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UMDBookingRook · 10-08-2007, 08:30 PM

i only played one game yesterday (GB/CHI Over 41.5 Winner), this weekend was gross for NFL, glad i stayed away. Here's tonights analysis though, not sure if I'm playing yet. I keep wavering back and forth :

Weather:
The conditions for this game are much like what Dallas plays in at home. The temp will be very Dallas like (70's by kickoff) with rain being less than likely a factor (30% chance doesn't mean monsoon and under fellas). Turf playing surface. The only homefield advantage the bills have is their fans, who will probably turn against them after they get down 17-0 by the 2:00 mark of the 2nd quarter.

Statistics:
Statistically this game screams play Dallas to cover. Dallas is +7 in the turnover category while Buffalo is scratch at 0. Buffalo is dismal in every statistical category. 102.5 rush yards per game, 123.5 pass yards per game on offense for an average of 10.3 pts per game. On the defensive side they are giving up 148.0 rush yards and 282.3 pass yards a game while on average allowing 23.3 pts a game.

Dallas' stats couldn't be better. 152.5 rush yards and 288.3 pass yards per game with an average of 37.8 points per contest. Same story on defense, only giving up 80.5 rush yards and 219.0 pass yards (to teams who have to pass the entire 2nd half) for 18.0 pts a game.

Trends:
Dallas is 4-0 ATS (this season) and 3-1 (over/under)
Dallas is 13-7 ATS on turf (past 3 seasons)
Dallas is 1-3 ATS on Monday night (past 3 seasons)
Dallas is 4-14 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts (since 93)

Buffalo is 1-3 ATS (this season) and 1-3 (over/under)
Buffalo has absolutely no trends to support a play on them tonight

Final Consideratons:
Again, everything points to Dallas here. The jinx of all jinx though says bills..... nearly all the money is on Dallas (the spread, moneyline, and over). Vegas has a very good weekend if the Bills and the Under hit. The Bills defense is severely decimated, not something you want facing one of the top offenses in the NFL who can run and pass the ball on their own terms. Offensively, the bills are playing a qb who is making only his 2nd start against an aggressive, blitz happy defense. This game has already been played, look at the result of the Week 3's game @ New England (38-7 NE). Week 4 against the Jets (THE JETS!!) was the only time the Bills threw for more than 125 yards. It doesn't take a Haaaaaaavard grad student to notice that the Dallas D is a little bit better than the Jets. Big D also gets Terrence Newman and Greg Allis back at CB and ILB respectively which only helps.

How the game will go:
Barring crazy fumbles or a Romo misque, the Cowboys will jump out to a fast 14-20 point unanswered lead. The second half will be boring, Dallas pounding away with it's Barber/Jones 1-2 punch to control the clock and limit any potential momentum. That being said, I fully expect Wade Phillips on what would be obvious run situations (3rd and 2 up 24 pts) to play action and go downfield to Owens or Crayton. Buffalo will be lucky to score 14 in this matchup.

The Play:
By playing this game you are basically pitting Statistics vs. Vegas. Every stat says Dallas easy and thus the 80%+ money on Dallas' side. By taking the Bills you are simply GAMBLING that the NFL is completely corrupt and Vegas does have control on games.

Dallas +10.5
Under 46

10-08-2007, 08:30 PM	#1 (permalink)
UMDBookingRook HOF Poster Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: WI Posts: 1,065	MNF reality check. i only played one game yesterday (GB/CHI Over 41.5 Winner), this weekend was gross for NFL, glad i stayed away. Here's tonights analysis though, not sure if I'm playing yet. I keep wavering back and forth : Weather: The conditions for this game are much like what Dallas plays in at home. The temp will be very Dallas like (70's by kickoff) with rain being less than likely a factor (30% chance doesn't mean monsoon and under fellas). Turf playing surface. The only homefield advantage the bills have is their fans, who will probably turn against them after they get down 17-0 by the 2:00 mark of the 2nd quarter. Statistics: Statistically this game screams play Dallas to cover. Dallas is +7 in the turnover category while Buffalo is scratch at 0. Buffalo is dismal in every statistical category. 102.5 rush yards per game, 123.5 pass yards per game on offense for an average of 10.3 pts per game. On the defensive side they are giving up 148.0 rush yards and 282.3 pass yards a game while on average allowing 23.3 pts a game. Dallas' stats couldn't be better. 152.5 rush yards and 288.3 pass yards per game with an average of 37.8 points per contest. Same story on defense, only giving up 80.5 rush yards and 219.0 pass yards (to teams who have to pass the entire 2nd half) for 18.0 pts a game. Trends: Dallas is 4-0 ATS (this season) and 3-1 (over/under) Dallas is 13-7 ATS on turf (past 3 seasons) Dallas is 1-3 ATS on Monday night (past 3 seasons) Dallas is 4-14 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts (since 93) Buffalo is 1-3 ATS (this season) and 1-3 (over/under) Buffalo has absolutely no trends to support a play on them tonight Final Consideratons: Again, everything points to Dallas here. The jinx of all jinx though says bills..... nearly all the money is on Dallas (the spread, moneyline, and over). Vegas has a very good weekend if the Bills and the Under hit. The Bills defense is severely decimated, not something you want facing one of the top offenses in the NFL who can run and pass the ball on their own terms. Offensively, the bills are playing a qb who is making only his 2nd start against an aggressive, blitz happy defense. This game has already been played, look at the result of the Week 3's game @ New England (38-7 NE). Week 4 against the Jets (THE JETS!!) was the only time the Bills threw for more than 125 yards. It doesn't take a Haaaaaaavard grad student to notice that the Dallas D is a little bit better than the Jets. Big D also gets Terrence Newman and Greg Allis back at CB and ILB respectively which only helps. How the game will go: Barring crazy fumbles or a Romo misque, the Cowboys will jump out to a fast 14-20 point unanswered lead. The second half will be boring, Dallas pounding away with it's Barber/Jones 1-2 punch to control the clock and limit any potential momentum. That being said, I fully expect Wade Phillips on what would be obvious run situations (3rd and 2 up 24 pts) to play action and go downfield to Owens or Crayton. Buffalo will be lucky to score 14 in this matchup. The Play: By playing this game you are basically pitting Statistics vs. Vegas. Every stat says Dallas easy and thus the 80%+ money on Dallas' side. By taking the Bills you are simply GAMBLING that the NFL is completely corrupt and Vegas does have control on games. Dallas +10.5 Under 46 Last edited by UMDBookingRook : 10-08-2007 at 08:31 PM.