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Sportbook Guru · 09-16-2006, 08:38 AM

Hey guys...here is a breakdown of my partner LSU DAWG's SECnewsletters from week 1 and 2:

LSU DAWG Week #1 Newsletter

WINNER!
South Carolina - 6.5 @ Mississippi State - I like the Gamecocks because they have several weapons at the offensive skill positions, and Mississippi State has not improved their defense one bit from a year ago. Starkville is not that tough a place to play, and I certainly don't think Spurrier opens up 2006 with a loss there. I don't think it will be all that close either. I generally love picking home dogs, but not this time. I see South Carolina winning this game by about 17 points.

Loss
Cal +1.5 @ Tennessee - This is a tough game to pick for several reasons, namely that Tennessee is a giant question mark this season. How will they rebound from a horrible '05? You know the coaching staff really wants to win this game to make a statement. Additionally, Cal will experience an atmosphere in Knoxville that they just don't see in the Pac-10. But I can't get past the fact that I just don't think Tennessee has as much talent as everyone else thinks they do. Cal is a legitimate top 10 team, and they have outstanding players at the skill positions and a very underrated defense. Cal also has the running game to protect their lead once they get it. I like Cal to win this game in a mild upset.

WINNER!
Hawaii + 16 @ Alabama - Nothing makes me think that Alabama's offense will be "explosive" this season, especially in the very first game for new quarterback John Parker Wilson. Alabama should be able to run the ball easily against Hawaii, but that's about it. On the other hand, Hawaii is GOING to put up some points, and I think they'll be able to hang within a couple scores of Bama. Hawaii QB Colt Brennan is a perfect fit for their high octane offense and now, with a year of experience under his belt, he should flourish. Bama is breaking in two new safeties and a number of defensive players, and I like Hawaii with the points.

WINNER!
Auburn - 14.5 vs. Washington State - Auburn has been burned in years past with their openers in games such as USC and Georgia Tech (twice). Washington State seems to be a popular pick in this game, but I must be missing something because I just don't see it. I have been saying Auburn is the real deal this year before the national media jumped on the bandwagon. They have enough veterans at key positions to keep things under control in this game, and I don't think Washington State has the type of talent to hang with Auburn for long. WAZZU has a pretty good offense, but it won't be enough. Look for Auburn to run the ball at ease, thus opening up the play action passing that Auburn loves to use under offensive coordinator Al Borges. Auburn QB will pick apart WAZZU's defense once the running game is clicking. I actually think Auburn wins big in this one.

WINNER!
LSU -30.5 vs. ULL - LSU is simply on another level, and it will be VERY difficult for ULL to even find the end zone once. I think 30.5 is way too low for this spread, and I expect LSU to cover it easily. They will simply do what they want offensively. ULL runs a zone read offense (similar to Texas last year) with a mobile quarterback. But with LSU's speed on defense, it's simply not going to work. Also, in blowout games a year ago, Les Miles was quick to put in his backups; however, he did not slow down the offense. He continued to run the offense and throw the ball down the field. He's not afraid to run it up. I'm not a homer...I'll tell you when I don't think LSU will cover, but I love this game.

PUSH
Ole Miss -3 vs. Memphis - This was a tough one because Memphis beat Ole Miss last year. However, I think Ole Miss is a tad better and Memphis took a step backwards without DeAngelo Williams. Additonally, this game is in Oxford as opposed to Memphis a year ago. Ole Miss will have quarterback Brent Schaffer, who is new but has played in the SEC before. Ole Miss should also be improved a bit on defense with the return of All-American middle linebacker Patrick Willis. He will make a difference in a game like this. I like Ole Miss to win by about a touchdown in this game.

WINNER!
Louisville - 23 vs. Kentucky - In recent history, Bobby Petrino has never been afraid to run up the score, and Louisville has been scary good when they play at home. They averaged 55 PPG at home last year. 55! And their lowest output was 41. They put 63 on Oregon State, 56 on Rutgers, and 69 on North Carolina, and I would put the Kentucky program behind those 3 schools. Kentucky is a pretty bad team. Louisville has legitimate star power in QB Brian Brohm and RB Michael Bush. I wouldn't be suprised to see either invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony in December. They are that good, and their offense is going to be unreal this year. 23 is a lot against an SEC team, but I can't NOT take Lousiville in this game.

