Sox/Sox Preview
The last two World Series champions will meet in a rematch from last year’s opening round of the American League Playoffs. Chicago swept the then defending champion Boston Red Sox 3-0, with especially good use of the number five. In the first game, the White Sox hung a 5-run first inning on the Red Sox on the way to a 14-2 blowout at U.S. Cellular Field. In the 2nd game trailing 4-0, Chicago scored 5 runs in the 5th inning and made that score hold up. When both teams returned to Bean Town, the White Sox won 5-3 to conclude the series, as you might have guessed by now as +155 underdogs.
Boston comes into this heavily anticipated rematch from a possible look ahead situation, having lost a 4-game series at Tampa Bay. The current World Series champions just completed taking 3 of 4 against Baltimore. This series should bring back memories for fans of the old Pittsburgh Pirates teams of the late 1970’s who were affectionately known as the “Lumber Company”. The White Sox are first in runs scored and home runs in the American League and 2nd in batting average, slugging percentage and total bases. The Red Sox are not far behind in most categories, being 4th in runs scored, 5th in BA and SL PTC. Boston hitters are notoriously patient and lead the AL in on-base percentage.
As Boston seeks a morsel of redemption, they will have to face one of the best home pitchers since the beginning of the new millennium. Mark Buehrle has won more games at home then any other pitcher this decade and is again 5-1 this season with a 2.81 ERA. The left-hander is off the worst start of his career, when he gave up 11 runs against the Cubs last Sunday. The easiest way to describe Buehrle’s effectiveness as a home pitcher is his 22-5 (+14.8 Units) record against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (White Sox Record) He’ll be matched against rookie John Lester who has impressed everyone with his poise and ability in not losing in five starts. If the White Sox can take an early lead, take note they are 18-3 +14.1 units in games decided by 2 or 3 runs.
The next two afternoon games should offer great pitching match-ups between these exceptional squads. Saturday has Josh Beckett for Boston, against Freddy Garcia for White Sox. Beckett had won three straight until Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir hung zeroes on the board against Boston, ending the streak. Beckett and friends are 5-5 when he pitches on the road; however 4-0 when pitching in daylight. Garcia continues to win for the White Sox with a 12-5 record in his starts. The biggest problem for Garcia which sharp cappers have noticed, is his diminishing number of strikeouts per innings pitched for a 3rd straight year. Expect Chicago to be a slight favorite.
The last game before the All-Star break for both teams has undefeated Jose Contreras against Curt Schilling. Contreras is 9-0 this season and has won 17 consecutive decisions dating back to 2005. He will face the grim task of trying to extend this streak one more game against a tough hitting Red Sox line-up. Schilling gave up three home runs in a loss to the D-Rays to drop his record to 10-3. The 39-year old right-hander is 2-0 at ‘The Cell’ with a 0.90 ERA in three career appearances. Sportsbooks like SportingBetUSA.com will have a tough choice to make a solid line on this game.
The White Sox come in with a distinct home field advantage at 32-12, while the BoSox are a pedestrian 25-22 as the visitor. Oddmakers have had the beat on Totals on these heavy hitting teams with a combined record of 47-39, favoring the Over.
If you plan on going to the games on the South Side this weekend or are interested in laying a few dollars on a game or the series, expect three hours to be the norm for each game to secure the desired results with this many bats, even with all the great pitching. Chicago is a -135 favorite to take the series at books offering such numbers.
JT
Sneaks