well publicized. This Sunday the younger brother of Atlanta`s Michael will try to give people something else to talk about when he takes to the field as Virgina Tech’s starting quarterback at North Carolina State.
Vick will not have to go at it alone. The defending ACC champion Hokies have experience and depth at all skill positions. As well their defense that gave up only 268 total yards per game last season returns ACC Defensive Freshman of the Year Vince Hall and junior cornerback Jimmy Williams who many say is the best cornerback prospect in all of college football.
They open against the Wolfpack, who handed the Hokies their only loss in the ACC last season, 17-16 as 7-point underdogs last Sept. 25.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orangemen
Line: Syracuse is a 1 ½-point favorite for Sunday’s game
Total: Oddsmakers have set the total at 44 ½-points
The Syracuse Orangemen and the West Virginia Mountaineers will hit the ground running Sunday when they meet in a key Big East contest in their season opener at the Carrier Dome. This has West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez concerned.
”Oh, I`d rather play non-conference games first, no question,” Rodriguez told reporters Monday. “Especially with a young team [like this]. I`d be lying if I didn`t say I`d rather be opening up with somebody easy at home.”
The Mountaineers lost eight offensive and six defensive starters from last year’s squad that went 8-4.
The big question is at quarterback where redshirt freshman Pat White has reportedly won the starter’s job from sophomore Adam Bednarik. West Virginia does return starting tailback Jason Colson who ran for 113 yards in the Mountaineers 27-6 win over the Orangemen as 15-point favorites at home last October.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Auburn Tigers
Line: Oddsmakers have made Auburn listed as 7-point favorites against Georgia Tech
Total: The total is set at 38-points
Questions abound in Auburn this year after losing quarterback Jason Campbell along with running backs “Cadillac” Williams and Ronnie Brown to the pros. Will new quarterback Brandon Cox be able to get the ball to some of the SEC’s most underrated receivers in Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu and Anthony Mix? Will the triumvirate of Tre Smith, Kenny Irons and Carl Stewart be able to fill the shoes of Williams and Brown in the backfield.
Saturday’s game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and their tough defense may go a long way to answering some of those questions. Georgia Tech returns nine starters to a unit that gave up less than 20 points a game last season.
These two programs, despite being close geographically, have met only three times in the last 20 years. Georgia Tech won their most recent meeting 17-3 as a 7 ½-point underdog in Atlanta in early 2003.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers
Line: Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite for their season opener
Total: Oddsmakers have the total set at 52 ½-points
Charlie Weis’ job will be to inject new life into an offense that has not ranked higher in the nation than 76th over the last five years. The former New England offensive coordinator will start by simply trying to make the game more fun.
“Football, as tough as it is, as much work as it is, you`re supposed to have some fun,” Weis said.
The first place to start will be with the running game which set a school record for futility by averaging only 127.4 yards per game last season. However Weis does have a potential stud running back in Darius Walker to work with. Walker set a Notre Dame freshman record with 786 rushing yards last season. The entire receiving corps returns along with a five-man starting offensive line that combined for 59 starts last season.
They travel to Pittsburgh to take on NFL-refugee Dave Wannstedt and the Pittsburgh Panthers. Pittsburgh returns 16 starters including dynamic quarterback Tyler Palko who led the Panthers to an 8-4 record and a share of the Big East title last season.
Palko threw for five touchdowns and 334 yards in Pittsburgh’s 41-38 win as an 11-point favorite last November.
JT
Sneaks