WINNER!
USC --8.5 at Arkansas - I do believe that Arkansas will be much improved this year, but I don't see them staying within 10 points of USC on Saturday. Arkansas's projected starting QB, Casey Dick, got injured halfway through fall camp, thrusting Robert Johnson into that role. Johnson started some last year but was benched, and now he's going against USC only after taking first-team reps for half of fall camp. In addition, Arkansas's superstar running back Darren McFadden is out for this game with a broken toe. Many people liked Arkansas here with Dick and McFadden, but the line hasn't moved since those two went down. I don't understand it, but I'm not asking questions. I am just going to cash in! USC will also be breaking in a new QB as well as many skill players, and they'll be doing it against a pretty tough Arkansas defense. But even against Texas's defense last year, they still put up 38 points. I think USC wilI actually be quite focused to prove they haven't taken a step back. I love this game and am making it my pick of the week!!

WINNER!
Florida - 20 vs. Southern Miss - The first thing that jumped out at me for this game is that Southern Miss generally plays good defense and Florida has 4 new starters along the offensive line. Florida's offese was horrible against good defense last year, but was able to put up big numbers on average teams. But, Florida's athletes are just on another level from Southern Miss. What I couldn't get past in this game is that Southern Miss is breaking in a new quarterback, in the Swamp (which will be crazy with the expectations they have this year), against a very VERY good Florida defense. Points will be extremely hard to come by in this game for Southern Miss. So long as Florida can get to 35 points, which they should, they'll cover this spread easily.

WINNER!
Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan - Vandy never wins big games like this, but they always come to play. You don't seem them get completley blown out too often. We all know they lost quarterback Jay Cutler, who was the biggest reason Vandy almost went bowling last year, but most of their other players return. I'm not saying, by any means, that Vandy will be any good this year, but I think they'll have a good showing in Ann Arbor. In addition, in recent history Michigan has never been a team that put 40 or 50 points on the board too often. 25.5 points is just too much for me, and I like Vandy with the points on the road.

LSU DAWG Week #2 Newsletter

WINNER!
Air Force + 20 @ Tennessee - Everyone is quickly jumping on Tennessee's bandwagon after their very impressive win over Cal in Week 1. I'm telling you to hold off just a tad, as I am still not sold on Tennessee. They do not suddenly become the "class of the SEC" after just one impressive win. It's also not too early in the season to have a letdown game after their impressive win. Add the fact that the Vols play Florida the following week, and this AF game looks like a solid play as I seriously doubt the Vols will be playing with any fire.

WINNER!
UGA - 3.5 @ South Carolina - This is one of those games that I personally just go "wow, easy money". Before the year, this was hyped as upset and a lot of people had it circled on the calendar. I had it circled too, as a moneymaker. Georgia is on a WHOLE other level, talent-wise over South Carolina. Although South Carolina's defense played well in the opener, their offense looked pretty bad. The Cocks will come out fired up in their home opener, but Georgia will grind them down and eventually out-talent them. The Cocks traditionally give UGA a ton of trouble, but 3.5 is WAY TOO NICE to pass up. I love the Dawgs by about 14 in this one and am making it my pick of the week!

WINNER!
Florida - 23 vs. UCF - I'm not sure why Florida keeps getting relatively low spreads. Central Florida is an improving team, but they are nowhere near the league of the Gators. UCF averaged just 2.6 yards per rush against Villanova, so I certainly don't expect them to do a thing against Florida's defense. With that said, I think if Florida can get to 35 points in this game, which it should without much trouble, then they'll cover this spread rather easily. I like this pick a lot.

WINNER!
Auburn - 20.5 @ Mississippi State - I like this one a lot. I am very much on the Auburn bandwagon this season. Even though Mississippi State got blanked last week in the opener, I thought they had something to build on with their defense, which is very good. Their offense; however, won't be able to score much against Auburn. In fact, they may get blanked again. I think this game will be somewhere along the lines of 34-7, and I think Auburn's running game takes over early.

WINNER!
LSU - 16.5 vs. Arizona - Arizona brings a solid defense and not much else into Tiger Stadium in front of what's sure to be a hostile crowd. Many pegged Arizona as a team that would be much improved this year, but after last week's poor outing against BYU, nobody is quite sure what to think. We do know that LSU has an enormous amount of talent, especially defensively and it will be very difficult for Arizona to score points. I like LSU by about 20 in this game, with about a 35-14 score, but I'm not nearly as confident in my Tigers covering as I was last week. It's a strong play, but not a lock like a week ago.

Loss
Alabama - 16 vs. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt won for me last week, but I'm not riding that horse anymore. That was more of an anti-Michigan pick than a Vandy pick. I like Alabama to cover the spread in this game, even though Vandy usually gives them fits. Alabama should be in control of this game offensively and defensively. They struggled last week more because of Hawaii's offense than any fault of their own. Vandy does not present such a threat. Lastly, Bama will be very focused this week at practice after their near-loss to Hawaii, which should lead to a crisper performance.

WINNER!
Utah State + 28.5 @ Arkansas - Utah State is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A, but I'm going with them Saturday. Arkansas under Houston Nuttt is notorious for starting out seasons slowly and this year seems to be no different as evidenced by last week's thumping by USC. In addition, their top running back, Darren McFadden, is still gimpy from a broken toe, and they will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. I like Arkansas this year and will pick them a lot later in the year, but for now, it's a good play to go against them. 28.5 is too much for me to take Arkansas this weekend.

WINNER!
Missouri - 10 vs. OIe Miss - My first impression of this game was that this spread was way too big. Ole Miss did look much improved in their win over Memphis, especially running the ball. But Missouri is a legit bowl team this year, and they matchup extremely well with the Rebs. Missouri has a very good O-line and a QB that can really chuck it around. They rolled up almost 600 yards of offense last week, and I expect them to have success scoring again. Ole Miss ran the ball well against Memphis, but they will get outplayed on the line by Missouri and will struggle offensively. 10 is a lot, but I like Missouri by about 14 here.

09-16-2006, 08:38 AM	#5 (permalink)
Sportbook Guru Banned Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 225	Hey guys...here is a breakdown of my partner LSU DAWG's SECnewsletters from week 1 and 2: LSU DAWG Week #1 Newsletter WINNER! South Carolina - 6.5 @ Mississippi State - I like the Gamecocks because they have several weapons at the offensive skill positions, and Mississippi State has not improved their defense one bit from a year ago. Starkville is not that tough a place to play, and I certainly don't think Spurrier opens up 2006 with a loss there. I don't think it will be all that close either. I generally love picking home dogs, but not this time. I see South Carolina winning this game by about 17 points. Loss Cal +1.5 @ Tennessee - This is a tough game to pick for several reasons, namely that Tennessee is a giant question mark this season. How will they rebound from a horrible '05? You know the coaching staff really wants to win this game to make a statement. Additionally, Cal will experience an atmosphere in Knoxville that they just don't see in the Pac-10. But I can't get past the fact that I just don't think Tennessee has as much talent as everyone else thinks they do. Cal is a legitimate top 10 team, and they have outstanding players at the skill positions and a very underrated defense. Cal also has the running game to protect their lead once they get it. I like Cal to win this game in a mild upset. WINNER! Hawaii + 16 @ Alabama - Nothing makes me think that Alabama's offense will be "explosive" this season, especially in the very first game for new quarterback John Parker Wilson. Alabama should be able to run the ball easily against Hawaii, but that's about it. On the other hand, Hawaii is GOING to put up some points, and I think they'll be able to hang within a couple scores of Bama. Hawaii QB Colt Brennan is a perfect fit for their high octane offense and now, with a year of experience under his belt, he should flourish. Bama is breaking in two new safeties and a number of defensive players, and I like Hawaii with the points. WINNER! Auburn - 14.5 vs. Washington State - Auburn has been burned in years past with their openers in games such as USC and Georgia Tech (twice). Washington State seems to be a popular pick in this game, but I must be missing something because I just don't see it. I have been saying Auburn is the real deal this year before the national media jumped on the bandwagon. They have enough veterans at key positions to keep things under control in this game, and I don't think Washington State has the type of talent to hang with Auburn for long. WAZZU has a pretty good offense, but it won't be enough. Look for Auburn to run the ball at ease, thus opening up the play action passing that Auburn loves to use under offensive coordinator Al Borges. Auburn QB will pick apart WAZZU's defense once the running game is clicking. I actually think Auburn wins big in this one. WINNER! LSU -30.5 vs. ULL - LSU is simply on another level, and it will be VERY difficult for ULL to even find the end zone once. I think 30.5 is way too low for this spread, and I expect LSU to cover it easily. They will simply do what they want offensively. ULL runs a zone read offense (similar to Texas last year) with a mobile quarterback. But with LSU's speed on defense, it's simply not going to work. Also, in blowout games a year ago, Les Miles was quick to put in his backups; however, he did not slow down the offense. He continued to run the offense and throw the ball down the field. He's not afraid to run it up. I'm not a homer...I'll tell you when I don't think LSU will cover, but I love this game. PUSH Ole Miss -3 vs. Memphis - This was a tough one because Memphis beat Ole Miss last year. However, I think Ole Miss is a tad better and Memphis took a step backwards without DeAngelo Williams. Additonally, this game is in Oxford as opposed to Memphis a year ago. Ole Miss will have quarterback Brent Schaffer, who is new but has played in the SEC before. Ole Miss should also be improved a bit on defense with the return of All-American middle linebacker Patrick Willis. He will make a difference in a game like this. I like Ole Miss to win by about a touchdown in this game. WINNER! Louisville - 23 vs. Kentucky - In recent history, Bobby Petrino has never been afraid to run up the score, and Louisville has been scary good when they play at home. They averaged 55 PPG at home last year. 55! And their lowest output was 41. They put 63 on Oregon State, 56 on Rutgers, and 69 on North Carolina, and I would put the Kentucky program behind those 3 schools. Kentucky is a pretty bad team. Louisville has legitimate star power in QB Brian Brohm and RB Michael Bush. I wouldn't be suprised to see either invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony in December. They are that good, and their offense is going to be unreal this year. 23 is a lot against an SEC team, but I can't NOT take Lousiville in this game. WINNER! USC --8.5 at Arkansas - I do believe that Arkansas will be much improved this year, but I don't see them staying within 10 points of USC on Saturday. Arkansas's projected starting QB, Casey Dick, got injured halfway through fall camp, thrusting Robert Johnson into that role. Johnson started some last year but was benched, and now he's going against USC only after taking first-team reps for half of fall camp. In addition, Arkansas's superstar running back Darren McFadden is out for this game with a broken toe. Many people liked Arkansas here with Dick and McFadden, but the line hasn't moved since those two went down. I don't understand it, but I'm not asking questions. I am just going to cash in! USC will also be breaking in a new QB as well as many skill players, and they'll be doing it against a pretty tough Arkansas defense. But even against Texas's defense last year, they still put up 38 points. I think USC wilI actually be quite focused to prove they haven't taken a step back. I love this game and am making it my pick of the week!! WINNER! Florida - 20 vs. Southern Miss - The first thing that jumped out at me for this game is that Southern Miss generally plays good defense and Florida has 4 new starters along the offensive line. Florida's offese was horrible against good defense last year, but was able to put up big numbers on average teams. But, Florida's athletes are just on another level from Southern Miss. What I couldn't get past in this game is that Southern Miss is breaking in a new quarterback, in the Swamp (which will be crazy with the expectations they have this year), against a very VERY good Florida defense. Points will be extremely hard to come by in this game for Southern Miss. So long as Florida can get to 35 points, which they should, they'll cover this spread easily. WINNER! Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan - Vandy never wins big games like this, but they always come to play. You don't seem them get completley blown out too often. We all know they lost quarterback Jay Cutler, who was the biggest reason Vandy almost went bowling last year, but most of their other players return. I'm not saying, by any means, that Vandy will be any good this year, but I think they'll have a good showing in Ann Arbor. In addition, in recent history Michigan has never been a team that put 40 or 50 points on the board too often. 25.5 points is just too much for me, and I like Vandy with the points on the road. LSU DAWG Week #2 Newsletter WINNER! Air Force + 20 @ Tennessee - Everyone is quickly jumping on Tennessee's bandwagon after their very impressive win over Cal in Week 1. I'm telling you to hold off just a tad, as I am still not sold on Tennessee. They do not suddenly become the "class of the SEC" after just one impressive win. It's also not too early in the season to have a letdown game after their impressive win. Add the fact that the Vols play Florida the following week, and this AF game looks like a solid play as I seriously doubt the Vols will be playing with any fire. WINNER! UGA - 3.5 @ South Carolina - This is one of those games that I personally just go "wow, easy money". Before the year, this was hyped as upset and a lot of people had it circled on the calendar. I had it circled too, as a moneymaker. Georgia is on a WHOLE other level, talent-wise over South Carolina. Although South Carolina's defense played well in the opener, their offense looked pretty bad. The Cocks will come out fired up in their home opener, but Georgia will grind them down and eventually out-talent them. The Cocks traditionally give UGA a ton of trouble, but 3.5 is WAY TOO NICE to pass up. I love the Dawgs by about 14 in this one and am making it my pick of the week! WINNER! Florida - 23 vs. UCF - I'm not sure why Florida keeps getting relatively low spreads. Central Florida is an improving team, but they are nowhere near the league of the Gators. UCF averaged just 2.6 yards per rush against Villanova, so I certainly don't expect them to do a thing against Florida's defense. With that said, I think if Florida can get to 35 points in this game, which it should without much trouble, then they'll cover this spread rather easily. I like this pick a lot. WINNER! Auburn - 20.5 @ Mississippi State - I like this one a lot. I am very much on the Auburn bandwagon this season. Even though Mississippi State got blanked last week in the opener, I thought they had something to build on with their defense, which is very good. Their offense; however, won't be able to score much against Auburn. In fact, they may get blanked again. I think this game will be somewhere along the lines of 34-7, and I think Auburn's running game takes over early. WINNER! LSU - 16.5 vs. Arizona - Arizona brings a solid defense and not much else into Tiger Stadium in front of what's sure to be a hostile crowd. Many pegged Arizona as a team that would be much improved this year, but after last week's poor outing against BYU, nobody is quite sure what to think. We do know that LSU has an enormous amount of talent, especially defensively and it will be very difficult for Arizona to score points. I like LSU by about 20 in this game, with about a 35-14 score, but I'm not nearly as confident in my Tigers covering as I was last week. It's a strong play, but not a lock like a week ago. Loss Alabama - 16 vs. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt won for me last week, but I'm not riding that horse anymore. That was more of an anti-Michigan pick than a Vandy pick. I like Alabama to cover the spread in this game, even though Vandy usually gives them fits. Alabama should be in control of this game offensively and defensively. They struggled last week more because of Hawaii's offense than any fault of their own. Vandy does not present such a threat. Lastly, Bama will be very focused this week at practice after their near-loss to Hawaii, which should lead to a crisper performance. WINNER! Utah State + 28.5 @ Arkansas - Utah State is one of the worst teams in Division 1-A, but I'm going with them Saturday. Arkansas under Houston Nuttt is notorious for starting out seasons slowly and this year seems to be no different as evidenced by last week's thumping by USC. In addition, their top running back, Darren McFadden, is still gimpy from a broken toe, and they will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. I like Arkansas this year and will pick them a lot later in the year, but for now, it's a good play to go against them. 28.5 is too much for me to take Arkansas this weekend. WINNER! Missouri - 10 vs. OIe Miss - My first impression of this game was that this spread was way too big. Ole Miss did look much improved in their win over Memphis, especially running the ball. But Missouri is a legit bowl team this year, and they matchup extremely well with the Rebs. Missouri has a very good O-line and a QB that can really chuck it around. They rolled up almost 600 yards of offense last week, and I expect them to have success scoring again. Ole Miss ran the ball well against Memphis, but they will get outplayed on the line by Missouri and will struggle offensively. 10 is a lot, but I like Missouri by about 14 here.